The science and technology innovation board will land in two months at the earliest, and not more than half a year at the latest. It will definitely land.
Will the stock market peak in half a year?
Anyway, I don't believe that the stock market will exceed 6000 points in six months. ...
What is a bull market? The symbol of the next bull market is to hit a record high, breaking through 6 124 points, and constantly hitting new heights like US stocks! This is the real bull market.
The bull market is not really over until it breaks through a new high. Do you want to keep playing?
The role of the stock market is far from complete in the last science and technology innovation board.
With the aging problem in China becoming more and more prominent, the future of providing for the aged is a big problem. Although the country always says that there will be no shortage of pensions in the future, in fact, many people are worried. After all, people are living longer and longer now, and more and more people are receiving pensions, and fewer and fewer people will pay social security in the future.
How to solve this problem? We should learn from America and build a super bull market.
Americans rely heavily on the stock market for their pensions, which is why American stocks are still strong even if they are bullish 10 years.
That's because the United States is aging more seriously than China.
Are the aging countries, as well as Europe and Japan, as economically as China? Per capita is higher than that of China, but the growth rate is not as fast as that of China. But other people's stock markets are better than China's, and they are constantly hitting new highs.
Aging is the driving force of bull market.
The stock market is the key to solve the problem of aging.
Science and technology innovation board can be described as "popular", whether it is a new trading system or a new model, investors are very "favored". Many investors hope to "cash out" on the science and technology innovation board. So, after landing in science and technology innovation board, will you still invest in A shares?
Often investors' understanding of science and technology innovation board is a threshold fee of 500,000 yuan. However, there are many changes in the science and technology innovation board. Let me put it briefly:
1, and the total amount of the issuer's listing is not less than 30 million yuan; The initial public offering of listed shares reached more than 25% of the company's total share capital, and the total share capital exceeded 400 million yuan, exceeding10%;
2. Cancel the direct pricing when listing, that is, cancel the bondage of 23 times PE valuation, the valuation is determined by the market, and the professional institutional investors make inquiry pricing;
3. The proportion of offline placement is increased to 60%-80%;
4. The daily trading system changes, and the trading mechanism is: t+1;
5. The trading day price limit is relaxed to 20%, and there is no price limit in the first five trading days after the listing of listed companies;
6. The number of new shares to be placed is reduced from 1000 to 500;
7. The strictest delisting mechanism in "history";
8. Allow red chip companies to send CDRs to science and technology innovation board.
9. Allow loss-making companies to go public.
Judging from the detailed rules, first, the proportion of price increases and decreases has widened; Secondly, loss-making companies have been allowed to go public; Third, the time for the company to go public has not been fixed for five transactions; Fourth, the cancellation of listing pricing is determined by the market. Although, such a mechanism may bring considerable benefits to many investors in a short time, especially in the first five trading days of listing.
But is it really possible? Everyone wants to be "the first person to eat crabs", but is it really "crabs"? Even if you can make a fortune in science and technology innovation board for the first time, can you still make a profit in the future? You can't. Why can't you always make a profit?
This refers to non-professional investors, that is, ordinary investors. Because ordinary investors do not have mature analytical skills, professional trading strategies and calm mood. Therefore, it is difficult to maintain a stable profit in this case.
This requires investors to correctly look at the science and technology innovation board, which is not without risks.
With the arrival of science and technology innovation board, will A-share investment be worthless? Not exactly. At present, there are more than 3,700 stocks in A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen. Are these more than 3,700 listed companies worthless?
There are many valuable listed companies, but they have not been selected by ordinary investors. In other words, the arrival of the science and technology innovation board does not mean that the listed companies in the A-share market are worthless, valuable or valuable, which is not determined by the arrival of another market. Moreover, the value stocks of A shares will become more and more prominent because they can maintain steady growth all the year round.
What is important to invest in the stock market? Investors will say, "Of course they made money". By the same token, if it weren't for making money, which investor would enter the stock market? Of course not. However, do most investors make money in the stock market? More is not. There is a saying in the stock market that "seven losses, two draws and one gain", that is to say, 70% of investors are not earning, but losing.
So, can the arrival of science and technology innovation board benefit investors? I personally don't think so. To invest in the stock market, it is important to implement the "strategy". There is a saying that "strategy is greater than trend", that is to say, investing in the stock market, with a perfect strategy, can avoid many problems, but also avoid greater risks, and then achieve a stable profit state. Including stock selection, stock selection, execution, take profit, stop loss and so on. Therefore, investment should focus on "strategy".
Summary: With the arrival of the science and technology innovation board, I will personally invest in A shares. And I believe that the arrival of science and technology innovation board does not prove that A shares are worthless, but the risk of science and technology innovation board will be greater. Investment should focus on "strategy" rather than risk.
After the first batch of science and technology innovation board funds came out last week, it means that science and technology innovation board has entered the substantive implementation stage.
Judging from the popularity of fund sales in science and technology innovation board, science and technology innovation board is still very popular. It is said that the amount of each science and technology innovation board fund is only 654.38 billion yuan, but the number of subscriptions is far greater than 654.38 billion yuan. In other words, the 654.38 million yuan science and technology innovation board Fund you subscribed for may only get several thousand yuan in the end.
From this perspective, the science and technology innovation board still has a certain ability to absorb gold. What's more, there is a 20% increase in science and technology innovation board, which is more fun for hot money that likes speculation. Some hot money may go to science and technology innovation board. In this way, the theme of A shares may be more difficult to speculate. Because the funds of the science and technology innovation board have been misappropriated.
However, I also remind you not to expect too much from science and technology innovation board. Look at the unicorn of Hong Kong stocks. Most of them are similar to science and technology innovation boards. Due to the huge difference in valuation, the Hong Kong unicorn basically broke the dilemma when it went public. Don't expect too much from the Science and Technology Innovation Board Fund.
Relatively speaking, it is possible that A shares are still relatively safe, and at least one day it is 10%. On the one hand, the valuation of science and technology innovation board is difficult to determine, and institutions and funds are definitely chaotic. On the other hand, it is still difficult for ordinary investors to profit from the increase in volatility.
Therefore, after the scientific and technological innovation board comes out, I think we can still play A shares, but the turnover will shrink, so we must pay attention to the opportunities of high-quality blue-chip stocks. It is better to touch the theme stocks less.
First, cancel the stock index futures, which are harvesting tools and meaningless to a healthy stock market.
Second, fear the market. When the stock plummets, there is nothing you can do, so don't suppress your intervention when it skyrockets.
Thirdly, it is a long-term task to set up a specialized agency, make use of national resources and hire top domestic experts to deal with the malicious shorting of international capital in China stock market by Singapore A50. Often blow up some bears, so that some bears who maliciously short China pay a heavy price.
Fourth, gradually rectify listed companies, and do not allow any company to suddenly explode. If there is a loss or expected loss, it must be announced in advance and publicized step by step. For delisting companies, all responsible persons should be blacklisted, and they should not engage in any stock trading for life, and compensate stock buyers for their losses in the secondary market. Those who practise fraud shall be directly punished, and they shall not continue to participate in the company's operation or conduct financial transactions for life.
After science and technology innovation board came out, the author thinks that only A shares are suitable for retail investors, and science and technology innovation board is too risky for retail investors. Science and technology innovation board is much riskier than A shares. First of all, the requirements of listed companies are lower than the main board, and there is no profit requirement for technology companies to go public in the United States. It is because the American system is perfect and the legal system of the American securities market is sound. No company dares to pack fake products and go public in the United States. The laws of American securities market have very strict requirements for the major shareholders and intermediaries of listed companies. Any false information disclosure or financial fraud of listed companies will lead to the bankruptcy of listed companies and intermediaries.
It doesn't work in China, and the laws of China's securities market are not perfect, and there are too many human interferences, which will inevitably lead to the low quality of listed companies on the science and technology innovation board and the low quality of listed companies on the main board. Moreover, the scientific and technological innovation board is fraudulent in the name of science and technology, which is even more confusing. Therefore, the quality of listed companies in the science and technology innovation board is lower than that of the main board, and it is more risky to face the so-called low-quality concept technology listed companies.
Secondly, there is no price limit in the first five trading days after the listing of companies listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, and five trading days without price limit are enough to make retail investors lose their blood, which is hard for retail investors to bear. In addition, the trading day is up or down by plus or minus 20%, subject to the closing price. There are no restrictions on intraday trading, and retail investors will lose more by gambling with institutions in intraday trading.
Therefore, the author thinks that China's science and technology innovation board is not suitable for retail investors. Faced with the huge uncertain risks in science and technology innovation board, it is best for retail investors to observe for one year before considering it. Compared with the science and technology innovation board, the risk of the motherboard is lower. After the opening of science and technology innovation board, it is better for retail investors to participate in the A-share main board market if they want to invest in stocks. Don't blindly rush into the science and technology innovation board. Before science and technology innovation board changed the rules of the game in China stock market, the participation of retail investors was to give money to others. Science and technology innovation board is a wealth feast for institutions and has nothing to do with retail investors.
Science and technology innovation board is a part of A-shares. Buying stocks here is equivalent to playing A-shares, so any investor who participates in the science and technology innovation board is investing in A-shares, or speculating in A-shares.
Want to participate in science and technology innovation board, need to meet two conditions, one is the average daily capital of 500,000, and the other is 2 years of experience in stock trading. These two conditions can directly shut many people out. Many netizens like to call the science and technology innovation board "VIP stock trading" in the stock market, which means that the threshold for expressing the science and technology innovation board is too high for ordinary people to participate.
Undoubtedly, buying science and technology innovation board Fund is also a way to indirectly participate in science and technology innovation board. Science and technology innovation board is undoubtedly in line with the national strategy, but also has many technologies and unique advantages. Whether it is "really good" or "fake good", it will obviously heat up after the opening of the board, so as long as you get on the bus before others and get off at the right time, you can make a profit.
In fact, I personally think that the science and technology innovation board is a good opportunity to make money, but this opportunity is not as profitable as I thought, because many people participate indirectly through the science and technology innovation board fund, and the number is not small. Moreover, the popularity of the Science and Technology Innovation Board Fund is unimaginable.
Science and technology innovation board has absorbed hundreds of billions of funds in just a few days, but there is a prominent problem: the actual share allotment ratio is very low, and many citizens report that they have subscribed for 1 10,000 yuan, but the amount of successful subscription in the end is around 400 yuan. If you buy a science and technology innovation board fund in China, the subscription amount is 1 000 yuan, but the actual successful purchase amount is 408 yuan, so even if you want to participate, you can't transfer much money.
This is because wolves are more than meat. Everyone knew that the Science and Technology Innovation Board Foundation made money, so they rushed in. But the cake is fixed. There are many people, and everyone can get very little. Unless you spend more money on purchasing, you can get a bigger share and get more cakes.
This is why science and technology innovation board Fund does make money, but it doesn't make money as everyone thinks. For example, if you subscribe for 654.38+10,000 yuan, or the science and technology innovation board Fund, that is, if you buy a fund of 4,080 yuan, even if you have a yield of 20%, you can earn 8 16 yuan, so the science and technology innovation board Fund may make a lot of money, but everyone will get less money, not to mention 20%.
Do you still play A shares when technology comes out?
First of all, what do we take technology as? Gold mine? Do many people think that they can speculate without a daily limit in the first five days? My answer is no, the greater the hope, the greater the disappointment.
First of all, there is a threshold for retail participation, which limits small and medium-sized retail investors. Secondly, maybe you will think that big hot money can participate? Spicy? Here comes the problem. Offline placement inquiry is not open to retail investors. In other words, even if you have enough retail investors to purchase new shares online, what is the proportion of offline placement? I forgot that it was about 70% or more. In other words, there are very few shares placed online, and you can't get new shares. Even if you are a big hot money after the opening of the board, do you dare to buy it in the secondary market with real money? Your opponent is not a retail investor, but a monster. Even if you are Zhang's boss, even if you are Zhao Dage, your opponent will crush you mercilessly, understand? Retail investors can't get chips at all. The problem is that if everyone operates science and technology rationally, then many people's yearning for science and technology will disappear now, so it is actually better to lay out science and technology-related stocks on the main board, you know, an operation strategy.
What is the difference between science and technology innovation board and stock A-share market? It depends on which market is more real, effective and efficient in issuing, trading and pricing, so it is necessary to analyze the differences between them.
At present, the science and technology innovation board and the current stock market may have the following differences:
The difference between the initial public offering registration system.
Supposedly, the biggest difference between the registration system and the current audit system in the history of A shares is that there is no artificial administrative pricing with a price-earnings ratio of 23 times, and there is no threshold for issuing minimum profit standards. There is no artificial regulation and restriction on the distribution rhythm.
In fact, so far, perhaps because the science and technology innovation board is in the experimental or initial stage, there is still a certain profit threshold and the regulation expectation of the distribution rhythm, which is not the state of registration system.
Second, the similarities and differences between Kechuang's trading mechanism and the current market trading mechanism.
At present, in the science and technology innovation board, there is generally no fluctuation five days before listing, and the fluctuation range is 20% after five days. However, in the science and technology innovation board, like the current stock market, t0 is completely prohibited.
It should be said that the science and technology innovation board should be the same as the mature market mechanism, that is, the trading freedom is full, there should be no ups and downs, and it should be completely t0. However, based on managers' cognition and fear of complete freedom, the overall trading mechanism of A shares remains unchanged, but the interval and opening interval have changed slightly. The core of trading mechanism and trading freedom is that there is no restriction. Both the fluctuation range and t0 are ready-made mechanisms of international mainstream mature markets. But because management and investors have been locked in a deformed market for 30 years, everyone is used to the deformed market but afraid and unaccustomed to the normal market.
Third, the biggest difference between the registration system and the audit system.
The biggest difference should be the core of market supervision, not the authority of audit, but the supervision mechanism before and after the event. The biggest difference between the registration system and the audit system lies in the supervision of information disclosure, which must exceed the supervision of profit and loss of operating performance. The so-called information disclosure is the comprehensiveness, authenticity, integrity and fairness of information. At present, A-share supervision focuses on operating performance and profit and loss, which leads to a large number of long-term performance fraud incidents to meet the regulatory requirements, especially recent cases such as Kangmei and Shenzhen O-film Tech Co.,lt.
On the whole, the difference between the current stock market and the known science and technology innovation board is not complete and essential, but only in the degree of openness and freedom. For example, the difference between the speed limit of 50 kilometers and the speed limit of 80 kilometers, whether it is 50 kilometers or 80 kilometers, what is the difference between the happiness and freedom of driving? Judging from the companies registered and approved in science and technology innovation board at present, no matter from the management quality or core technology, they are not even as good as the relevant technology-based companies in the current stock market. On the whole, some emerging and large-scale innovative technology industries have become a huge wave of listing, and leading the entire capital market into technology will become the expectation of the golden age. On the contrary, many similar industries in the current stock market have switched to science and technology innovation board for listing, only because of the change in the place and method of listing. What can science and technology innovation board bring to investors?
The stock market is ruthless and there is love in the world.
Reducing the accuracy before the market opens won't help.
Author: Yang Dingtian
A tweet, no one stayed in the market, thousands of shares fell, and blood flowed. Is this still an investment market?
On May 6th, the A-share market ushered in the first trading day after the May Day holiday, but the market trend was not satisfactory. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a unilateral downward trend throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 5.58% in a single day and once falling below the 2900 mark in intraday trading. Growth enterprise market once fell more than 8% in intraday trading, and fell below the 1500 mark in late trading. There were only 100 floating bonus stocks in the two cities, and 1000 stocks closed down! According to estimates, due to the sharp drop, the total market value of A shares has shrunk by 3.8 trillion yuan.
Before the close of early trading, the RMB depreciated sharply, and American stock futures plummeted. There is no doubt that A shares opened sharply lower. Although Yang Ma rarely cut the deposit reserve ratio to save A shares before the market closed, the two markets closed sharply all day.
It is rare for the central bank to cut interest rates suddenly before the market! Two points are particularly noteworthy.
Just as the A-share market is about to open, the central bank suddenly released the news that RRR cut interest rates.
According to the official website, in order to implement the requirements of the the State Council executive meeting, the central bank established a policy framework to implement a lower deposit reserve ratio for small and medium-sized banks, and promoted the reduction of financing costs for small and micro enterprises, the People's Bank of China decided to implement a lower deposit reserve ratio concession for small and medium-sized banks focusing on the local area and serving counties from May 19. For rural commercial banks that only operate in county-level administrative areas or have branches in other county-level administrative areas, but the asset scale is less than 654.38+000 billion yuan, the deposit reserve ratio at the same level as that of rural credit cooperatives is implemented, which is currently 8%. About 1000 county-level rural commercial banks can enjoy this preferential policy, releasing long-term funds of about 280 billion yuan, all of which are used to issue loans to private and small and micro enterprises.
There are two special points in the announcement of the targeted reduction of the deposit reserve ratio: first, the RRR cut was announced in a rare early morning. Second, the rare RRR reduced production in May. Generally speaking, monetary policy operations like RRR interest rate cuts are often announced during non-trading hours, and are rarely released during morning trading hours. The "unexpected" arrival of the directional reduction of the deposit reserve ratio is probably due to the consideration of stabilizing market fluctuations. Unfortunately, the corresponding market is of no help.
At present, the adjustment speed of the market is accelerating, falling by 4 12 points in a short time, which is close to half of this wave of 848 points, making the adjustment a space for time exchange. Technically, if the market closes below 2884 for three consecutive days, it will effectively fall below this round of support line, that is, the market from 2440 to 3288 ends, and the short-term re-formed rise belongs to a rebound, and then. Today, the market has just fallen below 2884 and has not been confiscated, so it will take several days to confirm the nature of the adjustment.
At present, the short-term bullish sentiment in the market has reached a very low point. Compared with previous experience:
In this position, a team is likely to guide the market funds to rebound to reduce the current rate of decline!
Otherwise, according to the current market decline rate, the Shanghai Composite Index will break through 2000 points on 10.
There is no doubt that the possibility is extremely low!
Although the stock market trend is not satisfactory, investors are still frequent ~
Netizen a: I'm blue in the face! ! !
A netizen: I smashed the computer that fell below 2900 and took it to repair. The master said: There is something wrong with the motherboard. I said, "Is the gem all right?"
The master's eyes suddenly moistened. He held my hand tightly: "Comrade, I can wait for you. Where are you from? " ?
Me: "3280 mountainside troops, what about you?" "
"The master said in despair, 5 140 mountain advance team, next to the beggar leaned in and said," I'm from the top of 6 124 mountain!
A restaurant posted a thoughtful billboard on the Internet, which read, "The stock market is ruthless and there is love in the world. With the daily limit, you can get 6 yuan vouchers and use cash directly. " Yang Dingtian wants to know the specific location of the shop. ...
In fact, I just want to know, after the science and technology innovation board comes, are the bosses of the main board, small and medium-sized board and growth enterprise market still worth participating in? Will it be replaced by science and technology innovation board? In other words, where will the science and technology innovation board take A shares?
First of all, it is certain that the New Third Board will inevitably usher in a wave of hype. This can be predicted from the fiery scene of supporting fund-raising before. So it is inevitable that the boss is cold, but the stock market has always been a fickle place. Without news, news can be made. If it's not good, you can expect it to be good ... it's really nothing, and you can touch porcelain. That's how the high-tech demons in the north of the city came. So, don't worry about nobody playing.
Secondly, compared with the science and technology innovation board, the boss is the focus of all funds; This pattern will not change much in a year and a half, unless science and technology innovation board really issues new shares indiscriminately. However, due to limited funds, shrinking the front line is an inevitable choice. Therefore, the empty theme in the past, relying solely on hype varieties, will be abandoned by the market; The main force will pay more attention to performance, and the Matthew effect will become more and more obvious.
What's more, the high threshold of the science and technology innovation board itself is doomed. It's just a party for a few people, and the rest will go there. Don't seal the warehouse and sell the number, don't play at all?
Maybe you will play dead, maybe you will be furious, maybe you will be chilling, but the blood is always hot! After all, leeks are getting more and more prosperous!