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1. PVC futures market analysis
Pvc futures are futures varieties with PVC as the subject matter. PVC, that is, polyvinyl chloride, is a thermoplastic resin. It is also called four basic building materials with steel, wood and cement, and five general-purpose resins with PP, PE, ABS and PS, which is the product with the largest consumption of organochlorine in chlor-alkali industry.
Market analysis development cycle Judging from the long-term fluctuation of PVC market, it should take about 3-4 years to complete a cycle. From 1993 to now, the PVC market has completed five ups and downs. 1994 PVC has the highest market price and the most prosperous industrial development. Then the market fell rapidly, reaching a low point at 1996, and the business was in trouble. After that, a new round of prosperity began, reaching the second high point in the second half of 1997 and the historical low point in 1999. In the last two cycles of PVC, a similar market has been deduced. From the end of 2005 to the beginning of 2006, after the market fell to a low point, it has been in an upward channel, reaching a peak in the first half of 2008, and the market reversed in the second half of 2008, reaching a historical low at the end of 2008. Supported by cost, the price rebounded slightly.
2. At present, China's PVC industry is in a mature stage and has entered an era of high cost support. The life cycle of an industry includes four stages: infancy, growth, maturity and decline.
1. According to the above cycle analysis, the PVC industry in China is currently in a mature stage. From 2003 to 2005, the industry made great progress, the demand increased rapidly, the technology was gradually finalized, and the profits of production enterprises were high. Driven by profits, the number of manufacturers and suppliers will inevitably increase, and the products will gradually develop in the direction of diversification, high quality and low price, with intensified competition and increasingly saturated market demand. Manufacturers must rely on extra production, improve production technology, reduce costs and develop new products to gain competitive advantage. The buyer's market is formed, the profitability of the industry is reduced, the development of new products and new uses of products is more difficult, and the entry threshold of the industry is improved. This is a typical feature of industrial maturity.
2. Fluctuation law: In the medium and long term, a PVC market price cycle is completed every four years or so, and the price shows a three-stage trend: it first rises slowly and continuously, reaches the cycle high point and then quickly reaches the cycle low point, then rebounds slightly and remains depressed until the next cycle rises. The approximate ratio of the duration of the three stages is 5: 1: 2. In the short term, the price cycle of the past four years is expressed by daily price data, and it is found that the daily price fluctuation trend basically follows the long-term price trend, and rarely goes out of multiple small fluctuation cycles on its own. Short-term price follows long-term price fluctuation, which is very obvious. Investors and hedgers are easy to make balanced price forecasting judgments, thus increasing the success rate.
3. Correlation analysis: PVC and LLDPE belong to five series of synthetic resins, so it is necessary to analyze the price correlation between PVC and other synthetic resins. As can be seen from the historical data, the price correlation between PP and PE is very good, and the trend between them is very consistent, mainly because their raw materials are the same. In the process of refining refined oil from crude oil, ethylene and propylene will be produced at the same time, which are the main raw materials of polyethylene and polypropylene respectively. 1 ton of polyethylene needs about 1 ton of ethylene, and the quantitative relationship between polypropylene and propylene is also 1: 1, so their values are basically the same, so the market prices are basically the same. So we only need to analyze the price correlation between PVC and PE or PP.