After the increase in liquidity, a large amount of funds entered the commodity market, pushing up the prices of various commodities. In addition to coal, the prices of various commodities, including oil, natural gas, copper mines and iron ore, have risen sharply in the past year or so.
Therefore, in this round of coal price increase, the increase in liquidity is one of the most direct reasons.
Secondly, the global economic recovery has increased the demand for coal. After 20021,with the continuous popularization of novel coronavirus vaccine in the world, the production and life of many countries in the world gradually returned to normal, and the global demand for energy further increased.
As the raw material of many industrial products, such as cement, chemical industry, coal-fired power plants and so on, under the background of economic recovery, the demand for electricity in society has greatly increased, and the demand for coal in industrial products has further increased.
In particular, the economic recovery in Asian countries has a great demand for coal, which leads to a short-term shortage of coal, which is also one of the main driving forces for the rise of coal.
Third, the "lack of gas" in Europe has led to an increase in the demand for alternative coal. Recently, due to the reduction of natural gas supply in Russia and northern Europe, coupled with cold weather and other factors, gas shortages have occurred in many European countries, and natural gas stocks have declined rapidly.
Therefore, the price of natural gas has been soaring. In the past month or so, the price of natural gas in Europe has risen a lot.
In the context of rising natural gas prices, the demand for coal as a substitute has also risen rapidly, resulting in a large increase in coal prices in the short term.
Fourth, the output of major coal producing areas in the world has declined. Although the global epidemic situation has gradually improved, production and life in many countries around the world have gradually returned to normal. However, some countries, such as Australia, South Africa and Colombia, are major exporters of global coal and are currently in the rainy season. Affected by factors such as heavy rain, labor shortage, and continuous transportation problems, some countries in the southern hemisphere, such as Australia, Colombia, South Africa, and Indonesia, have reduced their coal production, and the corresponding export volume has also decreased, further aggravating the global coal supply shortage.
Fifth, the speculation of capital. Although the superposition of various factors has promoted the rise of coal, I think it is not enough to support the increase of coal above 100%.
At present, the coal supply in China is still very abundant. Even if there is a certain gap in coal, the gap will not exceed 10%. In this context, the increase of coal exceeds 100%. I think it has a lot to do with some capital speculation.
For example, at present, the pit price of many coal mines is the same every day, and some coal mines can rise by one or two hundred yuan a day.
In addition to the rising price of coal pits, some traders also hoarded goods, which further aggravated the shortage of coal supply in the market and led to the rising price of coal.
I think the reason why these coal mines can bid at will is mainly related to the lack of market competition.
In the past few years, in order to reduce pollution and carbon emissions, many places have closed some small and medium-sized coal mines and merged them into some large coal mines. As a result, the discourse power and pricing power of large coal mines have been further enhanced.