Factor 1: demand

Different wheat varieties have different needs. Now there are mainly hard winter white wheat and high-quality strong gluten wheat on the market.

1, demand for hard winter white wheat

The national output of hard winter white wheat is about 29 million tons. Among hard winter white wheat, medium gluten wheat has the largest demand, with an annual consumption of about 25 million tons.

2. Demand for high-quality strong gluten wheat

The demand for high-quality wheat is growing rigidly. In 2000, the total demand for grain processing wheat was 6.5438+0.8 million tons, 800,000 tons more than that of 6.5438+0.999, accounting for the total demand for wheat in that year. It is estimated that in 2002, China will need 3.6 million tons of high-gluten wheat for bread processing and 654.38+065.438+0.5 million tons for jiaozi flour and instant noodles.

Factor 2: Weather and quality

Wheat is a natural crop, and its yield is greatly affected by the weather. For example, when the season is good, the wheat harvest is good and the yield is high, whereas the yield is low.

The weather has a great influence on the price of agricultural products. In addition to paying attention to the supply and demand report of the Ministry of Agriculture, American futures investors are most keen on the weather factor. The planting time of winter wheat in China is from early (after cold dew) to late, the growth period of wheat is 230 days, and the harvest period is from late May to early June. The growth period of winter wheat is about 8 months; Spring wheat is sown at the end of March (early April) and harvested at the end of August (early September). During this period, climate factors, growth and harvest progress will affect wheat yield, and then affect wheat price. So it can be said that the weather determines the output and the weather determines the price.

Compared with hard winter white wheat, the quality of high-quality strong gluten wheat is more affected by climate. The quality difference of high-quality strong gluten wheat in different regions and years is mainly caused by different climatic conditions, which affects the yield reaching the standard.

Factor 3: Inventory

China's wheat stocks are huge, reaching more than 654.38 billion tons at the highest. In recent years, due to the continuous reduction of wheat production, there is a gap between production and consumption, and the inventory consumption is relatively large, which has been greatly reduced.

The annual stock of high-quality strong gluten wheat in China is less. In the mid-1990s, importing countries stored relatively more wheat (including wheat and American wheat), mainly high-quality strong gluten wheat. Due to long storage time, aging and declining quality, the price of wheat imported by the State Reserve is also low and competitive. Judging from the situation in recent years, the imported wheat sold by the State Reserve every year has a great influence on the price of high-quality strong gluten wheat in China.

The ending inventory is one of the most important data to analyze the trend of futures prices. If the inventory increases at the end of the year, it means that the supply of goods exceeds demand in that year, and the futures price may fall; On the contrary, it will rise. Factors affecting demand include consumer purchasing power, consumer preference, supply and demand of substitutes, population changes, changes in commodity structure and other non-price factors. From the seasonal factors, the seasonal price fluctuation of high-quality strong gluten wheat has certain regularity. The two festivals and the end of the season are the periods of higher prices.

Factor 4: National policy

The change of grain policy in China has a potential impact on wheat prices.

With the improvement of marketization and internationalization of wheat prices, wheat prices are mainly regulated by the market, and the influence of policies on wheat prices is getting smaller and smaller. The factors affecting the price of high-quality wheat are mainly reflected in the increase or decrease or selling of imported wheat reserves by the state.

Factor 5: Participation of institutional investors.

In the futures market, the investment direction of institutional investors will have a great impact on the price quotation, and the wheat market also exists. Investors should also pay attention to the direction of institutional investors in the process of wheat futures trading. Because institutional investors often participate in a variety for a long time and pay attention to the long-term trend of the varieties they participate in, investors should pay attention to it when analyzing the price trend.