1. The world economy is still recovering from the crisis. 20 14 the world economy is still in the process of deep adjustment after the international financial crisis, and the deep-seated and structural problems of various countries have not yet been solved. For example, structural adjustment is far from in place, the aging population is intensifying, new economic growth points are still gestating, and endogenous growth momentum is insufficient, which all restrict economic development.
2. Insufficient global demand. On the one hand, global import demand growth is weak. In 20 12-20 13, the growth rate of global trade volume was lower than the economic growth rate for two consecutive years, and in 20 14, the growth rate of trade volume was only 0.8 percentage point faster than the GDP growth rate, which was in sharp contrast with the growth rate of trade volume 1 times in the five years before the international financial crisis. On the other hand, in the case of sluggish domestic demand, all countries are committed to expanding exports, the temptation of competitive currency depreciation is increasing, and international competition tends to be fierce. At the same time, global protectionism is on the rise, and regional trade liberalization may replace global trade liberalization.
3. The differentiation of monetary policies in various economies has intensified. After the international financial crisis in 2008, the effectiveness of policy coordination of international organizations is not obvious, especially in maintaining financial stability, restoring financial order and maintaining economic growth. At the G20 Summit held in October 20 14, 165438 10, all parties promised to increase the overall GDP of G20 by more than 2% based on the current forecast level in the next five years. But overall, the specific implementation effect is not optimistic, and the reforms advocated by international economic organizations such as IMF and World Bank have been delayed. There are serious differences in monetary policy measures among countries. The United States completely withdrew from quantitative easing in June 20 14. The euro zone and Japan are still increasing their easing policies after the middle of the year; Russia and Brazil raised interest rates six times and five times respectively, and the cumulative rate of interest rate increase reached 1 150 and 125 basis points. Romania and South Korea cut interest rates three times and twice respectively, with a cumulative rate cut of 100 and 50 basis points.
4. The international financial market is in turmoil again. After a wave of shocks at the beginning of 20 14, the international financial market has been in a relatively stable state. In the second half of the year, especially in the fourth quarter, there were great fluctuations, involving the stock market, foreign exchange market and other fields.
1), the stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (20 14) in the United States hit record highs, and the major European stock markets fluctuated sharply in the second half of the year, and the overall trend was flat throughout the year. The Japanese stock market went out of a wave of rising prices in the second half of 20 14. Emerging markets, on the other hand, showed a sharp fluctuation trend, with 20 14 rising all the way from the beginning of February to the beginning of September, and falling sharply in the fourth quarter, exceeding 12%, which led to the loss of the achievements in the first half of the year.
2) Foreign exchange market. The dollar strengthened, while the euro and yen weakened. The US dollar index 20 14 rose more than 13% in the second half of the year. Affected by the Ukrainian crisis, the Russian ruble depreciated by more than 73% in the whole year, and nearly 43% in the fourth quarter of 2065438+2004 alone. The Ukrainian Grivner depreciated by nearly 48% in the whole year. Affected by economic weakness and falling international commodity prices, major Latin American countries have become the hardest hit areas for currency depreciation. The Argentine peso depreciated by nearly 23%, the Brazilian real by nearly 14%, and the Mexican peso by more than 1 1%.
The price of bulk commodities, especially crude oil, has fallen sharply in the international market.
1), commodity prices fell for three consecutive years. According to the statistics of the World Bank, in 20 14, the prices of energy and non-energy decreased by 7.2% and 4.6% respectively over the previous year, both of which decreased for three consecutive years. Among them, the prices of agricultural products decreased by 3.4%, fertilizers decreased by 1 1.6%, and metals and minerals decreased by 6.6%. In 20 14, the average FAO food price index was 202 points, down 3.7% from the previous year; 65438+February decreased by 8.5% year-on-year. Among them, the grain price dropped the most, and the annual average grain price index was 192 points, down 12.5% from the previous year. The global food supply is sufficient. In 20 14/ 15, the world grain output is expected to hit another record, reaching 2.532 billion tons, 7 million tons more than the original record in 20 13/ 14, with an increase of 0.3%, which is the growth for two consecutive years.
2) Crude oil prices plummeted. Affected by the increase in global crude oil supply, the slowdown in crude oil demand growth, the continuous appreciation of the US dollar, and the weakening of speculative demand, global crude oil prices plummeted. In 20 14, the crude oil price of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries was 96.2 USD/barrel, down 9.2% from the previous year. The price of light crude oil in new york futures market was 93 USD/barrel, down by 3.6% over the previous year, and both of them fell for two consecutive years. 2065438+June 2, 2005, 65438+1October 65438, the crude oil price of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries was the lowest since the international financial crisis, which was 60.6% lower than the highest of 2065438+20 10.48.
The decline in crude oil prices has a greater impact on the world economy: First, it has a positive pull on the world economy. According to the calculation of the World Bank, every 30% drop in oil prices will boost the global economic growth by 0.5%; Second, it has a great negative impact on oil exporting countries. Every time the price of crude oil falls by 10%, its GDP growth rate will drop by 0.8-2.5 percentage points, and it will also lead to negative effects such as fiscal revenue decline, currency depreciation and capital outflow. The third is to lower the CPI increase and increase the risk of deflation in some economies. According to analysis, for every 30% drop in oil prices, the global CPI will drop by 0.4-0.9 percentage points.
6. Non-economic factors such as geopolitics. The worsening geopolitical situation, such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the situation in the Middle East, on the one hand caused regional instability and led to the withdrawal of international investment and capital from the region; On the other hand, the economic sanctions and counter-sanctions imposed by the West and Russia have also suppressed investors' confidence, suppressed their respective import demand and mutual trade, and made the unstable economies of Europe and Russia worse. In 20 14, the spread of Ebola epidemic also caused losses to transportation, tourism and other industries in related areas.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics