Extended content:
Judging from the market trend of 202 1, the methanol market was mixed last year. Due to the dual control of energy consumption and the influence of upper-level policies such as "peak carbon dioxide emission" and "carbon neutrality", methanol is highly correlated with the trend of raw coal during the year. From 1 to 10, coal and methanol rose sharply. After the middle period of 10, affected by coal policy intervention, both of them fell at a high level simultaneously. Looking back on the market of 20021year, except for the influence of coal, the profit redistribution trend of methanol industry chain was obvious during the year, and the product profit gradually shifted to the raw material end. In the methanol chain, the profits of coal and natural gas are the highest, followed by those of methanol enterprises, and the traditional downstream profits of methanol such as formaldehyde and dimethyl ether are the worst. The profits of olefins are at a loss stage for most of the year, but the profits of other fine chemicals such as acrylonitrile, POM and MMA are maintained.
In 2022, we think that the trend or shock of methanol is weak. If the global energy shortage gradually eases and foreign natural gas methanol plants start to stabilize, more imported goods or port prices will be suppressed. The impact of domestic raw coal is still expected to be empty: there is sufficient coal supply at the end of 20021,and according to the current trend, the center of gravity of coal price will be lowered in the off-season of coal demand in 2022, so the methanol cost support line is expected to be further lowered. From the perspective of methanol supply, the new methanol production capacity will be about 4 million tons in 2022, but the planned output will be relatively concentrated in the first and second quarters, which will lead to greater supply pressure in the first half of the year. Under the combined effect of plummeting cost and increasing supply, the price pressure of methanol in the first half of the year was relatively high. It is suggested to pay attention to whether the demand elasticity can release the rebound opportunity of methanol price after the methanol price reduction makes the downstream profit. Risk factors: the coal price fell less than expected, the demand improved obviously, and the methanol plant was put into operation less than expected.
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