Based on the average crude oil price of11.88 USD, the corresponding domestic retail price of gasoline and diesel is raised by 360 yuan/ton, equivalent to 0.26-0.3 yuan/liter.
Since the beginning of this year, the domestic gasoline price has increased by 1930 yuan/ton, and the diesel price has increased by 1855 yuan/ton.
At present, the domestic wholesale and retail prices of refined oil products continue to maintain their upward expectations on May 30, but there is an opportunity for oil prices to be lowered in June.
1, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners will continue to increase production in June.
2. There is international concern about the economic recession.
3. Hungary and the European Union have a dispute over the plan to ban Russian oil imports.
4. The geographical relationship has eased, and Russia has allowed Ukrainian wheat to be exported by sea, which is helpful for Russian oil exports.
However, some experts believe that before the arrival of major changes, the international crude oil price has a high probability of temporarily maintaining a high and strong shock situation.
Early warning of pig price decline in June
In May, the price of live pigs was reluctant to sell at the breeding end, the slaughter of live pigs slowed down, and the reserve meat was stimulated, ushered in a half-month rising cycle.
However, the price of pigs has fallen recently. On May 28th, pig prices in Hubei, Hunan, Shanxi, Hebei, Jilin and Shaanxi all fell, but the decline was not significant, ranging from 0.05-0. 1 yuan.
After entering June, the price of pigs may fall further.
The specific logic of price reduction includes the following aspects:
1. After the pig price rises, the profit of frozen meat in slaughter enterprises is considerable, which has an impact on the pig price.
2. The pig price rises to the cost line, and the enthusiasm of farmers may increase.
3. The pig production capacity is still surplus.
4. Pork consumption has not returned to normal level.
Although the industry generally believes that the pig price will rise above the cost line in the second half of the year, or even return to the normal profit level, it will take time until July.
In June, the high probability entered a downward state after rising continuously in May. How much will it fall? On the one hand, it depends on how determined farmers are, and on the other hand, it depends on how much terminal pork consumption can be restored.
The price of urea has decreased, but the price of compound fertilizer is still rising.
Recently, the domestic urea market has been loosened, including the price of urea in Shandong, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Guangxi and other regions falling by 20-40 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream ex-factory price of urea in Shandong is 3 180-3220 yuan/ton, the ex-factory price of small and medium-sized particles in Liaoning is 3220-3250 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of small and medium-sized particles in Inner Mongolia is 3050-3280 yuan/ton.
The main reasons for the decline in urea prices are as follows: 1, the spring ploughing season has passed, and the demand for urea in agriculture has turned weak.
2. The industrial operating rate decreased, and the demand for urea weakened.
3, urea factory orders decreased, and enterprises reduced prices to attract orders.
4. The news of exporting urea to Pakistan affects the domestic urea price.
Although the price of urea has been lowered at present, the market inventory is low, and there is no basis for the continuous decline of urea.
The price of compound fertilizer continues to rise by about 100- 150 yuan/ton. After adjustment, the quoted price of compound fertilizer is 45% chlorine (3 15) and 14: 65 at 3750-4 100 yuan/ton. Wheat fertilizer with 45% nitrogen content leaves the factory at 3850-4000 yuan/ton.
When the price of urea fell, the price of compound fertilizer still rose, mainly because of the high cost pressure of compound fertilizer and the continuous fermentation due to the tight supply of phosphate rock, which led to the price increase of monoammonium sulfate and diammonium phosphate in the market, and the quotation of monoammonium phosphate rose by 50- 100 yuan/ton, which led to the high price consolidation of diammonium phosphate.
The market price fluctuation of potassium chloride is limited, but in terms of potassium sulfate, SDIC- Korea is out of stock and will enter the maintenance period in June, so China potash fertilizer itself has a high degree of external dependence. The shutdown of price Korea will further reduce the domestic potash production, and potash is likely to run at a high price.
With the continuous rise of raw material prices, it is expected that the price of compound fertilizer will continue to rise and adjust.