With the continuous decline of pig price after the holiday, the pig price "bottomed out" for the second time, only one step away from the "reserve price" formed before.
Domestic refined oil prices will usher in a new round of adjustment on February 3. According to the current international oil price, the oil price will rise for the second time in 2023.
Recently, the price of eggs has been rising one after another, but I think the price of eggs is about to fall.
Corn continues to fall.
For the post-holiday corn industry, it is generally optimistic, and the opening price of corn has not disappointed everyone. At the opening of the market, it ushered in "two consecutive rises", but soon the daily limit, the decline rate continued to increase, and the scope of decline was also expanding.
Weifang Xuan Ying, Weifang Ecology and Shouguang Golden Corn were lowered by 1 point, Shandong Tian Li Pharmaceutical was lowered by 1.2 point, Binzhou Wang Xi, Binzhou Jinhui and Chengwu Dida were lowered by 0.3 point, and Linqing Golden Corn was lowered by 0.8 point.
Ningjin Yufeng decreased 1 minute, Guangyu starch and Hebei Derui decreased by 0.5 minute.
After the recent downward adjustment, the current corn prices in Shandong are 1.405- 1.55 yuan, 1.39- 1.5 1 yuan in North China and1.07-/kloc in Northeast China.
One of the reasons for the decline in corn prices is that the current price of live pigs is low, and the industry is not optimistic about the subsequent demand for corn.
The second reason is that the number of deep processing enterprises before the holiday is relatively large, and the inventory is relatively abundant, while the current corn price is still at a high level, and the acceptance of enterprises is not high.
The third reason is that the surplus vehicles of deep processing enterprises in Shandong Province have been around 500 in the recent morning, which is at a high level, and enterprises do not need to raise prices to promote quantity.
But you don't need to worry too much. Although it is difficult for corn prices to rise sharply in a short period of time, the bottom support is still relatively strong.
1. After the epidemic is stabilized, life will return to normal and the demand for corn will increase.
2. Affected by the high cost of planting, grass-roots farmers are reluctant to sell, which can be seen from the fact that the price drop after the year did not cause panic.
Traders also choose to go with the collection and short-term operation, which will help the corn market and support the price.
3. Policy acquisition or support is still to expand soybean production this year. On the basis of completing the established soybean target, it is very important to ensure corn production and maintain corn prices and farmers' profits, so the policy level will also support corn prices.
Pig price "double dip"
With the recent continuous decline in the price of live pigs, the price of live pigs has fallen to 14.54 yuan/kg, only one step away from the previous lowest point 14.38 yuan/kg, and the price of live pigs has formed a "double dip" trend.
The pig price continues to fall deeply, and the basic logic is as follows:
1, pork consumption is at a low point after the holiday. Everyone just came back from vacation and just ate big fish and big meat. The tourism and catering industries are relatively depressed.
2. The breeding end "raises pigs for the New Year", the pig price has not risen, and the confidence of the breeding end has been frustrated, which may lead to centralized listing.
3. The price of pigs continued to be low, and the sow elimination mode was started at the breeding end, and the supply of pigs was at a high level.
Recently, the temperature has dropped greatly, and some areas are unstable, so many pig farms are forced to sell pigs.
There is no obvious increase in the pig market, and the short-term pig price will still be dominated by decline.
The breeding end should prepare for the "deep drop" of pig prices in advance.
Oil prices may rise sharply.
Recently, international crude oil prices have continued to fall, Brent crude oil futures prices and American crude oil futures prices are in a state of decline, and this week's decline even exceeded 3%.
Domestically, the domestic crude oil futures contract of Shanghai International Energy Exchange Center also fell by 2.6 1%, and the domestic fuel oil futures contract of the previous period fell by 1.23%.
But this can't change the fact that domestic oil prices are about to skyrocket, because domestic refined oil prices are based on the comprehensive change rate of international crude oil prices during the whole adjustment period. This oil price adjustment cycle spans the Spring Festival holiday, so it takes the longest time. Because the international crude oil price has soared for two weeks in a row, the comprehensive rate of change of the international crude oil price is still rising. In this domestic oil price adjustment cycle, the international oil price rose by nearly 6% on average compared with the previous cycle.
It is estimated that when the domestic refined oil price adjustment window opens at 24: 00 on February 3rd, the domestic oil price will be raised by 240 yuan/ton, equivalent to 0. 18-0.22 yuan.
At present, the domestic price of No.92 gasoline is basically around 7.6 yuan, and the price of No.95 gasoline is basically around 8. 1 yuan. After rising by about 0.2 yuan, the price of No.92 gasoline will rise to 7.8 yuan, and the price of No.95 gasoline will rise to 8.3 yuan.
The price of eggs will fall.
In recent days, the price of eggs in the market has been rising. The price of eggs in Beijing rose to 20 1 yuan /44 kg, Tianjin rose to 194 yuan /45 kg, Shanghai rose to 124 yuan /27.5 kg, Heilongjiang rose to 4.4 yuan/kg and Anhui rose to 4.7 yuan/kg.
One of the reasons for the increase in egg prices after the holiday is that the production capacity of laying hens is damaged and the supply of eggs is tight.
Secondly, due to the large inventory consumption of traders during the Spring Festival, traders have replenishment needs.
The third reason is that the feed price is high, the cost of laying hens is high, and the price of eggs forms the bottom support.
However, insiders believe that the price of eggs may fall, and the basic logic is as follows:
1. During the festival, the purchase and sale of eggs stopped, and there was a backlog of eggs at the breeding end.
2. The decline in pig prices will drive down the price of pork and seize the egg consumption market.
3. Holidays themselves are the off-season of egg consumption, and the daily consumption of residents is mainly eggs hoarded at home.