On February 6, 65438, the central bank announced that it decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points on February 6, 65438 (except for financial institutions that have implemented the deposit reserve ratio of 5%). After this reduction, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is 8.4%. RRR interest rate cut released about 65,438+0.2 trillion yuan of long-term funds.
Experts interviewed by reporters said that the RRR cut by the central bank will release liquidity and benefit the bond market as a whole. It is predicted that the yield of 10-year treasury bonds may be below 2.7% next year under the catalysis of easing measures.
LAM Raymond, a senior analyst at Oriental Jincheng, told reporters that under normal circumstances, the monetary easing signal released by RRR's interest rate cut will boost the trading sentiment of the bond market and drive the bond market to rise. However, after the central bank announced the RRR cut at 65438 on February 6, the bond market fell at 65438 on February 7. The main reason is that the market generally expects the RRR cut to land soon, and the RRR cut is expected to be traded in advance, resulting in a sharp rise of 65,438 in the bond market on February 6. Therefore, the bond market fell by 65,438 points on February 7, mainly because the bond market took profits after the RRR cut boots landed.
The data shows that at the close of 65438+February 7, SSE government bond index fell slightly by 0.06%; The main contracts of various varieties of treasury bonds futures fell across the board. The ten-year main contract fell by 0.42%; The five-year main contract fell by 0.16%; The main force fell by 0.05% in two years.
LAM Raymond believes that the bond market brought by the RRR cut will be relatively short-lived, and it is expected that it will be difficult to see the debt cows that lasted for nearly one month after the RRR cut in July this year.
Looking back at July, the yield of 10-year treasury bonds dropped from 3.09% in July to 2.84% on July 30. 10 On February 7th, the yield of 10-year treasury bonds was 2.85%. Guo Yiming, investment consultant director of Jufeng Investment, told reporters that there is still room for the yield of 10-year government bonds to fall. In the short term, the RRR cut will once again raise the market's expectation of monetary easing, which will constitute a substantial positive for the bond market.
Any director of the national academy of economic strategy Financial Research Office told reporters that the RRR cut released the liquidity needed by the current economy and boosted the investment confidence in the bond market. At the same time, the downward interest rate is conducive to reducing the cost of bond issuance, alleviating debt pressure in all aspects, and helping to prevent and resolve financial risks.
It is expected that after RRR cuts, the bond market will once again enter the observation period, and the market will closely follow the marginal changes in economic fundamentals, the effect of credit easing and the trend of policies to find new trading lines. During this period, it will be difficult for the bond market to break the volatility pattern, long-term interest rates will be sorted out at a low level, and the yield of short-term 10-year government bonds will fluctuate between 2.80% and 2.95%. "LAM Raymond said.
Looking forward to the future bond market and investment opportunities, LAM Raymond said that in the medium and long term, the economy is still beneficial to the bond market. At the same time, in order to "stabilize the macro-economic market", macro-policies will continue to exert moderate efforts in the direction of steady growth next year, and the possibility of reducing RRR again in the first half of next year still exists, and the possibility of policy interest rate cuts is not ruled out. In other words, the RRR cut may not be the end of this round of monetary easing. Under the expectation that monetary policy is easy to loosen but difficult to tighten, the bond market is not pessimistic for a long time.
LAM Raymond predicted that the interest rate trend will generally fall first and then rise next year. Under the catalysis of easing measures such as continuing to reduce RRR or even cutting interest rates, the low yield of 10-year treasury bonds may hit below 2.7% in the first half of next year.
Chen Yucheng, a senior investment consultant of Jufeng Investment, told reporters that RRR's interest rate cut released the pressure on the debt side of banks. Subsequently, with the gradual stabilization and recovery of social financing, the credit status of real estate has been gradually reversed, and the probability of bond interest rate falling back and breaking through the previous low point in the short term is still high, and it is expected to move closer to 2.7% in the medium and long term.
Chen Yucheng said that the possibility of further reducing RRR would not be ruled out in the future. Considering the double pressure of real estate and domestic demand, monetary policy will remain loose in the first half of next year, but due to the lag of credit expansion, funds will remain in the financial market. In the medium and long term, stranded funds will continue to push down long-term interest rates.
"Overall, the China bond market is in a long-term bull market. In the medium term, with the fall of inflation and the continued economic downturn, as well as the re-enhancement of loose expectations under the RRR interest rate cut, the early rectification of the bond market is expected to end and a new wave of bull market is expected to start. " Guo Yiming said.
Tang Chuan, an expert in the expert database of the Ministry of Finance and the investment director of 360 Government and Enterprise Security Group, told the reporter that overall, the bond market has been boosted by the RRR cut, and it is expected to have a positive performance. However, due to the new rules of American capital market and global systemic risks, it is reasonable for China bond market to fluctuate in the short term. In the medium and long term, China's low-risk bonds, corporate bonds and corporate bonds issued by high-quality entities are all relatively high-quality investment targets.