Is it more cost-effective for people who intend to borrow money to consider average capital or equal principal and interest?

And those who have already bought a house, have you found that from the second half of 20 12, your monthly mortgage deduction amount is getting less and less?

You should pay attention to the loan or not, what kind of loan and interest!

Interbank lending rates rose collectively.

The central bank continued its net withdrawal. Since the interest rate cut in June, 2065438+2002, the benchmark interest rate for five-year loans has dropped from 7.05% to 4.9% now, with a drop rate as high as 30%. In other words, in theory, the repayment amount last month also decreased by 30% (different repayment methods and bank policies will be slightly different).

Adjustment of benchmark interest rate for loans over five years (unit:%) Source: China People's Bank.

Is it possible for the monthly supply to continue to decline? In other words, is it possible to continue to lower interest rates?

This problem is not only the concern of house slaves, but also the concern of all those who need to borrow money, because it is directly related to how much interest they need to pay in the future.

To find the answer, we need to pay attention to the following iconic phenomenon sweeping the world, which is also very obvious in China. Understanding this phenomenon is very helpful for your future financial planning.

The soaring interest rate of national debt and the soaring interest rate of American national debt are things that the whole world is struggling with recently.

What does it have to do with mortgage and loan?

National debt-the state borrows money from the whole society. The interest rate level of national debt reflects the cost of borrowing money from the state. If the cost of borrowing money from the state is high, it means that the cost of borrowing money from others will also become high. Is your credit higher than that of the country? Moreover, there is a huge market for national debt, which is continuously traded every day, so the change of national debt interest rate is regarded as the leading indicator of the future trend of all other interest rates.

Among all kinds of national debt in the United States (5 years, 10 years, 20 years, 30 years, etc. ), 10 national debt is recognized as the most representative. However, from 1 1, the interest rate curve of 10-year US Treasury bonds suddenly became steep, and this speed has continued to this day.

Local time:165438+1October 4 ~28, the yield chart of 0/0-year treasury bonds in the United States (data source: US Treasury).

The yield of US Treasury bonds has soared because investors are selling a lot of US Treasury bonds-which means that the price of US Treasury bonds has fallen and the yield (that is, the yield) has risen.

In this regard, the mainstream view of the market believes that the strong short-selling power of bonds reflects the strong expectation of the market for economic improvement. Because they need to borrow money from low-yield government bonds and invest in other higher-yield markets, after all, the yield of government bonds is the lowest (because it has the lowest risk).

In China market, the yield of 1 10-year treasury bonds was only 2.743% on 10, but it was as high as 2.92 1% on June 8. Treasury bond futures are also reflected. 10-year treasury bond futures main contract T 16 12 fell continuously from110/52 yuan quoted on October 4th to1.

China 10-year bond yield (data source: wind, China bond information network)

Do you still remember the scene of aunts and uncles queuing up for national debt all night in the first half of the year? At that time, because there were too few varieties to invest, the national debt with higher deposit interest rate than the bank became a hot commodity, but now, the market situation of national debt has completely changed, and it has become a variety sold by investors recently.

In the first half of this year, uncles and aunts queued up all night to grab the national debt.

The era of borrowing money at low interest rates is coming to an end. The trend of the world's major economies 10-year bonds is so synchronized, Xu Yang, senior analyst of major assets of Guo Jin Securities, told national business daily.

Trump's victory and his economic policy are only one aspect of the rise in the interest rate of national debt, and another reason may be more direct and important. At present, the market is most concerned about the Fed's interest rate hike-the higher the interest rate hike is expected, the higher the interest rate of government bonds will tend to be.

Some international financial experts said that Japan is the initiator of global quantitative easing. Under its leadership, the quantitative easing tool of global monetary policy has been applied to the extreme. At the same time, the price policy, that is, the interest rate policy, has reached its limit, and there is almost no room for monetary easing. In other words, the interest rate has reached the point where it can no longer be lowered, and it may only be the same as it is now, or even rise in the future.

It is widely believed that the European Central Bank will further extend the easing policy in the short term, but ECB officials have recently expressed the view that interest rates may be close to bottoming out.

The Bank of China's monetary policy implementation report in the third quarter also pointed out that considering that reserve instruments may have a balance sheet effect and have strong signal significance, the liquidity gap caused by the decline in foreign exchange holdings is more restricted, and more open market operations and medium-term lending instruments are used to provide liquidity. This statement means that the possibility of further reduction of RRR is decreasing.

The market has clearly felt the shortage of funds. Wind data shows that on June 29th, 165438+Shibor (reflecting the inter-bank lending rate) rose across the board again; 5-year and 10-year treasury bond futures both recorded the biggest one-day declines in contract history, among which 10-year treasury bond futures main contract T 1703 closed down by more than 0.8 1% to 98.93 yuan.

165438+1overnight trend of shibor since October 9th Source: shibor official website.

Deng Haiqing, the global chief economist of Kyushu Securities, made it clear in an interview with the reporter of National Business Daily that the "global liquidity turning point" has arrived for the following four reasons:

1, global inflation has shown an obvious upward trend in recent months;

2. Trump's New Deal may change global inflation expectations;

3. Monetary easing leads to a global asset price bubble, and the potential risk of continued easing is huge;

4. The resumption of the Fed's interest rate hike cycle is a foregone conclusion. European and Japanese central banks switched from cutting interest rates to keeping interest rates unchanged, and the Bank of China tightened interest rates in the money market.

Image source: Oriental IC

Now it seems that global central banks will not be as rampant as before, which means that the cost of borrowing money will rise in the future.

If you are going to borrow money and leverage, then you need to think twice at this time, because the interest you pay now does not represent the future interest.

Whether to borrow or not, how to borrow, buying a house is a big deal, you have to think it over.

(The above answers were published on 2016-12-12. Please refer to the actual situation for the current purchase policy. )

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