The last article introduces the general situation of the upstream and downstream of the new energy electric vehicle industry and the battery segmentation industry (see the analysis of the lithium battery industry of new energy vehicles for details). This article will deeply explore the excavation of leading companies in various segments of the battery industry from the three dimensions of sales volume in the first quarter of 221, battery principle classification and comparison, and three sub-industries.

1. Domestic electric vehicles:

According to the data of China Automobile Association, the output of new energy vehicles from January to April was 75,, a year-on-year increase of 266%. From January to April, the sales volume was 732, vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 249.2%.

the sales volume of Q1 electric vehicle greatly exceeded the market expectation, so the sales volume in 221 was revised to 2.4-2.6 million. If this sales volume is reached in 221, the planned sales volume of 4-5 million vehicles by 225 mentioned in the last article will definitely come ahead of schedule. ,

2. Electric vehicles in Europe:

From January to April in 211, Europe sold 529,2 vehicles, up 135% year-on-year, and maintained the expectation of 2 million vehicles throughout the year.

3. Electric vehicles in the United States:

From January to April of 211, the sales of electric vehicles in the United States were 166,1, up 77% year-on-year, and the annual sales volume is expected to exceed 55,.

Both domestic and foreign countries showed a trend of substantial growth in the first quarter of 221 for the following three reasons:

1. Assessment of carbon emissions.

2. In the first quarter of 22, the epidemic broke out and the automobile opportunity stopped.

3, the support of national policies.

In the case of such a sharp increase in demand for electric vehicles, soochow securities predicted the sales of electric vehicles:

It is estimated that the global sales of electric vehicles will be 5.31 million in 21 years, up 75% year-on-year, including 2.81 million overseas; It will continue to grow at a high speed in 22 years. It is estimated that the annual sales of electric vehicles will be 7.31 million, up 38% year-on-year.

it is estimated that the global sales of electric vehicles will be about 16.77 million units in 225, with a compound growth rate of 4% compared with that in the past 2 years, including about 6.99/9.78 million units at home and abroad respectively. The global demand for power batteries is about 15gwh, of which 379/626gwh is domestic/overseas.

in the last article, we mentioned that batteries are now controlled by ternary and lithium iron, which together will account for 99.5% in 22.

under the influence of weilai, a more suitable battery, solid-state battery, appeared, and weilai is expected to deliver it in the fourth quarter of 222. Why did solid-state batteries appear again? Isn't ternary and lithium iron good? Let's start with the working principle of the battery.

1. Working principle of battery

The battery consists of four blocks, positive and negative electrodes, electrolyte and diaphragm.

let's compare these four modules: the positive electrode is the factory, the negative electrode is the apartment, the diaphragm is the ticket inspector, and the electrolyte is the bus. We still lack an important "employee"-lithium ion.

The working model of the battery is "employee"-Li-ion travels between the factory and the apartment, riding the electrolyte vehicle "bus", and needs to be checked by the diaphragm "ticket inspector" every time he gets on or off the bus.

charging process: employees are tired after a day's work, and need to go back to the apartment to sleep after work to replenish energy. Lithium ions are conducted through the electrolyte and pass through the diaphragm to reach the negative electrode. The diaphragm effectively prevents the passage of electrons and only allows lithium ions to pass through.

discharge process: employees have a good rest in the apartment, replenish their energy and come to work in the factory by means of transportation. Lithium ions are conducted through the electrolyte, pass through the separator and reach the positive electrode of the battery.

then why is the battery less durable after a period of use?

This is because after the battery works for a period of time, employees will be aged and retired, that is, lithium ions will be reduced; The factory's benefit is not good, and the apartment is damaged and can't be occupied, that is, the positive and negative active materials are reduced; The long-term wear and disrepair of buses leads to traffic paralysis, that is, the ohmic impedance of batteries increases and the conductivity decreases.

2. Comparison between solid and liquid

The difference between a solid battery and a liquid battery is that the electrolyte of the liquid battery is liquid, and there is a diaphragm to prevent electrons from passing through. The electrolyte of the solid-state battery is solid, and the diaphragm is eliminated.

Advantages of solid-state battery:

A: Good safety. Liquid batteries are flammable and explosive, while solid batteries can inhibit lithium dendrites without electrolyte leakage, thus improving safety.

B: high energy density. The energy density of liquid lithium battery, whether it is iron lithium or high nickel, can not reach 3wh/kg, generally around 2wh/kg, while that of solid battery can reach 3-4wh/kg. Mainly because the solid-state battery does not use graphite cathode, but directly uses metal lithium as cathode, which improves the density of the whole battery.

C: long cycle life.

disadvantages of solid-state battery:

A: the interface impedance is too large. Electrolyte is solid, and the transmission power of ions in solid is low, resulting in excessive interface impedance.

B: immature technology leads to high cost.

trend pattern of solid-state batteries: At present, some enterprises have entered the trial stage of solid-state batteries, and the future solid-state batteries are the trend. Liquid batteries can't solve the problem of high mileage, but solid-state batteries can.

At present, liquid batteries are still the mainstay, paying attention to the development of solid-state batteries.

1, cathode material

cathode material: ternary (NCM) and lithium iron (LFP). The ternary elements are nickel 5, nickel 6 and nickel 8.

in the cathode materials, ternary and lithium iron are divided into 64%, while in ternary, the penetration of nickel 8 continues to increase, and it is still the home of nickel 5 and nickel 6 at present. With the passage of time, nickel 8 will surely become the mainstream of the market.

cathode material is a technology and capital-intensive industry, and the product price is strongly related to the upstream metal price. Cathode material is the core link of battery material, and its cost accounts for nearly 4% of lithium battery.

cathode materials are facing the pressure of technology iteration and cost reduction at the same time, and high nickel and cobalt-free solid-state batteries are the focus of the next generation technology. At present, the investment of ternary high nickel production line is 6 million yuan/1, tons, and the production capacity of domestic first-line cathode materials enterprises is 4, tons, mostly promoting the construction of 1,-ton base, which requires a large amount of funds.

the global shipment of cathode materials has increased from less than 1, tons in 213 to 6, tons in 22, with a compound annual growth rate of 3%. It is estimated that the global scale of cathode materials will exceed 2 billion yuan in 225, and the domestic output of cathode materials will be 51, tons in 22, up 27% year-on-year, of which NCM ternary materials account for 46% and Ferrous lithium phosphate accounts for 25%.

The cathode material is the most dispersed among the four key raw materials of lithium battery. At present, CR3 is only 2%-3% and CR5 is only 3%-4%. The main reason is that downstream battery factories generally produce part of their own cathode capacity for the sake of supply chain safety and product quality, while upstream mineral enterprises will also adopt the strategy of extending downstream by virtue of their resource advantages, which will occupy the market space of independent cathode materials enterprises to some extent.

At present, the gross profit margin of domestic cathode materials enterprises is mostly below 2%, and the gross profit margin of the downstream materials enterprises mainly facing the domestic market continues to be under pressure, while the gross profit margin of the offshore enterprises represented by Dangsheng Technology remains stable as a whole.

Summary: 1. The concentration of cathode material industry is not high, mainly due to upstream and downstream extrusion and technical iteration.

2, high nickel and cobalt-free are the current trends, and solid-state batteries will be the trend in the future.

3. The top five companies in the cathode material industry: German Nano, Rongbai Technology, Barrett, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Ba Maw, Tianjin.

The top five ternary materials companies: Rongbai Technology, Tianjin Ba Maw, Changyuan Lithium Branch, Dangsheng Technology and Shanshan Energy.

4. The raw materials in the upstream of the positive electrode are focused on: nickel, lithium and cobalt. Representative companies: Shengtun Mining, Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium and Huayou Cobalt.

2. Negative electrode material

Negative electrode material is a technology and capital-intensive industry, and the product quality has a great influence on the energy density, cycle life, fast charging performance and other aspects of the battery, and its cost accounts for 6-8% of lithium batteries.

At present, the investment in anode production line is 2-3 million yuan/1, tons, and the production capacity of domestic first-line anode materials enterprises is 7-8, tons, so the expansion of production capacity and integration construction have great demand for funds. The production process of negative electrode is relatively mature, and this link is rarely laid out in battery factories.

the domestic output of anode materials increased from 5, tons in 214 to 365, tons in 22, with a compound annual growth rate of about 4%, in which the proportion of artificial graphite increased year by year, and the domestic market share reached 84% in 22. It is estimated that the global anode material industry will reach 4 billion in 225.

The concentration of anode materials is high, and the domestic anode material CR5 accounts for 78% in 22. Betray, Shanshan and Jiangxi Zichen are the top three traditional negative electrodes in China. Dongguan Kaijin's shipments have increased rapidly in recent years, mainly due to the increase in the installed capacity of power batteries in Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, and it has begun to rank among the first-line negative electrode manufacturers.

Negative listed companies have concentrated industries and good profitability, with gross profit margin between 25% and 4%. The anode graphite is mainly produced by outsourcing, accounting for 4% of the cost. At present, anode manufacturers have started to build their own graphitization capacity. In the future, the integration of anode production is the industry trend, and the overall industry profitability will be further improved.

Carbon-silicon is the next generation anode material which is generally optimistic in the industry, and lithium metal is the ultimate solution of anode material, that is, solid-state battery.

summary: 1. concentration of anode industry and integration of anode industry are the future trends.

2, graphite-carbon silicon-metal lithium is the development trend of negative electrode.

3. The top four companies of anode materials: Betray, Jiangxi Zichen, Shanshan, Dongguan Kaijin.

3. Diaphragm material

Diaphragm is a technology and capital-intensive industry, and its cost accounts for about 8-1% of lithium batteries. In the diaphragm cost, raw materials and manufacturing costs account for a relatively large proportion, so the scale effect of enterprises is strong.

at present, the investment of diaphragm production line is 4-5 million yuan/1 million square meters, and the production capacity of domestic first-line diaphragm enterprises is 3-3.5 billion square meters. The technical barrier of separator is high, which is the latest link to realize localization among the four battery materials. Except for a few battery companies such as BYD and SKI, other battery factories are mainly outsourcing separators.

the domestic diaphragm production has increased from 5 million in 214 to 3.7 billion in 22, with a compound annual growth rate of about 4%, among which wet diaphragm accounts for a relatively high proportion, and the domestic market share will reach 7% in 22. It is estimated that the scale of the global lithium battery separator industry will exceed 3 billion yuan in 225.

The scale effect of diaphragm industry is strong, the cost advantage of leading enterprises is obvious, and the industry concentration continues to increase. In the past 2 years, domestic wet diaphragm CR5 accounted for 93%, among which Enjie acquired Shanghai Jieli.

The gross profit margin of diaphragm enterprises is generally high, at around 4%, but it has gradually declined in recent years. Diaphragm is the link with the strongest expectation of price reduction among the four major materials, and enterprises need to continuously reduce manufacturing costs to maintain high profitability.

among the four major materials of lithium battery, the investment per unit capacity of diaphragm is high, and it is necessary to purchase and debug the equipment on the basis of mastering the process. After installation, it still takes a long time to climb the slope to ensure a high yield. Technology and capital-intensive features restrict the entry of new entrants.

The certification period of first-line battery factories is usually 2-3 years, and then they can supply in batches. The long period from capacity planning to revenue realization ensures the first-Mover advantage and scale advantage of the leading enterprises.

Summary: 1. It is very difficult for new entrants in the diaphragm material industry, and the industry will further move closer to the leader.

2. Wet coating is the development trend of the industry.

3. Leading company of negative electrode material: Enjie, Xingyuan material.

4. Electrolyte material

Electrolyte is the channel through which lithium ions are transported between the anode and cathode, and its cost accounts for about 6-8% of lithium batteries. Raw materials such as lithium salt, solvent and additive account for about 9% of the cost of electrolyte ring. In order to reduce the cost, the layout of raw material capacity has become the development trend of the industry.

At present, the investment in electrolyte production line is less than 1 million yuan/1, tons, and the production capacity of domestic first-line electrolyte enterprises is 5,-1, tons. Raw materials are the key factors affecting the price and production capacity of electrolyte, and enterprises with raw material production capacity have greater profit elasticity.

the domestic electrolyte production increased from 4, tons in 214 to 25, tons in 22, with a compound annual growth rate of over 35%, in which the proportion of power electrolyte increased year by year, and the domestic market share reached 62% in 22. It is estimated that the global electrolyte industry will reach nearly 45 billion yuan in 225.

in 22, CR5 will account for 74% of the domestic electrolyte market, and Tianci, Xinzhoubang, Dongguan Shanshan and Guotai Huarong will be the first echelon.

The gross profit margin level of Tianci Materials and Xinzhoubang Electrolyte business has been maintained at more than 25% for a long time; Tianci Materials produces part of lithium hexafluorophosphate, and the solvent production capacity of Xinzhoubang will soon be put into production. It is a major trend for electrolyte manufacturers to extend upstream in the future.

summary: 1. The concentration of the industry is high, and manufacturers will extend upstream to ensure profits.

2, the additive of electrolyte is the most important.

3. Top 3 companies in electrolyte industry: Tianci Materials, Xinzhoubang, Jiangsu Guotai.

4, lithium hexafluorophosphate faucet: polyfluoride

5, lithium battery upstream and downstream end

A: new energy thermal management: the pattern is scattered, but domestic enterprises accelerate global substitution. Representative enterprises: Sanhua Zhikong, Yin Lun, Aotejia. Among them, Sanhua Zhikong is the leader in thermal management, and Yin Lun shares are mainly in traditional business, deploying new energy into Tesla supply chain.

B: lithium cobalt nickel industry: resource industry, cycle industry, with high entry threshold. Domestic resources account for a relatively small proportion, and the dependence on foreign countries is high. Representative leaders: Tianqi Lithium Industry, Ganfeng Lithium Industry, Huayou Cobalt Industry and Luoyang Molybdenum Industry.

C: lithium battery equipment: the power battery has entered a new cycle, the expansion of production has accelerated, equipment manufacturers have ushered in new opportunities, and leading manufacturers have made clear profits.

Four processes of lithium battery equipment:

1) Pre-process of battery core: including stirring, coating, rolling, cutting, production/die cutting and other processes. The equipment involved in this process section includes vacuum mixer, coater, roller press, slitting machine, tabletting machine/die cutting machine, etc.

2) battery core intermediate process: mainly including winding or lamination, welding, electrolyte injection and other processes. The equipment involved in this process section includes winder, laminator, welding machine, drying equipment, automatic liquid injection machine, etc.

3) Post-battery technology: mainly including battery formation, volume detection, etc. This process involves the charging and discharging motor (used for chemical composition) and detection of lithium ion batteries.