On Thursday, the last trading day (165438+1October 30th), the international spot gold continued to close down, and the diving market appeared again. The Asian market rose slightly after opening at 1283.67 USD/ounce in early trading, and its ability to rise was insufficient. After recording an intraday high of 1285.36 USD/oz, it turned around and oscillated downward. The European market is flat. The price fluctuation of gold in the US market has increased. With the negative data such as initial application and PCE, as well as the improvement of US dollar and US bond yields, the price of gold plunged sharply, recording an intraday low of 1.270.43 US dollars/ounce, and finally rebounded slightly to close at 1.274.97 US dollars/ounce, down 8.7 US dollars, or 0.68%. WTI American crude oil; On Thursday, it closed up 0. 10, hitting an intraday high of 57.98 USD/barrel and closing at 57.40 USD/barrel. In the evening meeting between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC oil-producing countries, the production reduction agreement was extended to the end of 20 18 as scheduled. At the same time, Libya and Nigeria also agreed to limit production, which brought effective support to the oil market, but it was still threatened by the increase of crude oil production in the United States.
Of course, the continuous decline of gold yesterday, in addition to continuing the trend of the previous day, was mainly suppressed by the US tax reform. When the US dollar index and gold fall at the same time, although the price of gold fluctuates greatly with reference to the US dollar index, it is not the only factor. The fluctuation of European and American exchange rates will obviously reflect the change of the US dollar index. Yesterday, the highest value of Euro against USD was 1.5438+0932. To sum up:
(1) data; The number of US initial jobless claims announced in a few days decreased by 2,000 to 238,000 compared with the previous value. The decline in the number of people indicates that the overall labor market in the United States is still strong, which may push up the salary level and benefit the consumer index. The revised monthly rate of personal expenditure in the United States in September is the highest since August 2009, which just proves this point.
② American stock market; The performance of economic growth exceeded expectations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average stood at 24,000 points for the first time in the US stock market, and S&P once again hit a new high. US bond yields have also increased. As we all know, the growth and weakness of American economy are contrary to the decline and rise of gold price, so this has brought some pressure to gold.
③ Policy; Thursday's tax reform was favorable again, easing the decline of the dollar. Mester, two Federal Reserve officials, agreed that there were sufficient reasons to support the1February rate hike.
(4) Crude oil is indirectly negative. During the US session, NYMEX's most active WTI crude oil futures contract was delivered in just a few minutes, which pushed up the decline of crude oil prices, reduced the inflation of the US economy and supported the US dollar in data.
At present, the price of gold has broken the 1280 mark, and the 1270 USD/oz mark may be further tested. However, in Yao Zhang's view, it is still optimistic about the rebound, the trend and the decline to the lower end of the outer periphery of the interval mentioned above, that is, the lower rail of the bollinger Band and the supporting area of the 6 1.8% retracement position. Although it is a bit radical at present, as long as it touches this field, it should be done more.
Reasoning, in addition to technical support, there are fundamentals such as news;
① Although both the initial application data and the monthly personal support rate are negative, the unemployment rate has not decreased, and employment is still facing challenges.
The trend of hitting a record high will generally be suppressed by resistance, so I am not optimistic about the trend of the US stock market continuing to rise after hitting a record high, which will continue to put pressure on gold.
③ In terms of policy, although some Fed officials support raising interest rates, some officials are not optimistic, and so far, I also think that the market has digested the impact of raising interest rates at the end of the year on gold prices. In addition, in the long run, Powell's eccentric faction, that is, the Federal Reserve, which takes over as chairman, is also a potential gold factor. Raising interest rates may unlock the power of gold.
The tax reform has yet to be finalized, and it is difficult to suppress the price of gold in the short term.
⑤ Crude oil starts to rise at the same time of continuous production reduction, which will stimulate the inflation problem of the US economy, while the negative dollar will drive the price of gold to rise, so there seems to be sufficient reason for the intraday rebound.
Technically; The current support level of gold is around $65,438+$0.270 per ounce. If it falls below, the gold price will further test the low of 1.260 in June. But when it comes to doing more things in time, Yao Zhang is not optimistic about getting there again. On the upside, the price of gold needs to return to 1280 before it can rebound. If the resistance level of 1289 USD/oz can be overcome, it can bring a breakthrough and is expected to counterattack the 1300 mark. The regional support of intraday 1270- 1272 is still relatively strong, and it is unlikely to be broken in the short term. The market test supported by 1270 can prepare for more than one order in the middle line. At present, the middle rail of daily bollinger band is located in the line of 1283, which is also the key pressure level that needs attention in the short term. At the same time, in the attached figure, the MAD indicator shows signs of dead fork, the red energy column shrinks, and the sto indicator and kdj indicator are dead fork downward. If the daily line can't stand in the middle of the bollinger band 1283, the short-term market may face adjustment. After the hourly line continued to close, a big sun basically stabilized. At present, the oscillation is around 1275. Below, we should pay attention to the support of 1270, rebound resistance 1278 and 1283, so we can keep the idea of doing more callback in operation.