RRR last cut production in early July. In the third quarter, commodities and other commodities strengthened, with A-share cyclical stocks leading the gains, new energy sectors and cyclical stocks leading the gains, but most of the low-valued blue-chip stocks were still depressed and real estate regulation was still severe; During the RRR cut in February, there was an obvious style change in the stock market within 65,438 days, and the regulators expressed the real estate more positively.
Some insiders believe that the downgrade makes the A-share style conversion sustainable in the New Year market, and blue-chip stocks have greater opportunities in the New Year market; In terms of the property market, it is expected that the property market will pick up at the end of the year and in 2022; After experiencing the high point in the third quarter, commodities are expected to have limited upside in the future.
A shares: New Year's market or style change
Will the "steady growth" A-share New Year market usher in a big style switch?
65438+ The expected release of RRR cut meat on February 3rd was implemented on the evening of February 6th. In the two trading days, the performance of A shares showed obvious differentiation. Value stocks represented by finance, real estate and its industrial chain (home appliances, home improvement, etc.). ) rose again, while the growth stocks represented by new energy sources fell for two consecutive days, reminiscent of the decline of the central bank at the end of 20 12 and 20 14.
The Cheese Fund told the First Financial Reporter that after seeing the rapid implementation of this round of RRR interest rate cuts, the market sentiment reaction was quite strong, mainly because the downward pressure on the economy gradually increased in the second half of the year and the market performance was relatively sluggish. The market has been expecting RRR to cut interest rates. However, it should be noted that this round of RRR cut released 1.2 trillion yuan of liquidity, but the MLF due this month was 950 billion yuan. Therefore, it is necessary to look at the positive liquidity objectively and be more positive for financial stocks in essence. The improvement of the real economy still needs to be observed.
Hu Yu, partner and research director of Cheng Nuo Asset Management Company, told the First Financial Reporter that if we continue to be optimistic about the performance of financial real estate in the New Year market, the index will soon enter a new round of rising cycle, and its current position is similar to the "best hit zone" in the third quarter of 20 14. From the cycle point of view, the time distance between the two high points of the Shanghai Composite Index is generally around 7 years, and it is expected that the high point will appear again in 2022.
In 20 18, the central bank released RMB 3.65 trillion in four RRR cuts. After nearly a year of comprehensive adjustment, A shares bottomed out on 20 1912440 on October 4th. On the evening of the same day, the central bank announced an overall RRR cut of 1 percentage point, releasing a total of about 1.5 trillion yuan. Before and after the Spring Festival, A-shares began a round of overall rising market, with blue-chip stocks rising to 202 1, and then adjusted for nearly 10 months, while some growth stocks represented by new energy continued to this day.
The last time the central bank lowered RRR was on July 9, 20021year. The central bank issued a comprehensive RRR reduction notice, reducing the deposit reserve of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points from July 15, and releasing long-term funds of about 1 trillion yuan. In the A-share market in the third quarter, the rise in commodities made cyclical stocks the dominant variety in the market this quarter.
Property market: The dark moment may have passed.
After the last RRR cut, the debt default of housing enterprises continued to appear, and sales fell sharply year-on-year. But this time, the "dark moment" of real estate may have passed.
In the past five consecutive months, the sales volume decreased year-on-year, and the monthly decline rate exceeded 20%, which also occurred in 2008 and 20 14. The industry believes that with the more positive attitude of the regulatory authorities, it is expected that there will be further positive measures in the future, even if the real estate tax is to land, the terms will not be too harsh.
According to the research report of CICC, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee held a meeting on February 6th to analyze and study the economic work in 2022. The meeting emphasized the principles of "keeping the word steady, striving for progress while maintaining stability" and "focusing on stabilizing the macroeconomic market". The tone is similar to that of the Central Economic Work Conference in 20 19, but the intention of supporting the policy is still obvious. The real estate policy that the market cares about is more active, and the epidemic prevention and control emphasizes "scientific, accurate and solid".
Zhang Wenlang, a macro analyst at CICC, said that the real estate policy was more active and promoted a virtuous circle. For the real estate policy that the market is more concerned about, the meeting has more ink in the limited space, and its position is positive and the overall position is more positive. In addition to proposing "promoting the construction of affordable housing", it also proposed "supporting the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers", and the meeting proposed "promoting the healthy development and virtuous circle of the real estate industry". It is expected that the policy will first pay attention to residents' mortgage loans and promote the circulation of real estate sales repayment to real estate development investment.
Du, a securities analyst, said that the year-on-year growth rate of national commercial housing sales declined for five consecutive months, with the monthly decline rate exceeding 20%, which also appeared in 2008 and 20 14. Since then, rescue policies have been introduced one after another. At this stage, the credit risk of real estate enterprises has spread, the pilot project in real estate tax reform has not yet landed, house prices in some cities have fallen, and buyers have a strong wait-and-see mood.
On February 3rd, 65438, the People's Bank of China, China's China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and China Securities Regulatory Commission collectively voiced their opinions in response to the real estate problem. The central bank said that it will cooperate with relevant departments and local governments to do a good job in risk resolution and maintain the stable and healthy development of the real estate market; The China Banking Regulatory Commission said that at this stage, according to different situations, we should focus on meeting the mortgage demand of the first suite and improved housing, and rationally issue real estate loans and M&A loans; The CSRC said that the next step will continue to maintain the effective play of the market financing function, support the reasonable and normal financing of real estate enterprises, and promote the stable and healthy development of the capital market and the real estate market.
Du Hao predicted that there will be more vigorous policies in the future. The pilot of real estate tax will be launched years ago, but the overall situation will be moderate to avoid further accelerating the decline in sales. At present, the local auction market is obviously cooling down, and the local government is under great financial pressure. The detailed rules are not expected to be too strict.
Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of RealData, believes that the Politburo meeting put forward that "supporting the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers", combined with the central bank's RRR interest rate cut to release liquidity, will bring practical benefits to the real estate market. Looking ahead, the national real estate market will continue to improve in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, while consolidating the bottom recovery of 5438+0 1 in June.
Commodities: The expected increase is limited.
RRR's interest rate cut has a certain boosting effect on the commodity market, but the insiders believe that the future increase is limited.
On the first trading day after the RRR cut, the black varieties closely related to real estate and infrastructure in the futures market increased significantly. As of the close of 65438+February 7, black futures led the gains, and the main contract of iron ore futures closed up by 6.72%; The main contracts of coking coal and coke futures closed up about 4%, followed by energy and chemical products, and the main contracts of liquefied petroleum gas futures closed up more than 6%. The main contract of crude oil futures closed up nearly 3%.
Zeng Ning, head of the commodities sector of CITIC Futures, believes that the improvement of macro expectations will push commodities to continue to fluctuate upward, mainly domestically priced commodities, such as black building materials closely related to real estate infrastructure, but globally priced commodities such as crude oil and non-ferrous metals will be more weakened by the downturn of overseas economy. Generally speaking, the trend of commodities in 2022 is not optimistic, demand tends to decline, supply constraints ease, and the center of gravity of commodity prices shows a downward trend.
After 5438+ 10 in mid-June, the demand side of bulk commodities was weak, and the prices of some varieties also fell sharply. Thermal coal futures have fallen all the way from the high price in 10, with a cumulative decline of more than 60%, and iron ore futures have fallen by nearly 50% since the beginning of July. Zeng Ning believes that the core reason for the previous weak demand was mainly the tightening of real estate credit. After the RRR cut, according to the estimate that the physical demand lags behind the credit cycle for about half a year, the demand for major industrial products will rebound after the second quarter of 2022. At present, the forward contracts of related varieties may be supported by expected improvement.
On February 7, 65438, nonferrous metal futures did not respond much. The main contracts of Shanghai copper and Shanghai tin futures closed up slightly by 0. 13% and 0.52%, while the main contracts of Shanghai aluminum futures closed down by 0.5%. Zhao Ying, a researcher at Zhuo Chuang Information Energy, believes that the original intention of the central bank to lower RRR is to reduce the adverse impact of the continuous rise in commodity prices on small and micro enterprises. Even with the improvement of market liquidity, it is expected that this part of funds will have limited effect on pushing up commodities.
Generally speaking, although the RRR cut has boosted the financial market to a certain extent, we cannot expect too much. Wei Gang, chief economist of Hengtai Futures, pointed out that China's economy is currently in a transitional stage from tight credit to wide credit, and it is expected that financial assets (bonds and stocks) will perform better than physical assets (commodities). It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the adjustment of next year's policy at the economic work conference on May 438+February and June.
Juan Li
Qi Qi