We can judge the market trend of spot asphalt through both news and technical aspects.

1. News - Domestic spot asphalt quotations are weighted and converted based on international crude oil quotations, that is, we need to know what news in the current market will have an impact on the price of spot crude oil.

1. The trends of the Organization of Crude Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC),

There are two main points of observation, namely changes in production quotas set by OPEC countries and their attitude and market share in complying with the agreement. changes. In the 1980s, due to the increase in crude oil production in non-OPEC countries such as Russia, the United Kingdom, and Norway, OPEC reduced its production, thus retaining a large amount of spare capacity, which was of great significance in buffering the global shortage of crude oil supply; such as the 2003 Iraq War , Iraq's crude oil production dropped significantly, but Saudi Arabia and Kuwait immediately increased production to make up for the decline in Iraq's exports, successfully preventing sharp fluctuations in oil prices.

2. Changes in the political and economic situation and production strategies or refining technologies of major producing countries

The so-called major producing countries refer to the former Soviet Union, the United States, and Saudi Arabia. Before 1990, the Soviet Union had the largest output. However, after the collapse of communist power, the output dropped sharply. Saudi Arabia was able to rapidly expand its production capacity due to the Gulf Incident. In 1991, it accounted for 35% of the total output of OPEC members, making it the world's largest producer. Oil country. However, OPEC countries still control most of the oil sources, and the extraction time is still about 100 years, so they are still a decisive force. If divided by region, it can be divided into six major regions, namely the North Sea, West Africa, the Mediterranean, the Middle East, the Far East and the United States.

3. The impact of war, blockade, embargo or economic sanctions

When the Iraq War broke out in April 2002, oil prices increased by 42.59 from the low in April to the high of the year. %; Due to geopolitical instability in 2006, the crude oil price increased by 26.33% from the lowest point of the year of $61.7 to the high of $77.95 in May. This is because countries such as Nigeria, Iran, Iraq and Venezuela provide nearly 40% of the world's crude oil. Supply, so the dynamics of Middle Eastern countries deserve investors' attention.

4. U.S. crude oil supply and demand data

Every Tuesday the American Crude Oil Institute (API) and the U.S. Department of Energy (EIA) on Wednesday will publish the weekly energy supply and demand change table, with special attention to the United States The increase or decrease in crude oil inventory balance has a significant impact on crude oil. The United States is currently the world's largest crude oil import consumer. In terms of demand, the importance of these two data can be imagined.

5. U.S. Dollar Index

Crude oil prices have always been closely linked to the U.S. dollar. Its delivery and pricing are settled in U.S. dollars, so the U.S. dollar index will also have an impact on crude oil prices. . Changes in oil prices and changes in the U.S. dollar index have a certain inverse correlation. For example, if the U.S. dollar continues to depreciate, the actual revenue from petroleum products priced in U.S. dollars will decline, resulting in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries needing to increase crude oil prices as a response to maintain its relative stability in value. Similarly, if the U.S. dollar appreciates, oil prices will fall.

6. Global economic conditions and industrial development demand situation

The improvement in economic conditions has led to the prevalence of industrial activities, and the demand for crude oil has also been boosted, driving oil prices up; on the contrary, when the economy is in a downturn , industrial activity weakened and demand for crude oil fell, causing oil prices to weaken.

7. Seasonal factors

Generally speaking, the price of unleaded gasoline tends to rise during the peak summer tourist season between May and September every year; while the price of thermal fuel oil tends to rise from October to October every year. There is an upward trend from September to April of the following year. The temperature in the eastern United States during the winter has a great impact on crude oil prices.

The current OPCE crude oil production is rising, the number of U.S. oil drilling platforms has stopped falling and rebounded, and China’s import demand has decreased, resulting in the current small and medium-term crude oil trend being bearish, but the long-term supply and demand balance in the later period will be biased towards more.

2. Technical aspect

Technically, we often judge its trend through candlestick charts, moving averages, Bollinger and other indicators.

For example: Candle Chart We can judge the market simply by judging the market situation by simply closing Yang, indicating that the bulls are stronger, and closing Yin, indicating that the shorts are stronger: