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The Royal Institute of International Studies: OPEC is at risk of disintegration. What is the basis for saying this?

If OPEC plans to reduce oil production next year, the price of oil next year is likely to experience significant upward fluctuations. However, due to the global economic downturn, OPEC's oil production reduction plan cannot bring sustained price increases to oil prices. Because during the global recession, the world's major economies will not have much demand for oil. Moreover, OPEC's oil production cuts will also have a certain impact on its own share of oil, because once OPEC cuts oil production, other major oil countries can also increase production to occupy the oil market. It can be said that OPEC’s oil production cuts will also have the following impacts.

It can be said that reducing production to promote price increases is an important means for OPEC to influence oil prices, because OPEC members are all major oil producers in the world. If OPEC members reach an agreement to reduce production, oil prices will inevitably rise rapidly, which will also bring certain benefits to increase their own economic income.

Judging from this year’s economic situation, the economy will not improve significantly in the next few years. Therefore, timely reduction of oil production can also avoid serious overproduction. Because once there is a surplus of oil production, it will inevitably lead to a continued decline in oil prices.

OPEC’s main opponents are actually the two major oil countries, Russia and the United States. If Russia and the United States both increase production during the OPEC production reduction stage, it will inevitably lead to OPEC’s production reduction plan. Possibility of miscarriage. This will inevitably cause great losses to OPEC. However, all members of the OPEC organization are not exempt from production cuts, which means that if they want to stabilize oil prices, OPEC members may have to further reduce production, which seriously damages the economic interests of member countries. The reason given by the countries that want to withdraw is that the oil production they produce is relatively small and will not have a huge impact on global oil prices. They hope to find new partners, which means they also want to produce oil with all their strength. , maintain a stable income. The current oil supply pattern is no longer dominated by OPEC, so OPEC's ability to adjust prices has weakened.

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