Exchange rate can be regarded as the price of a country's currency, which has always been the focus of economic development all over the world and an important economic issue closely related to a country's national economy. Its appreciation or depreciation will have a great impact on a country's import and export trade. Therefore, the stability of a country's currency is related to economic development at home and abroad. Since the reform and opening up, China's foreign trade has advanced by leaps and bounds, and accumulated a large amount of trade surplus and foreign exchange reserves in international competition. At present, some western countries, led by the United States, claim that the value of RMB is seriously undervalued, which makes the RMB face unprecedented pressure of appreciation. The appreciation of RMB is an important issue related to the internal and external balance of China's economy, and the change of RMB exchange rate is the result of many economic factors.
Any country's exchange rate system is inseparable from its national conditions. China implements a single and managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, which is determined by China's current economic development level, financial supervision level and enterprise affordability. If it is divorced from reality and the RMB exchange rate is allowed to float freely, it will bring great chaos to China's economy and the consequences will be unimaginable. China government and enterprises should take active measures to cope with the pressure of RMB appreciation, so as to safeguard China's economic interests.
This paper first analyzes the background and reasons of RMB appreciation, and on this basis, discusses the positive and negative effects of RMB appreciation on China's import and export trade, so as to put forward China's strategies to deal with RMB appreciation.
Keywords: RMB appreciation, import and export trade, government measures, enterprise strategy
Chapter 65438 +0 RMB appreciation background
The issue of RMB appreciation is not a new topic, but it has always been a hot topic. After the American subprime mortgage crisis, the issue of RMB appreciation reappeared in front of people and became the focus of discussion in the international community. The author believes that the appreciation of RMB will not only bring benefits to the people of China, but also bring disadvantages, and the disadvantages far outweigh the benefits. It is very important to maintain the stability of RMB, which will not only help China's economic development, but also help the world economy achieve the Millennium Plan. This paper studies the influence of RMB appreciation on China's foreign trade, and then draws the countermeasures of China's import and export trade.
After the reform and opening up, structural changes have taken place in China's export products. The proportion of primary processed products in export products has been declining, while the proportion of processed products has gradually increased. The technical content of export products is getting higher and higher, mainly mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products. At present, hundreds of industrial products in China rank first in the world, and the trend of China industry changing from "workshop" to "world factory" is very obvious. The continuous expansion of the current account surplus reflects that the value of RMB and the external sales price of commodities may be underestimated, and a strong economy will inevitably create a strong RMB.
The pressure of RMB exchange rate appreciation is not entirely from the inside, but also from the outside.
In recent years, the world economy has entered a trough, and the United States, Japan and Europe have all encountered their own economic problems. In this context, trade protectionism has quietly emerged in various countries. Especially under the pressure of domestic interest groups, governments try to make a fuss about the RMB exchange rate. The main reason why the United States wants the RMB to appreciate is that China's currency manipulation has caused serious manufacturing unemployment in the United States. They believe that China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan Province Province of China and other countries and regions deliberately manipulate the currency exchange rate to gain a huge export competitive advantage, especially China's RMB is seriously undervalued. It is this phenomenon that makes the manufacturing industry in the United States shrink, a large number of enterprises close down and unemployment is serious. Therefore, the U.S. government must exert more pressure on the China government to make the RMB appreciate.
Chapter II Influence of RMB Appreciation on Import and Export Trade
2. 1 RMB appreciation has a positive impact on China's import and export trade.
2. 1. 1 Promote the balance of international payments and improve China's huge trade surplus.
At present, China exports a large number of commodities and relies heavily on energy and bulk raw materials. As a global production base, domestic resources are greatly lost and the environment is deteriorating. At the same time, export commodities are often subject to foreign anti-dumping. The appreciation of RMB has raised the price of our products. On the one hand, it promotes the rational allocation of resources in the world, on the other hand, it also reduces trade friction.
2. 1.2 is conducive to improving China's import and export trade conditions and environment.
The appreciation of RMB will reduce the prices of imported products, especially raw materials and high-tech equipment, and enterprises will speed up technology introduction, improve production efficiency, upgrade products and realize dynamic comparison and upgrading of products. At the same time, with the improvement of enterprise productivity, the quality of export products has been improved to the greatest extent, which helps China enterprises to extend from the low end of the product industry chain to the middle and high end and improve the terms of trade. This will help us make better use of world resources, increase national welfare and generally improve the international competitiveness of our products.
2. 1.3 is conducive to accelerating the adjustment of industrial structure and improving the level of international division of labor in China.
The appreciation of RMB can most efficiently squeeze out those manufacturing industries with low technical content and added value and poor management, which is in line with the development direction of China's industrial structure transformation. At the same time, the appreciation of RMB will lead to more intense competition in the industry, prompting enterprises to enhance their competitiveness through technological management innovation. In this way, those innovative and competitive manufacturing giants will become stronger, vicious competition among overseas inefficient enterprises will be reduced, and the pace of "going out" of enterprises will be accelerated. From the international experience, the international brands of Japan, Germany and many other countries have grown up slowly in the process of the appreciation of their own currencies, because the continuous appreciation of their own currencies makes them face the pressure of "survival of the fittest", thus constantly encouraging enterprises to innovate and re-innovate, and finally moving towards the road of world-famous brands. It can be seen that the appreciation of RMB is of great practical significance to promote the adjustment of trade structure of Chinese enterprises and stimulate independent innovation.
2. 1.4 is conducive to reducing the anti-dumping lawsuits suffered by China's export products.
For a long time, China has implemented the export-oriented strategy mainly by expanding the quantity of cheap labor-intensive products, and quickly occupied the low-end market of international labor-intensive industries by virtue of its price advantage. Higher market share will inevitably increase the trade conflict between China and other countries. In recent years, China has suffered the most anti-dumping lawsuits in the world. Through the appreciation of RMB, the foreign currency price of export products can be appropriately raised, and the anti-dumping pressure of foreign markets on China's export products can be alleviated. At the same time, export support policies such as foreign exchange retention, export subsidies and trade credit can be appropriately reduced, which is also conducive to improving the competitiveness of export enterprises themselves.
2. 1.5 helps to curb inflation.
In the case of appreciation, the price of domestic products has not been affected. However, the price of imported products will fall because of the decline of exchange rate, which will eventually drive the price of the whole society down. And then achieve the purpose of deflation. In the period of inflation, the appreciation of local currency is undoubtedly a powerful weapon to avoid hyperinflation.
2.2 the negative impact of RMB appreciation on China's import and export trade
2.2. 1 weakened the international competitiveness of China's export products.
The appreciation of RMB will increase the enterprise cost of export trade, and enterprises will inevitably increase the quotation of export products in the international market, which will directly weaken their competitive advantage at low prices in the international market, and the international competitiveness of their export products will be suppressed to a certain extent, thus reducing the export trade volume.
2.2.2 Impact on China's export enterprises, especially labor-intensive enterprises.
Goods in China are "cheap", and many goods in China enter the world market not by RMB exchange rate, but mainly by cheap production costs. Therefore, the appreciation of RMB will inevitably impact China's export enterprises, especially labor-intensive enterprises. In the international market, the export price of our products, especially labor-intensive products, is far lower than that of similar products in other countries. The reason is that China's labor price is low, and the fierce domestic competition makes export enterprises compete to adopt the strategy of selling at a low price and paying no expense. With the appreciation of RMB, the price of China's export products in foreign currency will increase, weakening its price competitiveness; If the foreign currency price of export products remains unchanged, it will inevitably squeeze the profit space of export enterprises and have an impact on export enterprises, especially labor-intensive enterprises.
2.2.3 Restrict the enthusiasm of foreign investors to invest in China.
Since China's reform and opening up, preferential conditions have attracted a large number of foreign-funded enterprises and multinational companies to enter China, and a large part of their products are exported except for domestic sales. The rise of RMB exchange rate means the increase of foreign investment cost in China. Therefore, foreign capital may turn to flow into China's capital market, thus affecting the capital investment of foreign-funded enterprises in China.
2.2.4 China's huge foreign exchange reserves have shrunk.
After the appreciation of RMB, China's huge foreign exchange reserves will face the threat of shrinking. By the end of 2007, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 1.53 trillion US dollars. Adequate foreign exchange reserves are an important symbol of China's growing economic strength and improving the level of opening up to the outside world, and also a powerful guarantee for us to promote domestic economic development and participate in foreign economic activities. However, once the RMB appreciates, the huge foreign exchange reserves will face the threat of shrinking. If RMB appreciates by 10% against USD and other major convertible currencies, China's foreign exchange reserves will shrink by 10%. This is a serious problem that we are facing. China's foreign exchange reserves are shrinking every day because of the appreciation of RMB, and China's foreign exchange reserves account for 70% in US dollars. Because of the continuous appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar, the US dollar reserves are shrinking every day. Industry insiders predict that the appreciation of RMB will reach 12% in 2008. Assuming that the monthly appreciation rate is 1%, the monthly loss of foreign exchange reserves is11900 million USD. Experts suggest that the dollar reserves in foreign exchange reserves should be greatly reduced to minimize the negative impact of RMB appreciation on the dollar reserves. Moreover, we should eat a lot of gold while reducing the dollar reserve, and make up for the economic losses brought by the dollar reserve to the country with the continuous appreciation of gold.
Chapter III: Countermeasures of China's import and export trade.
3. 1 macro level of government departments
3. 1. 1 Adjust the export tax rebate rate of products
At present, China's average export tax rebate rate is still at a high level, so we can consider making rational use of foreign exchange reserves to speed up the repayment in arrears, so as to speed up the capital turnover of enterprises and reduce the pressure of national financial expenditure. The result of lowering the tax rate will slow down China's export growth and reduce the current account balance, thus alleviating the pressure of RMB appreciation and promoting the upgrading of China's industrial structure.
3. 1.2 Reasonable adjustment of domestic deposit interest rate or loan interest rate
The deposit interest rate should be lowered to make the RMB yield lower than other countries' currencies, such as the US dollar, which will help to avoid a large amount of "hot money" flowing into China and reduce the pressure of RMB appreciation caused by the surplus of capital account; Raising the loan interest rate will increase the cost of export enterprises, which will slow down the export growth and relieve the appreciation pressure of RMB from the current account surplus. In addition, we should strictly monitor and resolutely put an end to speculative hot money, so as to maintain China's exchange rate system and macroeconomic stability.
3. 1.3 Moderate control and rational utilization of China's foreign exchange reserves
Rational use of China's sufficient foreign exchange reserves and improvement of export competitiveness of enterprises are the key to deal with the trade impact of RMB appreciation. From the micro-basic analysis of the pressure of RMB appreciation, we can know that the pressure of RMB appreciation comes from a large number of foreign exchange reserves. Therefore, using China's current large amount of foreign exchange reserves to import China's scarce resources and urgently needed technologies can not only alleviate the pressure of RMB appreciation accumulated in a large number of foreign exchange reserves, but also improve the production capacity and overall quality of Chinese enterprises, which is ultimately conducive to the export of foreign products and give full play to the beneficial role of RMB appreciation in China's trade. The specific ways of use are as follows: we can establish and improve the futures reserve mechanism of China's important strategic resources in the international financial market, such as China's scarce resources such as oil, copper and iron ore, and make necessary preparations for safeguarding national security; Relax foreign exchange control, increase the proportion of foreign exchange used by outstanding enterprises, encourage domestic outstanding enterprises to invest directly abroad, and improve the efficiency of foreign exchange use; Buying goods that are in short supply in China, balancing domestic prices, and using RMB appreciation to reduce the pressure of excessive price increase in some industries and products will also offset possible domestic inflation.
3. 1.4 Reform and improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism
Finally, to ease the pressure of RMB appreciation and ensure the rapid and stable development of China's foreign trade, we must implement the reform of exchange rate formation mechanism. At present, the level of economic development and the perfection of economic system in China are not enough to make China fully open its foreign exchange market and capital market, so the exchange rate level should not and cannot respond to the changes in capital account. Perfecting and reforming the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism must be gradual. When conditions are ripe, the floating range of RMB against the US dollar can be expanded. On this basis, we can gradually change the single linked exchange rate mechanism of RMB pegged to the US dollar into the linked exchange rate mechanism pegged to a basket of currencies. After the necessary transition of exchange rate system, the overall control ability of China's foreign trade and the comprehensive strength of national economy will continue to grow, which will realize the complete opening of foreign investment projects and the complete floating of RMB exchange rate, and then develop and strengthen China's foreign trade supported by RMB as a strong currency.
3. 1.5 The development strategy has changed from export-oriented to domestic demand-oriented.
At the same time, China must actively change its development strategy from export-oriented to domestic demand. China has a vast territory, a large consumer population, huge domestic demand and greater market potential. When it is impacted by international economic changes, China also has a lot of room for manoeuvre, which is not only conducive to improving the mode of economic growth, but also can directly digest part of its exports. Moreover, the policy of increasing import demand and expanding domestic demand can offset the possible decline in external demand after RMB appreciation. Although the rise of RMB exchange rate will automatically expand domestic demand, it is far from enough. This part of the new demand will mainly be the demand for foreign products. Generally speaking, there is still a lot of policy space for China to expand domestic demand, such as reducing taxes, adjusting tax points, reducing fees, increasing expenditures, eliminating financing discrimination against private enterprises, and abolishing tax privileges enjoyed by foreign-funded enterprises.
3. 1.6 Improve the service system of import and export trade
The state should improve the foreign trade service system and eliminate non-market obstacles. Non-market factors have a great influence on the export trade of enterprises. Government departments should strive to create a "soft environment" for enterprises in terms of industrial policy regulation, improving work efficiency, standardizing economic order, avoiding low-level competition, speeding up customs clearance, effectively implementing preferential export policies, and speeding up tax refund, so as to avoid unnecessary losses for enterprises and build a solid "umbrella" for enterprises. Here, the government should give full play to its functions and improve the foreign trade service system, such as focusing on the implementation of national and provincial export tax rebate policies and making good use of various support policies; Strengthen the response to technical barriers to trade and anti-dumping, do a good job in fair import and export trade and safeguard industrial safety; Actively publicize the encouragement policies to promote foreign trade export, mobilize the export enthusiasm of private, state-owned and foreign-funded enterprises to the maximum extent, cultivate large exporters and expand the export scale.
3.2 Micro-level of foreign trade enterprises
3.2. 1 Optimize the structure of export products and enhance the international competitiveness of products.
Enterprises should speed up the pace of product structure adjustment, further change the operating mechanism and strive to improve the competitiveness of export products. After the reform of exchange rate mechanism, export enterprises should strengthen technological innovation, management innovation and brand innovation, improve the scientific and technological content and added value of products, improve labor productivity and other measures to fundamentally improve the competitiveness of export enterprises. In addition, tap the internal potential, reduce product costs and improve economic benefits. In order to save unnecessary expenses, most export enterprises should start with internal management, fully tap internal potential, reduce consumption, minimize raw material procurement links, reduce procurement costs and improve production efficiency. Today, with the globalization of the world economy, China enterprises are facing a market that competes with world brands. Export enterprises should improve the grade of export products as soon as possible, enhance the brand connotation and design ability of products, create brand advantages of export products, and take the road of high-end brand names. Only in this way can we avoid foreign countries frequently exerting pressure on China enterprises through anti-dumping and special safeguard measures.
3.2.2 Diversification of settlement to enhance the awareness and ability to avoid exchange rate risks.
Enterprises engaged in international trade are bound to be influenced by different monetary policies of the same family. At present, the management of the same capital market in various countries is generally realized through monetary policy. The exchange rate changes between the domestic currency and other countries also reflect a country's policy level. Some countries implement a free exchange rate policy that is automatically regulated by the market, some countries implement a managed exchange rate policy, and some countries implement a fixed exchange rate policy. At present, most countries implement a free or managed floating exchange rate policy. Due to different situations, the strength of national currencies in the international market will be different, and there will be ups and downs. Through the study of exchange rate policies in different countries, China's foreign trade enterprises can use the currency with an upward trend in the world as the export settlement currency. Because there are few cases in which small and medium-sized enterprises gain active position in the international market, it is also a good choice to choose the third kind of coin settlement. If there is no choice, we can reduce the impact of RMB appreciation through the methods of Qin Hai and Forfaiting, or through swap business or the comprehensive use of several methods.
It can be said that under the current reality of RMB appreciation, export-oriented SMEs must adopt various settlement methods to avoid exchange rate risks. On the one hand, export enterprises should actively use exchange rate hedging tools, including timely settlement of foreign exchange; Conducting business in multiple currencies; Strengthen the cooperation between banks and enterprises, and use the forward settlement of foreign exchange, foreign exchange futures products, foreign exchange option products, swap products, financial instruments and financial advisory services provided by banks to avoid exchange rate risks. On the other hand, export enterprises should gradually integrate resources, make rational use of financial leverage, moderately increase the pace of overseas expansion through mergers and acquisitions, and establish a global production and trade system. This can improve the resistance to exchange rate changes and reduce the impact of individual market fluctuations.
3.2.3 Diversification of the international market
Diversification of international market is a conventional strategy adopted by international multinational companies. Multinational companies often invest in different countries and markets to reduce risks or maximize benefits. For a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises in China, they did not surpass the strength of the company, which led to a great blow to export-oriented enterprises. Many enterprises are forced to change production or close down, and its collateral effect is to increase the bad debts of some banks. Therefore, SMEs get less financial support from banks and other financial institutions. In order to solve this problem, small and medium-sized enterprises must learn to operate in different markets, and don't put their eggs in one basket, otherwise once one market is affected, the enterprises will be devastated. In the international market operation, don't combine different markets, we should develop both the dollar market and other markets. Only in this way can the company's international risks be greatly reduced. For qualified enterprises, they can invest overseas in different target markets according to their own characteristics, so as to promote the steady growth of exports through overseas investment. We can set up factories overseas, go deep into foreign terminal markets, reduce intermediate circulation links, improve the operating efficiency of export enterprises and the price competitiveness of export products, better provide local consumers with production, sales and after-sales services, and improve product reputation.
3.2.4 Industrial upgrading
Industrial upgrading is an important measure for enterprises under the background of RMB appreciation. The focus of this approach is to develop new products on the basis of the company's existing products, or to extend the products forward or backward, so as to reduce the intermediate profit links of products, and directly hand over the profits to dealers in domestic and foreign markets until they are handed over to consumers, thus reducing the impact of RMB appreciation. This kind of industrial upgrading is completely different from the practice of many export-oriented small and medium-sized enterprises in China. Industrial upgrading is the foundation of the company's existing industrial development. On this basis, it is very beneficial for the development of enterprises to realize the development of enterprises through certain technological expansion.
conclusion
RMB appreciation is a double-edged sword. If we make use of the situation and take correct countermeasures, we can make full use of the positive impact of appreciation and overcome the negative impact of appreciation as before. Therefore, it is very important to insist on a small appreciation and constantly improve the managed exchange rate system. In addition, it is also very important to avoid mistakes in countermeasures, look at the impact and influence of RMB appreciation clearly, and formulate development strategies suitable for big countries' economies.
Although the appreciation of RMB increases the relative price of international trade, weakens the core competitiveness of China's foreign trade products and increases the operating pressure and cost of China's foreign trade enterprises, these are also short-term effects. Under the macro-control of government departments, by promoting foreign trade enterprises to adjust their trade structure, constantly promoting independent innovation, improving product performance, technical content and service level, and turning adverse effects into opportunities for enterprise development, foreign trade enterprises in China can be promoted to continuously improve their product competitiveness and open up a broader international market. However, the premise here is that the RMB exchange rate should not be greatly adjusted, and it must grow steadily at a reasonable and balanced level in combination with the trend changes of international capital and major currencies.
Although RMB appreciation will have some adverse effects on China's economic development in the short term, in the long run, it will help to improve the economic efficiency of the export sector, promote structural adjustment and enhance export competitiveness. At the same time, the appreciation of RMB can reduce the import cost, promote domestic enterprises to import foreign advanced equipment and technology, help domestic enterprises upgrade, improve efficiency, and finally reverse the trade deficit, thus improving China's trade balance. Effectively eliminating the adverse effects of RMB appreciation on China's import and export trade requires the joint efforts of all parties. Appropriate measures should be taken to prevent RMB from fluctuating greatly to reduce its adverse impact on China's import and export trade, and make full use of the promotion of RMB's slight appreciation to China's foreign trade development, so as to reduce the pressure of RMB's further appreciation and avoid the adverse consequences caused by RMB's fluctuating greatly.
The appreciation of RMB is the result of dual factors at home and abroad, which not only promotes the economic development of China, but also brings some problems. Facing this double-edged sword, our government must actively respond, improve macro-control policies, realize sound and rapid development of our economy, truly bring our economy into the track of international economic development, adapt to the inevitable trend of economic internationalization and conform to the historical trend. We should constantly improve the existing economic laws and policies and establish and improve relevant mechanisms to solve and prevent the negative impact of RMB appreciation and safeguard the safe operation of the national economy.