First, domestic demand is strong,
Second, the prices of agricultural products in the international market are low.
Han Yijun, a professor at China Agricultural University, also believes that one of the reasons for the rapid growth of grain imports is the gradual widening of the price gap at home and abroad. At present, the international FOB wheat market price is about 10% after adding various fees.
Reuters reported that the purchasing and storage price of China government is the core factor that dominates the domestic grain price, and the price difference between domestic and foreign countries has a long history. The report mentioned Shi Yan, deputy director of Xinhu Futures Research Institute:
The existence of the purchasing and storage system has raised the price of (domestic) cereals, but some cereals can be replaced ... The import of cereals such as sorghum and barley without import quota restrictions has really sprung up recently.
Shi Yan believes that it is an exaggeration to link the surge in food imports with concerns about food security. At present, China government has abundant grain stocks. The short-term problem that the government is considering now may not be food security, but how to let the market digest the reserves.
At the end of July last year, the report of China Business News also quoted the data of the China Grain Storage Report, saying that China Grain Storage bought nearly 90 million tons of grain the year before, but a large number of grain purchased by the market could not be sold because of the high price, and the grain processing enterprises lacked interest, so they could only pile up in warehouses, and the storage capacity of China Grain Storage was tight.
China securities journal quoted Fan Jingya, an analyst of COFCO Futures, as saying that the sharp increase in staple food imports is due to the "food shortage" caused by the imbalance between supply and demand:
At present, China is fully capable of self-sufficiency in staple food. If we add a huge amount of purchasing and storage, the overall supply will be relatively loose, and the sharp increase in staple food imports is not due to the imbalance of domestic supply and demand structure.
From a series of data analysis, the net import quantity of staple food in China is actually very limited, which does not mean that there is a' food shortage' in China.
China securities journal's report also mentioned that comparing the data of grain import quota published by the National Development and Reform Commission, it can be found that even though the import volume has increased, it still failed to reach the total quota. Even the total quota accounts for less than 8% of the output of various staple foods. Therefore, imported grain is not enough to change the overall balance pattern of supply and demand in China grain market.
Although the quantity is limited, the impact of imported grain on China's grain policy should not be underestimated. With the storage and storage of wheat reaching a record level, the problem of insufficient capacity of the national treasury is further revealed. The high quality and low price of imported grain will force China to reform its agricultural protection policy to some extent.
The increase in imports has also strengthened the linkage of food prices at home and abroad. Chai Ning, a food network in China, believes that the challenge of soaring international food prices to domestic prices and food security cannot be ignored.
In addition, with the frequent occurrence of extreme climate in the world, the food crisis that happened only once in the past decade has a more and more obvious normalization trend.
Last summer, Henan, Anhui and other 12 provinces experienced different degrees of drought, and the drought in some major grain producing areas is more likely to aggravate China's grain import pressure. Although this year's summer grain yield is high, after all, autumn grain output accounts for 70% of the annual grain output.
Han Yijun believes that China should attach great importance to the food crisis or soaring food prices, and insist on ensuring food security based on domestic production.