Combining the futures market with commodity basis and monthly spread, we can better understand the commodity market dynamics and look for arbitrage opportunities. In addition, the impact of the macro situation on product prices can not be ignored. It is worth noting that various policies and regulations on the use of plastic products issued by the government can quickly guide the market trend.
_ China's polypropylene production capacity is increasing year by year, and the growth rate is relatively fast. With the launch of 20021Tenth Five-Year Plan, the development trend of refining-chemical integration in China chemical industry is becoming more and more obvious. In recent years, a large number of new equipment will be put into production.
In this context, China's polypropylene production is increasing, the self-sufficiency rate is rising, the dependence on imports is weakening, the sources of raw materials are diversified, the competition between enterprises and regions is intensified, and the survival of the fittest is eliminated, which promotes industrial upgrading and progress.
Introduction of 0 1 polypropylene industrial chain
Polypropylene (PP) is a polymer formed by addition polymerization of propylene, a highly crystalline thermoplastic synthetic resin, and a white, translucent, non-toxic and tasteless waxy solid.
Polypropylene, as a lightweight general plastic with excellent properties, has good chemical resistance, insulation and mechanical strength, and is widely used. It can be seen everywhere in furniture, packaging, equipment, spare parts, building materials and other industries.
There are energy products such as petroleum, coal and gas and chemical products such as methanol, propane and propylene in the upstream of polypropylene, of which propylene is the direct upstream; The downstream products are mainly woven products, injection molding products, synthetic fibers, pipes or plates and film products.
The production technology of polypropylene can be divided into oil method, coal method and propane dehydrogenation method.
1) traditional oil recovery methods: crude oil is distilled to obtain naphtha, naphtha is cracked by steam or heavy oil catalytic cracking to produce olefins, and oil is polymerized to produce polypropylene. This method has mature technology and considerable production capacity, but it has high energy consumption and limited propylene yield, and is also greatly affected by the radiation of crude oil price fluctuation.
2) Coal chemical manufacturing method: coal to methanol, methanol to propylene, and propylene polymerization to polypropylene. China is rich in coal resources, and the raw materials used in this method are relatively convenient and easy to obtain, but the pollution caused by the device is large, and it faces environmental pressure and the investment cost is also high.
3) Propane dehydrogenation method: propane replaces distillate oil as raw material, propane is dehydrogenated under the action of catalyst to produce propylene, and propylene is polymerized to produce polypropylene. The advantages of this process are simple equipment, simple raw materials and products, and high product yield. The disadvantages are high dependence on propane imports, short industrial chain, and certain risks in its supply and price.
At present, China's polypropylene production process is still dominated by the traditional oil method, accounting for half of the country. The production capacity of polypropylene prepared by coal chemical method and propane dehydrogenation method is also increasing year by year. In the future, it is expected that propane dehydrogenation capacity will have a good room for improvement, and it will also become an important direction for polypropylene production.
Polypropylene can be divided into homopolymer polypropylene (PP-H) and * * * polypropylene, among which * * * polypropylene can be further divided into block * * * polypropylene (PP-B) and random * * * polypropylene (PP-R).
Homopolypropylene is polymerized from propylene monomer with high crystallinity, and its molecular chains are arranged regularly, but its material is brittle and its impact resistance is insufficient. Therefore, people need to try to use * * * poly modification to improve its performance. Block polypropylene is polymerized from propylene and part of ethylene (7%- 15%). The ethylene monomer only exists in the block, and the molecular chain structure is still regular, which improves the impact resistance of the material.
While propylene and a small amount of ethylene (1%-4%) catalyze addition polymerization to obtain random polypropylene. Ethylene monomers are randomly arranged in the molecular chain and no longer show regularity. The crystallinity of the product is reduced, the impact resistance, stability and transparency are enhanced, and the comprehensive performance is improved.
02 polypropylene price trend in recent ten years
2013-August 2022, the price of polypropylene fluctuated widely in the price range of 6200- 12800 yuan/ton. On the whole, its price has gone through a process of small rise and fall, then rise and then fall, rapid rise and shock, and slow decline.
The mainstream process of domestic polypropylene production is the traditional oil method, so its price is often affected by the fluctuation of crude oil, and the overall trend generally follows the rhythm of crude oil.
However, in the past decade, the price of crude oil rose to a historical high in the shock, while the price of polypropylene was at a historical low.
It can be seen that the raw material support from the cost side is not the only weather vane of price change, and the pulling force is limited. With the development of the times, the complexity of the market is deepening day by day. Under the joint action of many factors, the trend of the correlation between the price trend of polypropylene and crude oil is gradually emerging.
Polypropylene deviated from crude oil twice in the price trend of 20 13-20 15.
In order to better review the past market, we can elaborate the time distortion of the past decade in four stages.
The first stage is 20 13 to 20 15. During this period, the overall price of polypropylene fluctuated and fell, and the curve was still close to that of crude oil. 20 13 in the first half of the year, European and American countries implemented loose monetary policies, the economy recovered, and the market confidence was sufficient, which pushed the international oil price to run at a high level and continued to fluctuate within a narrow range.
Under the support of cost, the price of polypropylene is also at a high level. However, before the Spring Festival, the demand was weak, the trading atmosphere was bleak, and the post-holiday inventory was high. In addition, new petrochemical plants in Heyuan and Luoyang of Ningbo were put into operation, and the supply pressure increased. PP and the downstream market hold a wait-and-see attitude, and the demand has not improved significantly. Therefore, at the beginning of the year, the price of polypropylene did not fluctuate after a slight increase in crude oil, and there was some resistance to its upward or downward movement, mainly due to weak consolidation.
From July to September, the situation in the Middle East was turbulent, political crises occurred in many countries, and oil demand was strong in summer. Crude oil inventories in the United States have fallen sharply, and supply and demand are tight, leading to a new round of high international oil prices. The cost support was further strengthened, pushing the price of polypropylene higher.
Around the Eleventh Golden Week, the peak of oil consumption passed after the season change, and the oil price has begun to fall. At this time, the domestic petrochemical industry stopped selling and settling accounts, some facilities in East China stopped production or reduced production, and Typhoon Fete affected Ningbo, Yuyao and Cixi in Zhejiang. Although the demand is average, the supply of plastics market is greatly reduced and the supply is tight, which also makes the price of polyolefin soar all the way.
In the first half of 20 14, the international crude oil maintained a high level of operation, and the cost support remained strong. On February 28th, PP futures was officially listed on Dalian Commodity Exchange. In addition, the petrochemical policy rose after the holiday, boosting market confidence, and the price of polypropylene climbed again.
In the second half of the year, the energy revolution was in full swing. The United States stepped up shale oil exploration and crude oil production increased substantially. In addition, the member countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increased production, the pressure on the supply side rose sharply, and the demand was insufficient, which led to a sharp drop in oil prices. However, from August to September, due to centralized maintenance of production facilities in Ning Mei, Datang International and Ningbo Formosa Plastics, the operating rate of polypropylene decreased, the spot supply was slightly tight, and the downstream demand showed signs of recovery, so the price of polypropylene still showed an upward trend. In the fourth quarter, the international oil price continued to plummet, and the cost support was greatly weakened, which led to a sharp drop in the polypropylene market price and continued to be weak until the end of the year.
20 15 for the whole year, the price trend chart of polypropylene is basically the same as that of crude oil. After the oil price bottomed out twice during the year, it still fluctuated downwards.
Polypropylene is facing the impact of the downward shift of the center of gravity of upstream crude oil, and its cost support is insufficient. The superimposed new production capacity has been put into production one after another, and the downstream just needs to purchase, and the willingness to trade is general, and the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent. The price also fluctuated, falling to about 6400 yuan/ton, which is also the bottom of the market in the past decade.
04 polypropylene price trend 20 16-20 18
In the second stage, from 2065438+06 to 2065438+08, the overall price of polypropylene fluctuated and rose until it fell rapidly in the last quarter, during which the curve was still similar to that of crude oil.
20 16 crude oil bottomed out, which provided the impetus for the fluctuation of polypropylene price. In March, after the holiday, the inventory of two oils was at a low level of 700,000-750,000 tons, and the production facilities of Daqing Refining and Chemical Company, Fujian Refining and Chemical Company and Dushanzi Petrochemical Company were intensively overhauled. The favorable supply factors boosted the high market report, the downstream operating rate increased, the demand recovered, and the price of polypropylene rose rapidly. However, in the following two months, because the demand follow-up was not as strong as the price increase, the upward trend was restrained and fell into a volatile market.
From June to July, the funds were hyped again, and the futures price was raised. At the same time, the refining units in Ning Mei, Datang, Yanshan and Daqing started centralized maintenance, the supply decreased and the market was bullish, which led to the second surge of polypropylene. The rapid rise of raw material prices has squeezed the profit margin of terminal manufacturers, which in turn has affected the downstream purchasing willingness. In August, polypropylene was shaken and sorted.
At the beginning of September, the G20 Summit was held in Hangzhou, and freight vehicles were restricted in some parts of East China, resulting in a backlog of products. After the meeting, the transportation was lifted, and with the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver 10" plastic terminal sales season, the inventory was released and the demand was good. Polypropylene ushered in the third wave of gains during the year.
20 17, the polypropylene market first suppressed and then rose, showing a wide "v" shape. In the first half of the year, PP prices fluctuated downwards. Before and after the Spring Festival, the downstream demand recovered slowly, the stocks of two oils accumulated, and petrochemical enterprises lowered their ex-factory prices in turn, and the weak pattern lasted for several months. Until mid-May, the "One Belt, One Road" policy released good news, the demand side increased procurement efforts, and the price of polypropylene stopped falling and rebounded.
In the second half of the year, crude oil supply and demand are expected to continue to be removed, and OPEC members and non-members reached a production reduction agreement, which stimulated a sharp rise in oil prices. The domestic commodity market as a whole picked up, the inventory was exhausted, and polypropylene also changed its decline and the price rose. In winter, the downstream demand of plastic market turned cold, and the inventory rose again. However, due to the strong upstream of crude oil and methanol, the polypropylene shock declined slightly.
20 18, the price of polypropylene went out of an inverted "n" shape. In the first quarter, the newly appointed national security adviser of the Trump administration of the United States took a tough attitude towards Iran and worried about imposing oil sanctions on Iraq again. Saudi Arabia hopes that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will cooperate with other oil-producing countries to reduce production, correct the overcapacity of crude oil and push the oil price to fluctuate upward. However, after the Spring Festival, the domestic downstream polypropylene plant started to recover slowly, and the demand side was not ideal. Sinopec lowered the ex-factory price, and the merchants made concessions to deliver the goods. The market is watching cautiously. With the gradual increase of two kinds of oil stocks, the futures market plummeted and the price of PP market weakened.
From the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter, crude oil fluctuated upward, cost support was enhanced, some devices were intensively overhauled, inventory was digested, supply pressure was reduced, downstream new orders were optimistic, operating rate rose, and demand began to improve. In addition, the futures market also rose with the trend, boosting polypropylene to stop falling and pull up.
Since September, Sino-US trade disputes have escalated, which has affected the global economic situation. The sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran's oil exports were not as good as expected, and crude oil plummeted after peaking, which led to a downward pressure on the polypropylene market and a low willingness to trade.
05 polypropylene price trend 20 19-2020
The third stage is from 20 19 to 2020. At this stage, affected by the epidemic situation, extreme market appeared, and the correlation between polypropylene and crude oil decreased.
In 20 19, the overall trend of polypropylene was stable, mainly with small shocks. In 65438+February, due to the delayed start of a set of equipment in Zhejiang Petrochemical Company, the inventory declined rapidly, and the inventory was replenished before the holiday, which led to the short-term rise and fall of PP at the end of the year.
In the first quarter of 2020, affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, the country imposed martial law, restricted flow, stopped production in various places, the economy was frustrated, supply and demand were weak, and the market price of polypropylene continued to fluctuate and fall.
In April, the international demand for crude oil shrank, the measures of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to reduce production were postponed, and the market's concerns about the oversupply of energy and the continued spread of the epidemic cast a shadow over the global economy. At the same time, short sellers sold a large number of WTI crude oil positions in May, causing the crude oil disk price to plummet to a negative value.
At that time, polypropylene did not continue to fall. Wuhan has been unblocked, but domestic epidemic prevention measures have not stopped. Due to the need of various epidemic prevention materials, the social demand for PP fiber materials and melt-blown materials has risen rapidly. A large number of petrochemical enterprises turned to produce varieties in short supply, which led to a sharp decline in the production capacity of wire drawing materials.
Short-term scheduling mismatch caused a shortage of supply, which coincided with the hype in the raw material market of mask production, which made the inflection point of polypropylene market appear and the price skyrocketed, and it took half a month to return to the fundamental logic.
In summer, after the epidemic at the beginning of the year, the economy gradually recovered and oil prices began to repair. Some new polypropylene plants have been put into production. However, due to the bad weather of typhoon, the arrival of PP decreased, and the pressure on the supply side was acceptable. At the same time, the two oil depots are hovering at a low level of 700,000 tons, the correlation between the two oil depots is enhanced, the market expectation is improved, and the bullish factors prevail, forming a wave of rising prices in a short time.
In the third and fourth quarters, the price of polypropylene fluctuated slightly again, and the overall situation was relatively stable.
06 price trend of polypropylene 202 1-2022
The last stage is 202 1 to 2022. During this period, the global epidemic is still raging, geopolitical risks are increasing, market complexity is deepening, and the trends of polypropylene and crude oil are not the same.
202 1, the polypropylene market changes greatly. At the beginning of the year, under the extremely cold weather in the United States, overseas devices stopped production and the supply was tight. At this time, the two major oil depots in China are at a low level after the holiday, and the wide opening of the export window gives strong support to the market price, which helps polypropylene to rise sharply. At the end of March, the sharp increase in upstream costs compressed the profits of downstream terminals, which led to the weakening of downstream enterprises' demand. In addition, new domestic production capacity was put into production, the supply and demand pattern improved, and polypropylene turned to slow fluctuations.
In September, the traditional peak demand season came and the market expected to improve. Datang Duolun, Yanchang Yan 'an and other devices were shut down for maintenance, the supply declined, the operating rate of downstream BOPP rebounded slightly, the demand was slightly boosted, and the cost end of crude oil, methanol and propane strengthened, supporting the price increase of polypropylene. In mid-June, 10, downstream manufacturers in some areas reduced their burdens due to power cuts, and petrochemicals accumulated at the same time, but the cost side remained strong, and the game between supply and demand and cost caused PP to fluctuate.
In 2022, the domestic polypropylene market price rose and then adjusted back, and then fell into a long-term weak shock. In February, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out. Russia is a big oil producer. Regional instability has led to a surge in international crude oil and a significant increase in cost support, leading to an increase in the prices of various domestic chemicals, including polypropylene.
Since then, oil prices have remained high, but this year, the domestic epidemic has revived, which has a far-reaching impact on the supply and demand side. The commissioning of new devices has brought pressure to the supply side, and the demand side is mainly based on just-needed procurement. The trading atmosphere in the market is general, and polypropylene is weak and oscillates downward.
07 market prospect
As can be seen from the above figure, the habitual accumulation of polyolefins around the Spring Festival in February every year is often the period with the largest inventory in a year. In general, the price is negatively related to the inventory. When the inventory is high, the market price will decrease, and when the inventory is low, the market price will go up. As shown in the figure, at the beginning of 2020, the epidemic caused the stocks of two oils to exceed 6,543,800+6,000 tons, the highest point in the past three years, and the price of PP also fell below 7,000, reaching the lowest point in three years.
However, there will be exceptions, and high inventory does not necessarily lead to lower prices. For example, the cold weather in the United States at the beginning of 20021greatly increased China's PP export demand and supported the market price increase; In March this year, the oil price soared due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which led to the rise of most chemicals such as PP. At present, the inventory of two oil depots is about 620,000 tons, which is at a low level, but the spot market price of polypropylene has not risen sharply.
Basis is the spot minus the value of futures. Usually, a stronger basis means a stronger spot, so the pattern of basis and price change is similar. However, the opposite trend may also occur. For example, from September of 20021year to June of 10, the market price of PP went up, but the basis weakened. This is because a large amount of money has been invested in the far-month contract to bring up the futures market and narrow the basis.
Recently, the international crude oil fluctuated widely, the PP futures market fluctuated strongly, the market demand followed the general trend, and the basis weakened slightly. Subsequent domestic polypropylene products will also face competition from imported low-priced goods, new production capacity will be put into production, and devices such as parking and maintenance will resume work one after another, and the supply pressure will be further enhanced.
Now the "Golden September and Silver 10" time has arrived. Although the downstream operating rate has rebounded slightly, it is still lower than in previous years, and the demand side has not improved significantly. Whether the peak season can really flourish remains to be verified.