From the perspective of interest rate marketization, China's national debt market cannot produce the market benchmark interest rate, and the open market operation cannot play its due role under the market interest rate system. The function of using national debt and its derivatives to avoid interest rate risk is even missing, and the functions of regulation, price discovery and interest rate risk avoidance in the national debt market need to be further improved.
Perfecting the price discovery function of the national debt market
First, improve the price discovery function of the national debt market, thoroughly realize the interest rate marketization of the national debt issuance market and the circulation market as soon as possible, establish a complete and reliable national debt yield curve, and provide a continuous market benchmark interest rate for the financial market and the central bank.
In the issue market, the competitive mechanism should be introduced by bidding. Through the regular, balanced and rolling issuance of short-term, medium-term and long-term treasury bonds, the position of treasury bond interest rate as the market benchmark interest rate is established and continuously strengthened, so that the benchmark treasury bond interest rate is as close to and reflects the market interest rate as possible, thus playing a guiding role in the market interest rate. Gradually extend the initial term of fixed-rate treasury bonds to 7 years, 10 years, 20 years or even 30 years, and finally form a complete, reliable and more accurate yield curve of treasury bonds, which provides a reliable reference index for interest rate changes of other debt instruments and interest rate adjustment of the central bank, and undoubtedly plays a positive role in promoting the establishment of a market-oriented interest rate system.
Give full play to the role of bond underwriting institutions and "primary dealers" in the open market, and improve the liquidity of the spot market of bonds. Through the exchange of market participants, hedging arbitrage activities are carried out in various markets to create market conditions and make the interest rate level of the whole market tend to be balanced. Drawing lessons from international experience, the inter-bank bond market will gradually develop into an over-the-counter market, and the exchange bond market will develop into an onshore market, eventually forming a unified and open bond issuance market and a highly liquid bond circulation market.
Establish a unified and open national debt market. Unification means that on the basis of a unified national debt custody and clearing system, no matter which investors in the national debt market trade, they will eventually be delivered in the same system. According to international practice, the inter-bank bond market and the exchange bond market will be unified, and the listed and traded government bonds will be settled and settled in the China Government Securities Depository and Clearing Co., Ltd., and the exchange will no longer trust the government bonds. Openness means that all investors can freely enter and exit the inter-bank bond market and the exchange bond market to buy and sell government bonds. Because of the lowest cost limit, individual investors and small and medium-sized investors can participate in the transaction through agents, or they can buy government bond investment funds.
Adjust the term structure and holder structure of national debt.
The second is to adjust the term structure and holder structure of national debt, enhance the liquidity of the national debt market and improve the regulatory function of the national debt market. In the future, we should increase the issuance of short-term treasury bonds with maturities within 1 year, such as three months, six months and nine months, and gradually form a long-,medium-and short-term treasury bond structure with reasonable structure. Mr. Dai believes that China implements the annual scale examination and approval system for the issuance of national debt, which is also one of the reasons for the serious shortage of short-term national debt below 1 year. It is suggested that the upper limit of the balance of short-term national debt should be determined by the National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) according to the requirements of open market operation, and the Ministry of Finance should standardize the rolling issuance instead of reporting it year by year or one by one.
In the future, the structure of national debt holders should be changed from individuals to institutional investors, providing sufficient carriers for the central bank to operate in the open market. The inclination of the structure of national debt holders to institutional investors will inevitably lead to a considerable number of individual investors not buying national debt, and the active participation of individual investors is extremely important for the development of the national debt market. The key to solve this contradiction lies in vigorously developing the national debt investment fund. Through the national debt investment fund, small personal assets that cannot directly invest in national debt can indirectly invest in national debt. At the same time, individual investors can indirectly participate in the national debt market through banks, insurance and other forms to provide a stable source of funds for the development of the national debt market.
Enrich the variety of national debt
Third, enrich the variety of treasury bonds, resume treasury bond futures trading in a timely manner, and gradually introduce derivative products to enhance the function of the treasury bond market to avoid interest rate risks. In short, from the perspective of interest rate marketization, the imperfect functions of price discovery, market regulation and interest rate risk avoidance in the national debt market have hindered the process of interest rate marketization. We should develop and improve the function of the national debt market as soon as possible, and accelerate the process of interest rate marketization, which is also an urgent problem faced by China after its accession to the WTO.