The liquidation crisis refers to the possibility that investors can't close their positions at normal prices in the capital market. Investors need to be able to withdraw and transfer existing investment at any time. If they can't find a buyer who is willing to pay a reasonable price in a short time, investors will lose other new investment opportunities or face the loss of selling at a reduced price.
Liquidation crisis depends on the performance of capital commodity projects in the market, and projects that cannot be traded in the capital market have greater liquidation crisis; The liquidation crisis of long-term projects is higher than that of short-term projects; The more frequently traded items, especially securities, the more liquid they are. Investors' expected rate of return includes an additional liquidity ratio to compensate for the liquidation crisis.
Judging from the current situation of bond issuance in China, although the frequency of bond issuance is getting higher and higher, and the stock of the whole inter-bank bond is getting bigger and bigger, the crisis coefficient of realizing bonds in the secondary bond market has not decreased, that is, it is unlikely that bonds will be realized at a reasonable price. Therefore, rural credit cooperatives, as small and medium-sized financial institutions, must not blindly pursue the scale of bond investment and ignore the crisis of its realization, otherwise it will not only increase transaction costs, but also fail to obtain expected benefits and even cause economic losses.
The difficulty of converting different assets or securities into money is different. Generally speaking, savings deposits, checks, etc. It has the best liquidity, followed by stock foreign exchange, futures and bond investment, and real estate investment has poor liquidity. The "crisis of realizing real estate funds" refers to the fact that real estate commodities can't be realized or delayed due to changes in the time and way of realizing real estate commodities during the transaction, thus bringing losses to real estate operators.
Case Analysis of Liquidation Crisis Case 1: Prevention of Liquidation Crisis of Construction Project Investment
1. Grasp the proportion of allocation investment. The liquidity of different types of investments is different. The investment liquidity of construction projects is poor, and the liquidity of national debt is good. In order to ensure that when funds are urgently needed, they can be quickly converted into cash without loss of value, the more appropriate countermeasure is to implement matching investment. It's easy to cash in by putting some money into real estate and some money into national debt. Investors in construction projects should pay attention to: don't put funds in your hands or banks to ensure the supply in urgent need, because this will lose the opportunity to earn high profits or interest by using funds.
2. Choose projects that are easy to split and sell, and implement investment. Because the property with large value has poor liquidity, the property that is easy to be divided and sold has relatively good liquidity. Investing in those properties that are easy to split and sell can not only ensure high profits when owning the property, but also ensure that the property is easy to sell.
3. Avoid investing in construction projects with funding gaps. Because "semi-finished" projects are difficult to sell and the selling price cannot be raised, real estate investors should avoid making such investments in construction projects. Therefore, investors in construction projects should make good arrangements to ensure the supply of funds before making investment decisions, and do not invest in construction projects with funding gaps. However, if investors in construction projects seize the opportunity to take over "semi-finished" projects, they can often get phased results at a lower price, and then invest in construction and get high return on investment.
4. Ensure the ability to hold the property for a long time. Because the real estate market has a great influence on the price and liquidity of real estate, investors in construction projects must be able to hold real estate for a long time in order to sell real estate during the boom period; If you can't hold the property long enough, you may be forced to sell it when the market is depressed, which will suffer incalculable losses, which may be fatal. People who invest in construction projects must have patience and endurance, and never act rashly.
5. Manipulate real estate cash flow because real estate cash flow is an important factor affecting the realization of investment in construction projects, and real estate cash flow can be manipulated. In order to attract buyers and sell at a good price, construction project investors can make real estate projects have an attractive cash flow through manipulation. This is also a common means of investment in construction projects.
6. Do a good job in the operation and management of construction projects. If the operation and management of construction projects are done well, we can choose a good investment area, match the investment proportion, choose a good real estate investment project, arrange the development and construction operation funds reasonably, ensure a high cash flow, and hold real estate for a long time, thus reducing the real estate liquidation crisis and obtaining a high investment income of construction projects. It can be said that doing a good job in construction project investment management is the most fundamental countermeasure to reduce the liquidity crisis of construction project investment.
Case 2: Analysis of Real Estate Investment Liquidation Crisis
First, the real estate investment crisis factors
Because it takes a reasonable long time for real estate to be sold in the market, the liquidity of real estate investment is very poor. Generally speaking, the liquidity order of common input types is: cash, checks and deposits, stocks, bonds and real estate. The change of real estate investment ranks last among the common investment types, and the crisis of realizing real estate investment is even greater. According to the law of "crisis and profit coexist", the income of real estate investment is also great.
There are many factors that determine the liquidity of real estate investment. The following are the top priorities:
(A) the size of the real estate value
The greater the value of real estate, the more funds are needed, the greater the risk, the harder it is to find buyers in the real estate market, and the worse the liquidity. For example, the mobility of senior apartments is lower than that of ordinary houses; The mobility of large shopping malls is lower than that of street shops; The mobility of the whole building is lower than that of houses sold by households.
(B) the degree of real estate construction
The lower the building of real estate, the worse its mobility. For example, the liquidity of raw land investment is worse than cultivated land investment, simple land investment is worse than general real estate investment, and semi-finished real estate investment is worse than completed real estate investment. Real estate investors should pay attention: rushing to convert land investment into cash often leads to huge losses. Therefore, when simply investing in land, we must fully consider whether we have the strength to ensure that we hold the land at the right time.
(3) Is the location of real estate good or bad?
The better the location of real estate, the greater the appreciation potential, the better the liquidity, and the smaller the liquidation crisis of real estate investment. For example, urban real estate is better than suburban real estate, downtown real estate is better than ordinary urban real estate, and real estate in business circle is better than real estate outside business circle.
Real estate market.
It is much easier to sell real estate in the boom of the real estate market than in the slump of the real estate market. That is, the better the real estate market, the better the liquidity of real estate investment, and the smaller the liquidity crisis of real estate investment. For example, in the first half of 1993, China's real estate market was in a prosperous period, with frequent real estate transactions, and real estate was easily sold in the market; At the beginning of 1994, the real estate market was in a low tide, and many real estate developers had a large backlog of real estate, which occupied a lot of money and was trapped. Even if the price is reduced, it is difficult to sell.
(5) Cash flow of real estate
The greater the cash flow of real estate, the better the liquidity of real estate, and the smaller the liquidity crisis of real estate investment. Because the property with large cash flow shows good income-generating ability, it is easy to attract buyers to buy. For example, hotels with good operating conditions and considerable operating income are easier to sell in the market and can sell at a good price. Hotels that operate at a loss are more difficult to sell in the market, and even if they are sold, the prices are often very low.
Second, measures to reduce the real estate investment crisis
(A) grasp the proportion of matching investment
The liquidity of different types of investments is different. The liquidity of real estate investment is poor, and the liquidity of national debt is good. In order to ensure that when funds are urgently needed, they can be quickly converted into cash without loss of value, the more appropriate countermeasure is to implement matching investment. Put part of the funds into real estate, and part of the funds into investment varieties where national debt is easy to realize. What real estate investors need to pay attention to is: in order to ensure the supply of funds in case of emergency, don't deposit funds in your hands or banks, because this will lose the opportunity to earn high profits or interest by using funds.
(2) Choose real estate investment that is easy to split and sell.
Because the property with large value has poor liquidity, the property that is easy to be divided and sold has relatively good liquidity. Investing in real estate that is easy to split and sell can not only ensure high profits when owning real estate, but also ensure that real estate is easy to sell.
(3) Don't invest in real estate with insufficient funds.
Because "semi-finished" projects are difficult to sell and the selling price cannot be raised, real estate investors should avoid this kind of real estate investment. Therefore, real estate investors should make good arrangements to ensure the supply of funds before making investment decisions, and do not invest in real estate under the condition of insufficient funds. However, if real estate investors seize the opportunity to take over "semi-finished" projects, they can often get phased results at extremely low prices, and then put them into construction to get high return on investment.
(D) Choose a good location for real estate investment
The location of investment is an issue that investors should always consider. Only those real estate investment projects with good lots can be sold in time and have good liquidity. Choosing a good investment location is one of the important countermeasures to reduce the crisis of investment realization. One problem that real estate investors should pay attention to is not to choose real estate projects with poor lots in order to save initial investment. We should fully consider the input income and crisis, and not be too short-sighted.
(5) Guaranteed holding capacity
Sufficient time of real estate Because the real estate market has a great influence on the price and liquidity of real estate, real estate investors must be able to hold real estate for a long time in order to sell real estate during the market boom. If you can't hold the property long enough, you may be forced to sell it when the market is depressed, which will suffer incalculable losses, which may be fatal. Real estate investors must have patience and endurance, and never act rashly.
(six) manipulation of real estate cash flow
Because real estate cash flow is the key factor affecting the realization of real estate investment, and real estate cash flow can be manipulated, so in order to attract buyers and sell at a good price, real estate investors can completely manipulate it, so that real estate projects have attractive cash flow. This is also a common means of real estate investment.
(seven) do a good job in real estate investment management.
If the real estate investment management is done well, we can choose a good investment location, match the investment proportion, choose a good real estate investment project, reasonably arrange the development, construction and operation funds, ensure a high cash flow, and hold real estate for a long time, thus reducing the liquidation crisis of real estate investment and obtaining a high real estate investment income. It can be said that doing a good job in the management of real estate investment is the most fundamental countermeasure to reduce the crisis of real estate investment realization.