A stone stirs up a thousand waves!
The market generally believes that it is a good thing for banks to issue brokerage licenses to two banks on a pilot basis.
I guess we should choose two from ICBC, CCB and ABC. The corporate governance, business scale and overall operating conditions of state-owned big banks are good, which is conducive to participating in the competition in the securities industry and cultivating leading brokers who can compete with international big brokers. Previously, Bank of China had obtained the license of "BOC International Securities".
At present, the valuation of bank stocks is at a historical low in terms of P/E ratio, P/B ratio and stock price performance. The Shanghai Composite Index hovers below 3,000 points, which is not unrelated to the continued downturn of the banking sector index.
Bank stocks account for a high proportion in the Shanghai Composite Index. Once the value of bank stocks is restored and a wave of market starts, A shares will usher in a wave of index rise.
As for whether there will be a big bull market, it is not easy to judge for the time being.
Personally, I think the conditions for a big bull market are not fully met.
The issuance of brokerage licenses by banks is conducive to the big bull market in the stock market.
First, it is beneficial to the stock market. Banks have a wide range of customer resources and many sources of funds. With the brokerage license, they have opened up the interconnection between banks and the stock market, providing sufficient customers and sources of funds for the stock market to input reserve forces, which is conducive to the long-term development of the stock market and the arrival of the big bull market.
Second, it is beneficial to banks. Banks have another source of income. At present, the valuation of the banking sector is low, which is lower than the net assets for a long time and has a large market value. The stock price has never had a chance to show it. Although it is an old saying and a new topic now, the stock market is looking forward to the theme. Now that there is a favorable outlet, the bank index accounts for a high proportion, which can only promote the rise and immediately have an immediate bull market effect.
Third, brokers are bearish and neutral. Heavy internet brokerage stocks, when they saw the bank issuing a brokerage license, their first reaction was that the brokerage was not good and the bank robbed the business. Think about it carefully, it should be neutral and objective. Financial mixed operation is the inevitable trend of marketization. Banks issue brokerage licenses, and brokers also engage in microfinance business. Banking licenses will be issued in the future, and the two complement each other. From the national level, financial services are fully open to the outside world, and it is necessary to enlarge and strengthen domestic financial institutions, build head brokers, and combine banks and securities to develop each other. Bank-controlled brokers also have precedents. Now it will be short-term for existing brokers to issue brokerage licenses by pilot banks.
The big bull market will not come soon, but it is not far away. Because big funds didn't get enough chips at the bottom, the external market still fluctuated greatly, and the international financial order didn't return to normal. However, being able to issue brokerage licenses to at least two commercial banks can be understood as an increase in the importance attached to the securities market. Expectations for the bull market can be raised.
After all, compared with the Asia-Pacific stock markets in Europe and America, A shares are still at the level of more than a decade ago, and there are almost no long cows, ranging from one year to six months. But the big money that can smell the bull market has already begun to be laid out at the bottom. This year, the foreign economic situation is so chaotic, the stock market has plummeted collectively, and A shares are still as stable as Mount Tai, indicating that A shares can rise after falling. Moreover, A shares have been considered by many wind rating agencies on Wall Street as the next explosion point of the global secondary market. Many big coffees have already laid out A-shares through Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect, and almost all wind ratings have upgraded their A-shares.
In addition, for the continuous liberalization of brokerage licenses, first, foreign investors are allowed to invest in brokers, and now issuing brokerage licenses to banks obviously gives the securities market more opportunities to make money. Where does the securities industry make money? It is also determined by the volume of A shares. Last year's market, which only lasted for more than two months, pushed up the annual stamp duty by more than 400 billion yuan. In the future, if A-shares are revitalized and get out of the long-term slow cattle, it is very likely to collect trillions of stamp duty every year, which is another super cake after the property market. The author thinks that the candle of this cake has been lit, and the predators are eager to try, so now they have eaten all the dishes, so the big meal is not far from the beginning.
I'm glad to answer your question.
First of all, this news has not been implemented, and it is still in the research stage, so I think this news is only good for bank stocks, but not good for brokerage stocks. There should be no bull market in the A-share market now.
The news that the bank issued a brokerage license had been released before, but it has not been implemented until now. This reminds me that in May this year, it was announced that it would re-study T+0, and the news came out that day, and people were in high spirits. During the A-share trading hours on Monday, most brokerage stocks rose sharply, but now let's look at brokerage stocks. From the release of T+0 news to today, have there been any major changes in the stock price and A-share index of brokers, so the news is only for some industries.
As we all know, this news is a positive factor for bank stocks, but don't forget that brokerage stocks also account for a relatively large proportion in the A-share market, so you think the A-share market will make the A-share index rise sharply because of this news, but I don't think so.
Finally, if you fantasize that there will be a bull market in the A-share market just because of this news, then your fantasy will definitely fail. The emergence of a bull market is an optimistic expectation of people's confidence in the stock market, economic development and enterprise prospects.
In essence, what can be brought about by issuing brokerage licenses to banks?
It is the CSRC that announces the news, but the law does not allow commercial banks to operate in mixed operations. This means that even if it is true, the law should be amended. It takes time.
As early as March of 20 15, the news came out, and the bull market ended two months after the bank shares rose sharply. This news has been reported every year since 20 15, but it has never landed. Personally, I doubt whether it will land this time.
In addition, if this is true, what will it bring to the market?
Let's talk about banks and brokers. The total profit of brokers last year was 654.38+023 billion yuan, while the total profit of banks and commercial banks was close to 2 trillion yuan. This means that brokers are not as good as banks by one tenth. Mixed operation of banks is equal to robbing the profits of securities firms. If this is the stock market, this is not a good thing for brokers?
The mixed operation of banks actually raises the requirements of risk control. Because depositors buy and sell stocks with banks (generally trust banks and think that banks will not lose money), once the market is unfavorable, there will be events similar to this year's crude oil treasure. In essence, I don't think it will be too radical for banks to liberalize market access conditions, but it will be tighter than brokers. This means that this is a stock market competition.
Of course, the entry of banks is conducive to reducing the financing cost of the market. For example, now the amount of financing is close to one trillion yuan, and reducing the interest rate of margin financing and securities lending is conducive to increasing the total amount of financing.
That's all, this concept has been used many times. Don't expect a bull market right away. After all, the world is at the peak of the second wave of epidemic.
In fact, the news came out on 20 15, so that the CSRC also specifically responded that the relevant research work was in progress and there was no clear timetable for promulgation and implementation. So I'm not sure whether this news is true or "old news and new speculation".
But even if it is true news, this brokerage license is actually not very attractive to banks. Let's look at the data.
From the perspective of different businesses, the brokerage business income (that is, commission) of brokers is really pitiful. Take the stock market as an example. At the beginning of the year, when the turnover of the two cities was the highest, the turnover of one day was one trillion. According to the current rate of 2.5 million square meters, all brokers can get a commission of 250 million yuan at most every day, and only 62.5 billion yuan in 250 trading days throughout the year.
There are so many brokers to divide, and the commission income that a broker can divide is very small. Although there are futures and bonds, they are still not enough. CITIC Securities' total income in 2065438+2009 is only 9.5 billion, and its profit is about 2 billion, so it may be disdainful to put it in banks.
Investment banking business, banks have long been doing, and all major banks have investment banking departments. It doesn't matter whether there is a brokerage license or not.
Securities underwriting business needs a brokerage license, but it is similar to brokerage business, and the overall market is not big. Let's take CITIC Securities as an example. In 20 19, the income of securities underwriting business was 4.3 billion, and the profit … need not be mentioned more.
Margin trading business, aside from financing, equity pledge banks can also do it, which is much larger than individual customers. Margin banks really can't do it, but the scale is too small and the demand is not great.
Look at the total data again. In 20 109, the brokerage industry 102 securities companies realized a total net profit of12,486 billion yuan, which was less than half of that of CCB. So banks may not be able to take a fancy to brokerage business.
So don't think about the bull market. At most, the bank will come to a wave of market.
Cut to the chase and answer you categorically:
You think too much, the bank will not usher in a big bull market by issuing brokerage licenses! Up to today, M 1 is currently 58 trillion, the market value of Shanghai stock market is 30.3 trillion, and the market value of Shenzhen stock market is 2 1 trillion. The total market capitalization of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 5 1.3 trillion, which is also there.
You know, the big bull market that started in 2007, M 1 is 10 times the circulating market value of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. Therefore, during that time, A shares soared from 998 points to 6 124 points, with no effort.
What about now? We have been "increasing the proportion of direct financing" and IPO, and we will usher in the comprehensive registration system of GEM. It won't be long before a large number of stocks will flood in. At present, the market value of the two cities is equivalent to that of rice. What else can we add?
Therefore, it is difficult to usher in a bull market by issuing brokerage licenses to banks. Faced with the huge market value of circulation, M 1 with a considerable scale can no longer support a whole bull market.
Some people retort that I take American data as an example. In 2009, the United States M1= 10.7 trillion US dollars, and the market value in circulation was10.7 trillion US dollars. 20 19 M 1=3.7 trillion, with a circulating market value of 47 trillion. They have no restricted shares. How did they get to the bull market for ten years?
The figures are correct, but they can't be counted like this.
The dollar is an international currency, and the dollar circulating around the world is naturally M 1 of the United States. According to your algorithm, the foreign exchange reserves of all countries have to be included in the M 1 of the United States. At present, the RMB is not internationalized as the US dollar, and Wall Street is the most important financial center in the world. China's stock market does not have the siphon capacity of US stocks. Therefore, the capital supply is naturally based on the domestic point of M 1.
There will be a bull market when foreign capital comes in completely.
Issue a brokerage license, adjust the index calculation method, and come to a bull market? Haha, Nong thinks too much!
Will the issuance of brokerage licenses by banks usher in a big bull market?
It was learned yesterday (June 27th). I think for the financial stocks as the mainstay of the market, the advantages outweigh the disadvantages, which is expected to lead the index out of the bull market rhythm, even the big bull market. Next, I will talk about my views on this matter for your reference.
First of all, the brokerage license is just one more business for banks. I think for banks, even if a brokerage license is issued, it is not necessarily necessary to do this business right away. For banks, it may be more pragmatic to choose to buy brokers. In addition, through the huge mass base of the bank, this business can indeed be made bigger and stronger. If bank stocks can be revalued, the expected valuation space will be larger, and this potential energy is likely to become an important cornerstone of the market.
Secondly, it is also good news for the brokerage industry. For the brokerage industry, with the entry of banking enterprises, the licenses of brokers are no longer scarce and the competition is greater. For brokers, it is bad, but for leading brokers, the industry pattern has been finalized, and the real challenge is the third-and fourth-tier brokers. Fortunately, they have many stories to tell about mergers and acquisitions. Generally speaking, it is also conducive to the development of the brokerage sector.
Finally, this is a kind of compensation for the10.5 trillion profit brought by the banking industry to the real economy this year. According to what the president of a bank said before, the money earned by the bank is embarrassing to say. After making a profit, the profit of the banking industry may be much less. However, at present, the valuation level of bank stocks is only 4-6 times humble. Even if the profit is halved, I think the valuation level is still extremely underestimated. Now issuing a license to a bank is like hitting a stick and giving a candy. But I think this is not just sugar, but a piece of sugar. Eight immortals from all walks of life show their magical powers when crossing the sea.
Overall, this should be a little catfish effect. On the one hand, it can play a catalytic role in the pattern of the brokerage industry, and the strong are stronger. On the other hand, it can also promote the integration of brokers and banks, and play a role of one plus one is greater than two. I still remember that after Tian Hong Fund boarded the aircraft carrier Alipay, it changed qualitatively and once became a hot fund company. So the water in the pond began to mix, even at the level of each family. But in any case, it can't shake the current brokerage pattern. We'll see.
Qian Qiu said, question and answer, happiness has connotation.
For the time being, there will be no economic fundamentals without a bull market. First, at present, there is only news that banks have issued brokerage licenses, and it is also said that two commercial banks will be piloted first to see the situation. At present, it is not known how banks will issue brokerage licenses. The issuance of brokerage licenses by banks will itself stimulate the stagflation banking sector in this round of rebound, and the banking sector is still at the bottom. The pharmaceutical sector hit 50, and the GEM index hit new highs. The banking sector took this opportunity to make up a wave of market, and then ended the rebound of 2646 points, which was also quite good.
Second, there are advantages and disadvantages. If banks develop brokerage business, can brokers also develop banking business? If brokers are not allowed to develop banking business, brokers can only merge small commercial banks and then realize bank+savings business. This will not only create competition, but also create new and uncertain industry changes, such as banks and securities firms. After all, I believe we will not just talk about establishing an aircraft carrier broker.
The bull market is already on the road, and opening the brokerage license does not mean that the big bull market is coming.
1. Opening does not mean that there are professionals to handle business.
2. How much profit can brokerage business bring to banks and whether it can bring long-term profits?
3. Just because a depositor opens a securities account doesn't mean that it will be used, which also involves people's understanding and habits of the stock market.
4. There may be a hype effect of short-term news. In the long run, it still depends on whether the business makes money or not. If bank stocks do not rise but fall, it is ok to buy some bottom positions as a portfolio.