1. Basic characteristics of the economic situation in 2008 (1) The continuous warming trend of the economy has been reversed and has begun to enter a downward channel. The cumulative effects of the macro-control policies in 2008 have begun to appear clearly. Coupled with the external economic environment As a result, the growth rate of exports and investment began to decline or stabilize. Due to demand constraints, the economic growth rate began to return to a high level. The monthly industrial added value growth rate (comparable prices) dropped to 14.7% in July from 16% in June, and further dropped to 12.8% in August. The stock market and real estate market are mutually promoting, and the situation that continues to heat up rapidly has also been fundamentally changed. These circumstances indicate that the economy's continued warming trend has been reversed and has begun to enter a downward channel. (2) The trend of continued price increases has also seen new changes. The overall consumer price level (CPI) has returned to the era of "5". In August, China's consumer price index (CPI) rose 4.9% year-on-year, with the increase falling 1.4 percentage points from the previous month. This is the first time since July 2007 that the year-on-year CPI growth has dropped to less than 5%. The ex-factory price index (PPI) of industrial products hit a 12-year high again. In August, the ex-factory price of industrial products increased by 10.1% year-on-year, and the purchase price of raw materials, fuel, and power increased by 15.3%. With the domestic autumn grain harvest in sight, effective supply has increased, and new price increase factors have gradually disappeared. With the tail-wagging factors further weakening, the CPI will fall further. Although the PPI has increased at a high rate, it will not significantly push up the CPI because it cannot be fully transmitted. It is expected that the CPI may drop to less than 3% in December, and is expected to be controlled at around 6% for the whole year. As the growth rate of China's economy and the world's economy slows down, demand declines, coupled with the continued strengthening of the US dollar, the demand for speculative crude oil futures decreases, crude oil prices continue to fall, and the prices of resource products will stabilize and fall. This is more important for stabilizing the trend of PPI. Favorably, in connection with this, the prices of domestic resource products will also gradually fall, and the PPI increase will turn downward. (3) The development of financial problems in the United States is more likely to cause a weakening of the world economy. In 2008, the financial problems caused by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis continued to develop, and their adverse effects on the stability of the international financial system, the U.S. real economy, and the world economy gradually became apparent. . Following the problems of Freddie Mac and Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, Merrill Lynch was acquired, and the five major investment banks in the United States either filed for bankruptcy or changed their businesses. These circumstances indicate that the financial problems caused by US subprime mortgages are still developing, and their impact on the US economy and the world economy is still developing. Financial derivatives once played a role in diversifying risks, expanding liquidity, and expanding demand for real estate and other aspects. However, problems with financial derivatives will also focus on detonating risks, tightening liquidity, and tightening demand for real estate and other aspects. The former once played an important role in promoting the prosperity of the US economy, while the latter will lead the US economy to depression. This problem is still developing. The U.S. government, the Federal Reserve, and international banking organizations have taken measures to control the development of this problem. However, a large increase in fiscal expenditure will cause the fiscal deficit to further expand, causing the dollar to weaken further, which may trigger The economic crisis lurked by the long-term twin deficits in the United States. 2. Outlook of the Economic Situation in 2009 The economic trend in 2009 will largely depend on the adjustment of policies. From the analysis of the three major needs, we should pay attention to the following issues: (1) The potential slowdown in consumption demand and consumption structure upgrading may be affected by the weakening of the stock market, and the growth rate of residents’ property income has slowed down; as business difficulties increase and labor wage costs increase, Employment growth is also expected to be affected to a certain extent, which will in turn affect residents' income growth. The signs of a cooling economy may affect residents' consumer confidence in many aspects and change residents' consumption expectations. Taking into account the current changes in demand for home purchases, the impact of rising oil prices and changes in car usage conditions on household demand for car purchases, attention should be paid to the slowdown in future consumer demand growth and the slowdown in the pace of upgrading the consumption structure. Once this problem occurs, its impact chain will be very long, and it will gradually be transmitted from terminal demand to upstream industries, which may lead to a relatively long-term adjustment of economic growth. (2) The possibility of potential slowdown in real estate investment and corporate investment. In 2008, the year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates of China's urban housing sales price index continued to decline, and housing prices in some megacities such as Shenzhen showed significant declines. The change sparked widespread bearish expectations, leading to lower home sales. Judging from the current changes in supply and demand in the real estate market, it is expected that this trend will develop further. The rapid rise in urban housing prices has brought about a series of serious problems that must be controlled, but we must also pay attention to the possibility of a sharp fall after a sharp rise. If it is only regulated by the market, it is expected that the housing market will continue to be sluggish in the future. Coupled with the loan tightening factor, it is estimated that more and more real estate companies will be in trouble due to cash flow rupture, and the real estate industry may enter a cyclical adjustment. Since the real estate construction cycle is relatively long, generally around 5 years, once the adjustment begins, it is expected to last for a long time. This situation will inevitably affect the growth of real estate investment. Affected by factors such as rising prices for production materials, rising labor wage costs, financing difficulties and financing costs, and increased costs for energy conservation and pollution emission control, enterprise production costs have increased significantly. On the other hand, as the growth of total demand slows down and market competition becomes increasingly fierce, companies have limited room to increase product sales prices to transfer rising cost pressures.

In 2008, the price increases planned for home appliances, car products, etc. did not materialize in the end. On the contrary, in the fierce market competition, the price level has dropped. Taking these two aspects into account, the company's operating difficulties are quite prominent. From January to August, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 19.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was nearly 10 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Decreased corporate profits and increased operating difficulties may affect the company's ability to invest, thereby affecting the growth of corporate investment. Investment regulation in recent years has focused on controlling government-led administrative investment, with investment growth relying more on market-guided investment. Real estate and enterprise investment are the main entities guided by the market. Real estate investment accounts for more than one-fifth of the fixed asset investment in the whole society, and enterprise investment also accounts for a large proportion of all investment. The decline in the growth rate of these investments is expected to have a significant impact on overall investment growth. Therefore, investment growth in 2009 is likely to decline significantly. (3) The growth rate of foreign trade exports may continue to slow down. Affected by financial problems, the U.S. real economy may show a weakening trend in 2009, employment and income growth problems will further develop, and U.S. market demand will further weaken. Affected by financial problems and economic problems in the United States, the economies of the European Union and Japan are also expected to weaken, possibly before the United States. Affected by this, international market demand will also be further weakened. The U.S. dollar is likely to continue to weaken due to the widening fiscal deficit. These will have a negative impact on China's exports. After the baptism of changes in various factors in 2008, Chinese export companies began to adjust and upgrade, and achieved certain results. However, export companies still face many difficulties. If the international market demand further shrinks and the RMB continues to appreciate, it is expected that there will still be a greater impact on exports. Big constraints. Based on these circumstances, it is expected that export growth will slow down further in 2009. Especially when major problems occur in the U.S. economy and the world economy enters a recession, it is expected that export growth will decline significantly. Comprehensive analysis of the three changes in demand shows that if left unchecked and the market spontaneously adjusts the economic development trend, China's economy may continue to trend downward in 2009. If there are major changes in the external economic environment, combined with various domestic factors, then This may lead to a significant correction in economic growth. 3. We must fully estimate the potential of China’s economic development and comprehensively analyze various major influencing factors and international experience. From now to the middle of this century, China’s economy has and will continue to exhibit the kind of “catch-up” development that occurred in some countries after World War II. , the economy continues to maintain high growth, and the output value structure of the three industries, employment structure, urbanization rate, household consumption structure and level will accelerate to approach the characteristics of developed countries. From the analysis of China's economic modernization process, since 2001, China's economy has entered a stage of dual acceleration of industrialization and urbanization driven by consumption structure upgrades and technological innovation, and is expected to last for a long time. After 2003, China's economy has been growing rapidly for five consecutive years. In 2008, under the influence of the cumulative effects of macro-control policies and changes in the external economic environment, the economy experienced a high correction. Maintaining rapid growth for a longer period of time has a very positive effect. At the same time, it should be noted that favorable conditions to support rapid economic development still exist, including high levels of capital, labor, technology and other factors, and the domestic consumer investment market continues to expand. There is still a lot of room for growth. We have accumulated a relatively strong material and technical foundation. As long as we grasp the strength of macroeconomic policies and the timing of adjustments, we will be able to respond to changes in the external environment and continue to maintain China's economic stability in the context of a declining world economy. The overall trend of rapid development has exerted a positive influence on the world economy. First of all, there is huge room for expansion in the domestic consumer market. China is a developing country with a population of 1.3 billion. Compared with developed countries, the living standards of residents are relatively low, and the demand for improving living conditions is relatively common. Supported by continued rapid growth in income, demand for cars, housing, etc. is expected to continue to expand. Linked to the huge population size and the huge population transfer between urban and rural areas, it can be considered that China has a very broad space for the expansion of the consumer market in the future. Secondly, there is huge potential for domestic investment growth. Employment pressure and the urgent desire to improve the current situation have created a surge in investment enthusiasm; changes such as the expansion of industrial scale, deepening of internal connections between industries, and accelerated industrialization and urbanization brought about by the development of the real estate and automobile industries have provided a broad space for investment; huge The total national savings and foreign investment provide sufficient financial support for investment. Supported by these factors, there is huge potential for domestic investment growth. Third, the domestic asset market has huge development potential. As the urban population increases, urban residents have an urgent desire to improve their living conditions, which will inevitably promote the continuous expansion of housing demand; demand will inevitably drive the continuous expansion of housing construction and urban construction. Therefore, the real estate market has huge development potential and the real estate industry has broad development prospects. In the stock market, as total national savings continue to increase, the amount of funds seeking investment continues to increase and the scale is huge; as industrialization and urbanization continue to advance rapidly, the performance and asset quality of listed companies will continue to improve; as the stock market itself With the improvement of adjustment and basic institutional rules and supervision, the standardization of stock market investment activities will continue to increase and risks will decrease; with the advancement of joint-stock reform, the improvement of institutional mechanisms will support the continuous expansion of the scale of the stock market.

Therefore, the future development prospects of China's real estate market and stock market are very broad, and China's asset market is still a very young market with very high growth potential. Fourth, the government’s experience in macro-control continues to accumulate, and macro-control plays an increasingly important role in stabilizing economic operations and preventing ups and downs. The new round of relatively rapid economic growth is very strong, but the economy has not overheated across the board. On the contrary, there has been relatively high growth that has lasted for five years. This shows that macro-control plays a more prominent role in stabilizing economic growth. Changes in the current economic situation are not only affected by the external environment, but also the result of active regulation. In response to changes in the current economic situation, macroeconomic control policies have responded promptly, including adjusting loan limits, lowering loan interest rates and deposit reserve ratios of some financial institutions; reducing the income tax rate for high-tech enterprises and low-profit small businesses, and providing loan discounts to small and medium-sized enterprises and guarantees; adjust the stamp tax collection methods for securities transactions, etc. These have a positive effect on improving the business operating environment and the stock market investment environment.