The impact of the financial crisis?

2007-2008 Global Financial Crisis

Also known as financial tsunami, credit crisis and Wall Street tsunami, it was a financial crisis that began to appear on August 9, 2007. Since the subprime mortgage crisis broke out, investors began to lose confidence in the value of mortgage-backed securities, which triggered a liquidity crisis. Even if many central banks injected huge amounts of money into the financial market many times, they could not stop the outbreak of this financial crisis. Until 2008, the financial crisis began to get out of control, leading to the closure or takeover of many large financial institutions by the government.

The world is facing the worst financial crisis in 60 years.

The current financial crisis is caused by the bubble of American real estate market. In some ways, this financial crisis is similar to other crises that broke out every four years after the end of World War II 10.

However, there are essential differences between financial crises. The current crisis marks the end of the era of credit expansion with the US dollar as the global reserve currency. Other cyclical crises are part of a larger boom-bust process. The current financial crisis is the peak of the super boom cycle that lasted for more than 60 years.

The boom-bust cycle usually revolves around the credit situation and always contains a prejudice or misunderstanding. This is usually a failure to realize that there is a reflexive and circular relationship between the willingness to lend and the value of collateral. If credit is easy to obtain, it will bring demand, which will push up the value of real estate; In turn, this situation increases the amount of available credit. Bubbles occur when people buy real estate and expect to benefit from mortgage refinancing. In recent years, the prosperity of American housing market is a proof. The super boom that lasted for 60 years is a more complicated example.

Whenever the credit expansion is in trouble, the financial authorities take intervention measures to inject liquidity into the market and find other ways to stimulate economic growth. This forms an asymmetric incentive system, the so-called moral hazard, which promotes the increasingly strong expansion of credit. This system was so successful that people began to believe in what Ronald Reagan, the former president of the United States, called "the magic of the market"-what I call "market fundamentalism". Fundamentalists believe that the market will tend to be balanced and let market participants pursue their own interests, which is most beneficial to the interests of the same group of people. This is obviously a misunderstanding, because it is not the market itself that keeps the financial market from collapsing, but the intervention of the authorities. However, market fundamentalism began to become the dominant way of thinking in the 1980s, when the financial market was just beginning to globalize and the current account deficit began to appear in the United States.

Globalization has enabled the United States to absorb savings from other parts of the world and consume more than its own output. In 2006, the US current account deficit reached 6.2% of its gross domestic product (GDP). By introducing increasingly complex products and more generous terms, financial markets encourage consumers to borrow. Whenever the global financial system is in danger, the financial authorities will intervene and play a role in fueling the situation. Since 1980, the supervision has been relaxed, even to the point of name only.

The impact on China is roughly as follows:

First of all, the subprime mortgage crisis mainly affected China's exports.

The subprime mortgage crisis has slowed down the growth of American economy and global economy, and its impact on China's economy, especially its exports, cannot be ignored. In 2007, China's monthly export growth rate dropped from 5 1.6% in February 2007 to 2 1.7% in February 2007 due to the weak import demand in the United States and Europe. The US subprime mortgage crisis led to a decline in China's export growth. On the one hand, it will slow down the economic growth of China to a certain extent. At the same time, due to the slow economic growth in China, the social demand for labor force is less than the supply of labor force, which will increase the employment pressure of the whole society.

Secondly, China will face the dual pressures of slowing economic growth and severe employment situation.

Up to now, China's CPI has been below 4% for two consecutive months, 1.0% and1.2% respectively, while the PPI is 1.3% and1.2%. The economic situation is very severe, and the GDP in the third quarter is very severe. The closure of a large number of small and medium-sized processing enterprises has also aggravated the grim situation of unemployment. At present, the top economic priority of our country is to maintain growth and promote employment.

Finally, the subprime mortgage crisis will increase China's exchange rate risk and capital market risk.

In response to the negative impact of the subprime mortgage crisis, the United States adopted a loose monetary policy and a weak dollar exchange rate policy. The sharp depreciation of the US dollar has brought huge exchange rate risks to China. At present, China's foreign exchange reserves have been reduced from 1.9 trillion dollars to 1.89 trillion dollars, and the stock loss of 10%-20% is very huge. With the economic slowdown in developed countries, China's economy continues to grow, the dollar continues to depreciate, the expectation of RMB appreciation continues, and international capital flows to China to find a safe haven, which will aggravate the risk of China's capital market.

How do China enterprises cope with the financial crisis?

The "financial tsunami" swept the world. How can China enterprises tap huge business opportunities from the crisis? "Ten Countermeasures" to Help China Enterprises Stand Out!

Tears on Wall Street caused the "financial tsunami" to sweep the world and triggered a global economic recession. At present, the once-in-a-century Wall Street "financial tsunami" is impacting the global financial system, and the five major investment banks on Wall Street in the United States, which once dominated the global capital market, have been completely wiped out. There is no doubt that the comprehensive financial strength of the United States has suffered heavy losses. So how did the Wall Street crisis evolve? Where will the new financial system go? How will China government and small and medium-sized enterprises calmly respond? Professor Xu Hongcai, director of capital university of economics and business Securities and Futures Research Center, told us that "crisis" means "danger" plus "opportunity". During this period, some enterprises will seize the opportunity and stand out. This course will show you the whole process of the global financial crisis and the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on China. On this basis, we will provide "Ten Countermeasures" for entrepreneurs in China, lead enterprises to assess the situation, seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, and follow the trend from the aspects of strategic adjustment, policy interpretation, development mode transformation, financing strategy and avoiding financial risks.

Lecturer: Xu Hongcai

Director of capital university of economics and business Securities and Futures Research Center and Professor of Finance; Distinguished professor, Tsinghua University International Engineering Project Research Institute; CIIA expert member of China Securities Association; Executive Dean of Beijing Institute of International Finance. 1996 received a doctorate in economics from China Academy of Social Sciences. I have worked in the central bank, securities companies, venture capital companies and China Petrochemical Group, and studied financial business in the United States, Europe and Hongkong many times. Published academic monographs "Investment Fund and Financial Development" and "China Capital Market Research"; Editor-in-chief of Investment Banking, Investment Fund Operation Encyclopedia and China Capital Operation Classic Case, among which Investment Banking and Investment Fund Operation Encyclopedia are the first textbooks with far-reaching influence in China. He visited more than 0/00 cities and more than 200 listed companies in China/KLOC, and served as economic adviser to many local governments and financial adviser to group companies. Tens of thousands of lectures were well received by students!

A summary of China enterprises' response to the financial crisis;

I. Evolution of the global financial crisis

Second, the transmission mechanism of subprime mortgage crisis.

Third, the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on China.

Four. Interpreting policy-how does our government participate in the new international financial system?

Five, China enterprises to deal with the global financial crisis, the top ten countermeasures.

1, shrink the front and prepare for winter.

2. Thoroughly understand the policy orientation and make full use of policy support and opportunities.

3. Cooperate with financial institutions to open up new financing channels.

4. Examine the business strategy and find out the comparative advantage.

5, enterprise strategic adjustment and risk management

6. How to seize M&A opportunities.