I. Domestic and foreign resources
(A) the current situation of manganese resources in the world
According to the statistics of US Geological Survey, the recoverable reserves and basic reserves of manganese ore in the world in 2009 were 540 million tons (metal amount) and 5.2 billion tons (metal amount) respectively. Manganese ore resources in the world are mainly distributed in South Africa, Ukraine, Gabon, India, China, Australia, Brazil and Mexico (Figure 1). According to the current consumption level, the world manganese ore reserves can be used for global consumption for 56 years.
(2) Manganese resources in China
According to the 2009 National Bulletin on Mineral Resources and Reserves, by the end of 2009, there were 423 manganese ore areas in China, with a resource of 870 million tons, a resource of 685 million tons and a basic reserve of 654.38+86 million tons (including 90 million tons of recoverable reserves), mainly distributed in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Hunan Province, Guizhou Province, Yunnan Province and Yunnan Province. According to the formula of "usable life = (basic reserves ×0.85+ resources ×0.6)×0.8÷ output", China's manganese reserves can be mined for about 35.7 years.
Figure1Distribution of Manganese Ore Reserves in the World in 2009
Figure 2 Distribution of Manganese Ore Reserves in China in 2009
Second, the production situation at home and abroad
(I) Current situation of manganese ore production in the world
According to the estimation of US Geological Survey, the output of manganese ore in the world in 2009 was 9.6 million tons (metal quantity, the same below), which was 27.8% lower than the previous year, including 2.4 million tons in China, 6.5438+0.3 million tons in South Africa, 6.5438+0.6 million tons in Australia, 990,000 tons in Brazil, 960,000 tons in India and 8.6543+0 million tons in Gabon. In 2009, the world manganese ore (wet weight) output was 38.4 million tons, and the metal equivalent was 1. 1.32 million tons, which was 1.446548 compared with 455 1.000 tons in 2008.
Table1World Manganese Ore (Metal Quantity) Output from 2003 to 2009
Source: Abstract of Mineral Commodities, 20 10, 1.
Figure 3 1990-2009 World Manganese Ore and Manganese Alloy Output
(2) Production status of manganese ore in China.
In 2009, the output of manganese ore in China was 6.5438+0.273 million tons (the metal content was 2.278 million tons, and the average grade of ore was only 6.5438+0.9%), which was 2.565438+0% lower than that in 2008. However, the consumption of manganese ore remains high, and the consumption of finished ore is15.442 million tons, which is only 3% lower than that in 2008. Domestic mines can only meet the consumption demand of 34.5%. In 2009, China imported 9610.8 million tons of finished manganese ore, an increase of 27% over 2008, and its dependence on foreign countries has reached 65.5% (Figure 4).
Figure 4 1990-2009 China Manganese Mine Output and Consumption
Third, the domestic and international consumption situation
(1) Consumption of manganese ore in the world
Manganese is mainly used in iron and steel industry. Manganese plays an important role in sulfur fixation, deoxidation and reduction, and is easy to form alloys. 90% of manganese consumed by iron and steel industry is used in the form of ferroalloy. In 2009, the world average consumption of ferromanganese per ton of steel was 65,438+00 kg. Due to the different technical level, iron ore grade and steel product type, the consumption of ferromanganese per ton of steel in different countries is also different. The relationship between manganese ore consumption and steel output is basically stable. In 2009, the world consumption of manganese ore was12197,000 tons (metal quantity), which was 8% lower than that in 2008 (Table 2). The consumption of manganese in the world is closely related to its steel output. According to the steel output, the main consuming countries and regions of manganese in the world are China, the United States, Japan, the European Union, South Korea, India, Russia, Ukraine and other major steel-producing countries and regions.
Table 2 Balance of supply and demand of manganese ore in the world in 2003-2009 Unit: 10,000 tons.
Source: IMnI, Annual Review, 2003-2009.
(B) Manganese consumption in China
Consumption composition of manganese ore in China: Si-Mn accounts for 46%, and medium-low carbon ferromanganese (References. FeMn) accounts for 7%, high carbon ferromanganese (HCFeMn) accounts for 22%, manganese sulfide (MnS) accounts for 1%, electrolytic manganese dioxide (EMD) accounts for 2%, and electrolytic manganese metal (EMM) accounts for 22%.
With the development of China's iron and steel industry and the increase in the export of manganese products, the consumption of manganese ore is gradually increasing, and the proportion of imported ore is increasing. In 2009, the apparent consumption of finished manganese ore was 654.38+054.42 million tons, an increase of 654.38+00.2% over the previous year.
Four. Domestic and international trade situation
(A) the status quo of international manganese ore trade
In the past 20 years, the world trade volume of manganese ore has increased slightly, and the trade scale has basically remained at about 35% of the annual output. The world trade volume of manganese ore in 2009 is estimated to be17.86 million tons, an increase of 18.2% over the previous year. Among them, the main exporting countries are South Africa, Australia, Brazil, Gabon, Ghana, India and other major manganese producers (Table 3), while China, Japan, the United States, the European Union and other major steel producers and regions are major importers and regions of manganese ore (Table 4).
Table 3 Trade situation of main exporters of manganese ore (concentrate) in the world in recent years
Table 4 Trade situation of main importers of manganese ore (concentrate) in the world in recent years
In 2008, Australia exported 4.002 million tons of manganese ore, including 2.306 million tons to China (accounting for 57.6% of Australia's total exports in that year), 354,000 tons to Japan, 377,000 tons to South Korea, 320,000 tons to India, 3 1.9 million tons to Ukraine and 6.5438+0.34 million tons to the United States.
In 2008, the import of manganese ore in Ukraine was 2.003 million tons, an increase of 506.5438+0 million tons compared with 2007, with an increase of 33.4%. Ukraine has become the second largest importer of manganese ore in the world after China.
(2) Domestic import and export trade of manganese ore
Due to the lack of high-grade and high-quality manganese ore, a large number of manganese ores imported from China every year are mostly medium-grade and other low-grade ores, and the grade of manganese is 44% ~ 45%. According to customs statistics, in 2009, China imported 96 1.8 million tons of manganese ore, an increase of 27% over 2008. The value was $6543.8+$77 million, a decrease of 48.9% compared with 2008; The average price is 184 USD/ton, which is 59.8% lower than that in 2008. Imports mainly came from Australia, South Africa, Gabon and Brazil, which together accounted for 73.7% of the total imports of manganese ore in China during the same period (Table 5).
Table 5 Import situation of manganese ore in China in recent years
Source: General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, China Customs Statistical Yearbook, 2005 ~ 2008; General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China Monthly Report on Customs Statistics in 2009 (12)
20101~ July, China imported 6.047 million tons of manganese ore, valued at10.45 billion US dollars, with an average price of 240 US dollars/ton, which was 30.4% higher than the average price in 2009.
Five, manganese ore price trend analysis
After nearly crazy linear increase in 2007 and the first half of 2008, the price of imported manganese ore in China began to decrease in August 2008, and fell sharply to $9/(ton) in 165438+ 10, and further fell to $3.5/(ton) in June-July 2009. In 2009,
Table 6 BHP Billiton 2009 ~ 20 10 China Manganese Mine Quotation Unit: USD/(ton-degree) (CIF).
In 2009, the four major manganese ore suppliers in the world adopted the strategy of limiting production and ensuring price to deal with the market, and have achieved certain results. After BHP Billiton lowered the price of manganese ore in China to USD 3.5/(ton) in May-June and July-August, 2009, the delivery price in September rose to USD 4.5/(ton) to USD 5.5/(ton), and the delivery price in June of 65438+ 10 was USD 6.5/.
Conclusion of intransitive verbs
The supply of manganese ore in the world is tightening, and the substantial increase of steel output is the driving force for the growth of manganese consumption. Affected by the financial crisis, the world manganese mine output in 2009 decreased by 15.6% compared with the previous year, and the gap between supply and demand was 877,000 tons (metal quantity). In the past 20 years, the world trade volume of manganese ore has increased slightly, and the trade scale has basically remained at about 35% of the annual output. The main exporting countries are still rich in manganese resources.
After years of continuous growth, the output of raw manganese ore in China decreased for the first time in 2009, and the grade of raw manganese ore decreased year by year. The gap between domestic supply and demand continues to widen, with the import rate of manganese ore soaring by 27% and the dependence on imports reaching 65.5%. Affected by the global financial crisis, the price of manganese ore in the international market has fallen sharply. In 2009, the average import price of manganese ore in China decreased by 59.8% compared with 2008.
(Hu)