First, it comes from the international rapeseed market.
In 20001year, the world rapeseed output decreased by 3%, and the inventory at the end of the year decreased by 52% compared with the previous year, which was the lowest point since 1998/ 1999. The sown area of major rapeseed producing countries (Canada and Australia) has decreased this year, and the price of rapeseed in the international market is still running at a high level, so the import of rapeseed in 2002 will not be too large. However, importing low-priced soybeans will impact the domestic oil market to a certain extent.
Second, the increase of oil import quota will impact the domestic market.
After China's entry into WTO, the promised oil quota has increased a lot. According to the relevant documents of the State Planning Commission, in 2002, the oil quota of the three major varieties was 5.8 million tons, including 879,000 tons of rapeseed oil, 2510.8 million tons of crude soybean oil and 2.4 million tons of palm oil, which was much higher than the actual import of oil in China in 2006 (5438+0 years) and exceeded the oil gap of 4 million tons in China. At present, the quota has been issued, which will inevitably lead to oversupply in the oil market.
Third, the increase of domestic total oil area and output will affect the price of rapeseed.
In 20001/2002, the domestic oil planting area was 225 million mu, and the oil output was likely to remain at 29 million tons. The national rape planting area is 65.438+0.27 billion mu, and the total rape output will reach 65.438+0.27 million tons.
Fourth, the influence of national oil reserve rotation.
The rotation of national reserve and local reserve oil will further depress the market oil price, which is also a factor that cannot be ignored.
Fifth, the effect of rapeseed meal price on rapeseed.
At present, the price of rapeseed meal in the market is 0.48-0.50 yuan/kg. With the listing of rapeseed, the price of rapeseed meal may fall further, which will affect the purchase price of rapeseed.