On Monday (165438+1October 2 1), data from the People's Bank of China showed that the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was 6.8985 yuan, a record low of nearly eight and a half years. The central parity has been adjusted for the twelfth consecutive day, approaching the 6.9 yuan Pass. According to Huitong analysis. Com, since Trump was elected president of the United States, the RMB has not only rapidly dropped to 6.83 yuan, which was a long-term sideways position during the financial crisis in 2008-2009, but also accelerated to weaken, reaching the lowest level since June 2008 16. During this period, the offshore RMB fell by more than 1% against the US dollar, and the onshore RMB fell by 1.63.

The main reason for the recent decline of RMB is the suppression of a strong dollar. Fx678 analysis shows that the US dollar index has now risen above the 10 1 mark. Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen also said recently that if the future data further shows that it is closer to the Fed's goal, it may be appropriate to raise interest rates relatively quickly, and maintaining interest rates unchanged may stimulate excessive risk appetite. This remark prompted the Fed to raise interest rates this year. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange FEDWATCH tool shows that the US federal funds rate futures price implies that traders expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 65,438+in February this year, which is as high as 95%.

At present, the market's expectation of the recent trend of the RMB has also warmed up. Huitong Quoted a recent survey by Bloomberg. Among the 16 analysts and traders interviewed, 14 think that the exchange rate of the US dollar against RMB will rise to 7 in the first half of next year. Some foreign institutional analysts said, "7 is an important psychological point. If the exchange rate level exceeds this point this year, it will generate downward pressure, which will strengthen itself. "