If you want to know more about Aodong, Jilin, you can read the post below.

In-depth analysis of the intrinsic value of Jilin Aodong, so that you can feel at ease and feel at ease

This post was last edited by Lao A on 2010-1-15 18:25

< p> Before writing the article, I will only write about the imagination space of Aodong holding GF, and will not discuss Aodong’s other businesses for the time being

The current price of Jilin Aodong is around 57 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 26 times At present, according to the estimates of various institutions, the future space is only 30% to 40%, which can be said to be very useless, because they only use a very rational market and a very superficial future price-earnings ratio to analyze, without imagination. Making money in the market can only occur under two extreme circumstances, one is extreme optimism and the other is extreme pessimism. These are the times when big money can be made.

Everyone knows that Aodong holds 25% of the shares of GF. Most people estimate the listing price of GF at 70 to 80. Not counting Aodong’s other assets, it accounts for 1.06 of GF per share. When calculating stocks, the price should be reasonable around 80 yuan, which means there is no room for speculation and it is just reasonable. However, it can be said that this is basically impossible because the future market will either be good or bad. When it is bad, GF will not be able to do it at all. It’s not worth the price of seventy or eighty yuan. What about the good times? Of course there are more, and as a GF holder, Ao Dong will not stand still at this reasonable price. At that time, what everyone thought about was how much it would be worth in 5 years. Imagine, Jilin Ao in 5 years If Dong holds 25% of the fully circulated shares of Guangfa, what will be its market value? This is a lot of room for imagination. If we say that the market value of GF is 150 billion, and the annual growth rate is 12%, in an optimistic market, it is not excessive to give such a growth rate (I have restrained my optimism very much, Most people think about a 20% growth rate), so what will be the market value of GF by then? It is around 270 billion. According to Guangfa, Aodong can also estimate that the market value is close to 70 billion (note that this is very liquid and close to cash, which is Aodong’s net assets). The price should be around 120 yuan. In a bull market, it is normal to speculate on the performance of the next five years. Including margin trading and stock index futures, it should be said that for an innovative brokerage like GF and a leading brokerage among its peers, this cannot be said to be an optimistic estimate at all. It is quite conservative (note that the above remarks and the following What I want to say is that the future market is estimated to be in a bull market, or at least an environment where the market is rising. If the market does not go well and falls, then all this will become nonsense. Zhuge Liang only picks up the good aspects and talks about the bad aspects. , I hope everyone can think about it for themselves).

Okay, having said the above, everyone wants to know, I definitely want to know, you said Aodong is worth 120, okay, a reasonable valuation should be 70 or 80, so why is it only 50 now? There are so many, but no one has bought them yet. This is so unreasonable. People are not fools, so why don’t they grab them? There are still pies falling from the sky. Okay, okay, everyone, please calm down. This is a serious issue, which includes psychology, games, time and space, etc.

First of all, why not just let Jilin Aodong go to 80? This question is actually very simple. Everyone knows that the reasonable value is 80, so who do you think will pull it? The main force of big funds will pull it in, and then the small funds will come out, and then what? If a big amount of money is used to speculate 120, who will he give it to? (You can imagine, if you were the banker, would you have such a low B?) At the current stage, maintain the price of more than 50 yuan, neither high nor low, so that it will behave like tasteless food and it will be a pity to abandon it. This is what masters do, think about it, isn't it? It doesn’t fall because if it falls too much, someone will definitely want to come in. If it doesn’t rise, it means that those who want to leave and are not determined will clear their positions and leave. Moreover, the chips received here are not too high for the future (price). .

Another reason why the main funds are consumed at this price is also easy to understand. At this stage, brokerage stocks as a whole have not started. Although according to the media, the China Securities Regulatory Commission decided to launch margin trading stock index futures in 2010, At present, everyone is still uncertain about the market prospects. Most people do not pay attention to the large market value of large sectors such as brokerage stocks, thus gaining rare time for GF 3 Bao to wash up.

It is conceivable that the concept of GF should have a timetable, and the main force must also know it well. First, it is already in progress, the passing of the shareholder resolution, and then it will be submitted to the China Securities Regulatory Commission for approval, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission will approve it. It will definitely rise again, and then GF will be listed. The market was good in 2010, and the stock index futures of margin trading were launched, which increased everyone's imagination. While funds from all walks of life entered the market to push up the securities stocks, at the same time, GF 3 Bao's The imagination space is fully opened, and the stock price soars. Will you go to 120 then? No, who knows? Maybe 150, 200, who knows. Anyway, we made a profit, let’s go.

The above is the latest article analyzing Ao Dong

If you think it is good, you can read the original source

/viewthread.php?tid=41&extra=page %3D1