In particular, Europe and the United States have recently faced great inflationary pressure, and they have entered the interest rate hike channel, especially the interest rate hike in the United States has a great impact on precious metals. Since the beginning of 2022, the Federal Reserve has started to raise interest rates three times, and each time the rate is larger than the last one. The first rate hike is 25 basis points, the second rate hike is 50 basis points and the third rate hike is 75 basis points. However, the continuous sharp increase in interest rates has not effectively curbed the inflationary pressure in the United States. In June 2022, the CPI of the United States was still as high as 9. 1%. Against the background of persistently high inflationary pressure, the Fed will definitely continue to raise interest rates in the future. According to the current market forecast, it is still possible for the Fed to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in July, and it is also possible to continue to raise interest rates substantially in the future.
Once the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates substantially, the dollar will continue to strengthen, and the market liquidity will be greatly reduced, which will have a greater impact on the precious metal market including gold, which is also an important reason for the recent sharp decline in some precious metals including gold and silver. From mid-April 2022 to now, the price of gold has dropped by about $300, which is more than 15%, and it has been in a downward trend for some time, and it may fall further in the future. However, there are also some bullish factors in gold at present. On the one hand, after the world enters the interest rate channel, the global economic growth rate is not optimistic, and many countries in Europe and America may fall into recession; On the other hand, the current geopolitical conflicts have not been effectively alleviated, and the international risk aversion is still high.
Under the influence of these bullish factors, once the market is in trouble, the price of gold may rise by a large margin. Therefore, the current trend of gold prices is very complicated, and there may be a significant decline or a significant increase. At this time, no matter whether you are long or short, you will face great risks. At this time, if the bank's investment customers easily invest in precious metals, the potential risk is very great. If you bet right, you may make a lot of money, but if you bet wrong, you may lose a lot of money. This kind of ups and downs may have a great impact on customers' transactions, and even some customers may wear positions. This situation has not happened many times in the past few years.
1 The case is 20 13 years, and the Chinese aunt bought gold at the bottom. 20 13 in April, the financial tycoons on Wall Street were all bearish on gold, and the price of gold fell for a short time. At this time, a group of Chinese aunts came out halfway. They bought gold in buy buy all over the world and pulled it up, which made the financial tycoons on Wall Street suffer a lot. Just when everyone thought that the Chinese aunt had defeated the Wall Street financial crocodile, I didn't expect that the price of gold began to fall continuously from 20 14, and once fell to about 1000 dollars when 20 16 was the lowest. Chinese aunts are firmly trapped until 20 19. Although the Chinese aunt didn't lose money in the end, it is actually very uneconomical to count the opportunity cost of investing in gold.
The second case is China Bank's crude oil treasure incident. Although crude oil and precious metals are two different investment products, their investment logic is basically the same. On April 20, 2020, the contract price of US WTI crude oil futures in 2005 plummeted to a negative value; On the morning of April 2 1, many investors' "crude oil treasure" accounts actually "exploded". Not only did all the original positions have been cleared, but even more than 260 yuan per barrel of oil had to be paid to the Bank of China. Some big customers not only lost their pants, but also owed tens of millions of dollars to the bank. The incident was very serious. In the end, Bank of China had to make a compromise, expressing its willingness to sign a settlement agreement with investors to exempt investors from "arrears", but did not compensate for the losses. This agreement was not accepted by all investors.
Finally, some investors sued China Bank to the court, and ruled that China Bank should bear all the losses of investors' positions and 20% of the principal losses, return the deducted margin balance in investors' accounts, and pay the corresponding capital occupation fee. In addition, China Bank was severely punished by the regulatory authorities, and China Bank and its branches were fined 50.5 million yuan. In this crude oil treasure incident, China Bank can be said to have suffered a big loss. After the Bank of China incident, major banks are very cautious about their future investments. Therefore, under the background that the current gold market faces many uncertainties and may face great fluctuations, banks close trading channels in advance to avoid some complications, which not only protects investors, but also avoids bank losses.