With the rise for two consecutive weeks, the demand was further released and the transaction was more active. After a new round of stocking in Northeast China, the inventory basically meets the demand of the current month, and the downstream customers' acceptance of the current price has declined, gradually turning to wait and see.
Reasons for the continuous increase of urea price in this round;
1, futures took the lead in a strong rise to drive the popularity of the spot market. Since June 1 1, urea futures prices have been rising continuously under the background of strong commodity operation, and the current increase has exceeded 200 yuan/ton. The strong rise in futures prices has increased the confidence of the spot market in price increase, and the downstream actively entered the market through inquiry. At the same time, some futures were hedged to get goods, which increased the demand of urea market.
The market demand is picking up. First, the State Reserve will replenish its stocks in the market. This year's "Measures for the Administration of National Fertilizer Commercial Reserve" stipulates that the inventory reserve at the end of the third month in the annual reserve time shall not be less than 50% of the storage task, and the inventory at the end of the fourth to sixth months shall not be less than 100% of the guarantee task. In other words, the storage enterprises that started storage in September will have to complete half of the storage tasks by the end of this month. Second, the winter storage of chemical fertilizers started in an all-round way, and compound fertilizer plants in the northeast and south began to produce high nitrogen fertilizer, with the operating rate gradually increasing and the demand for urea considerable. Third, the start-up of plate and melamine enterprises increased slightly, and the demand for urea also increased.
3. Supply side superposition. 165438+1From the end of October, gas head enterprises in Southwest China and Inner Mongolia will start to shut down for maintenance one after another, and the daily output of urea will drop significantly; Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and other places were affected by the epidemic, and urea transportation was blocked, reducing the impact on foreign markets; The resumption of production of Shanxi Jincheng air pollution control plant has been delayed, and the specific time is to be determined.
Will the price of urea continue to rise?
In the short term, at present, the downstream receiving sentiment is acceptable, the urea plant holds enough orders to be sent, the price attitude is firm, and the market is expected to continue to rise. In the long run, from the middle and late days of 10/65438+February to 65438+February, the demand for urea national storage, winter storage of chemical fertilizers, export direction, winter wax fertilizer for wheat in the north and top dressing for rice in the south will continue to advance, and after the end of 10, gas-head enterprises on the supply side will stop for maintenance one after another. Coupled with environmental inspection, epidemic situation and other uncertain factors, urea supply situation is not optimistic. The insiders believe that the current urea market may have started a new round of rising cycle, and then the urea price will continue to run strongly in the multi-party game between supply and demand and market mentality, but the excessive rise may inhibit the release of demand to a certain extent, and does not rule out the possibility of a small correction of price stagflation. Later, we should pay attention to the delivery and demand follow-up in northwest and other places.