During this pricing cycle, international crude oil plummeted in one day due to investors' fear that the economic slowdown would lead to lower energy consumption, and American Oil (WTI) suddenly fell below 100 USD, with the biggest intraday decline exceeding 12%.
Since then, due to the inventory data, the US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 8.235 million barrels in July 1 week, and it is expected to decrease by10.43 million barrels. American oil rebounded again and returned to above 100 USD. As of the early morning of July 9th, Beijing time, WTI8 crude oil futures in August closed up 2.06 USD, or 2.0 1%, to 104.79 USD/barrel, with a weekly decrease of 3.36%. ICE Brent September crude oil futures closed up 2.37 USD, or 2.26%, to 107.02 USD/barrel, with a weekly decrease of 4. 13%.
Zhongxin Jingwei noted that since the beginning of this year, domestic refined oil prices have been adjusted by 12 rounds, with a cumulative increase of "ten rises and two falls", gasoline prices have been raised by 2,400 yuan/ton, and diesel prices have been raised by 2,365,438 yuan +00 yuan/ton. Since the last price adjustment window ushered in the second downward adjustment of domestic refined oil prices during the year, if this downward adjustment is implemented, it will usher in a "two-day losing streak" of oil prices, that is, the third downward adjustment during the year.
According to Zhongyu Information, as of July 1 1, the relative benchmark price of Zhongyu crude oil was estimated at -3.95%. It is estimated that the retail price limit of refined oil will be lowered by 340 yuan at 24: 00 on July 12.
According to Jinlianchuang's calculation, as of July, the change rate of 1 1 was -4.34%, and the average price of reference oil was $65,438 +007.72, so domestic gasoline and diesel should be lowered by 340 yuan/ton. As there is only one working day left before the price adjustment window, the decline may be 370-400 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to the price increase of about 0.3 yuan.
Jin Lianchuang pointed out that with the implementation of this price adjustment, except Haikou and Tibet, 92# gasoline in other major cities in China will bid farewell to the "9 yuan era". According to the capacity of the 50-liter automobile fuel tank of an ordinary family car, it takes about 15 yuan to fill up a tank of oil.
For the reasons for this round of downward adjustment, Longzhong Information believes that the main influencing factors include: the safe-haven demand of US Treasury bonds pushed the US dollar up significantly, and the US dollar index hit a new high in the past 20 years; The market is increasingly worried about the economic recession in the euro zone and the United States; Citibank warned that the oil price may even fall to $65/barrel at the end of the year; Citigroup cut its forecast for crude oil demand growth by about a third.
Afternoon, Zhongyu Information believes that global supply risks are still accumulating, and the risk of Russia's passive or active reduction of crude oil supply is still large, and the short-term market may continue to rebound and repair. However, the deterministic economic recession signal is constantly being released, and the probability of crude oil returning to the previous high level in a short period of time is already very small. It is predicted that the oil price will fluctuate above 100 USD in the next cycle.
Jin Lianchuang also believes that after experiencing a sharp drop, international oil prices closed up for two consecutive trading days late last week. On the whole, crude oil is expected to return to the volatile trend, and the new round of change rate may still maintain a negative start.
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