Why are retail investors more likely to lose money in the futures market?
(The "retail investors" referred to in this article do not refer to futures investors with small capital, and investors with large capital also belong to this category if they do not have a set of objective trading principles. As we all know, the venture capital market (here mainly refers to the stock market and futures market) is a battlefield without smoke. Participating in futures investment is like fighting on the battlefield. The final outcome of the battle is the survival of the fittest, the strong will remain strong and the weak will remain weak. The growth experience of western market economy countries shows that the national economy will move towards collectivization and monopoly, that is, the main business of major industries will be controlled by many large groups, which is called "oligopoly" in economics. This development has promoted the efficiency of the market economy itself, the effective use of capital and the rationalization of resource allocation. The development of futures industry is no exception. Take the United States as an example At present, the space for retail investors to survive in the futures market is getting smaller and smaller, and it is difficult to develop. This is mainly because futures investment has evolved into a high-tech, high-capital investment project today, and retail investors cannot compete with investment funds in these two aspects. In the futures market, people often ask each other such a question: What do you think of the market? However, it often happens that you have seen too much, but you have left a lot of empty orders in your hand. Why? Most people complain that their position is unstable or blame others for misleading, but they rarely reflect on the transaction itself at a deeper level. At present, our retail investors engaged in futures investment have different backgrounds, such as those engaged in industry, those engaged in spot trade, those engaged in stocks and so on. Many people can be said to be first-class in terms of management ability, trade negotiation ability, public relations ability and market expansion ability. They are already familiar with the transactions in the shopping center. But futures investment is different. It deals with the futures market and the market is always right. You can't beat it. To meet the market demand, we need professional knowledge and technology, which most retail investors do not have and cannot learn in a short time, so that most retail investors only operate futures by feeling and spot trading knowledge, and the result is self-evident. The price level of the futures market is relative. The concept of spot market price level is useless in futures market. Futures prices may be high or low. There are only two forms of price: "trend" and "consolidation". The fear of price makes ordinary retail investors feel that it is safer to operate against the market (high throwing and low sucking) than against the market. Most retail investors are afraid of failure, which is a common weakness in human psychology. Moreover, the stop loss point must be calculated comprehensively according to the principles of fund management and risk control and the behavior of the market itself. Retail investors often do not have good trading principles and methods, so most of them are reluctant to set stop-loss points. It is also the common psychology of retail investors to be eager for quick success and instant benefit, be safe in your pocket and be impatient. It is easy to close positions that could have generated huge profits, so that profits are out of proportion to risks, and it is easy for retail investors to lose money. This idea of quick success and safety in their pockets is hard to change. Some retail investors will say that we rely on technical analysis, as long as we master fixed analysis methods and analyze the price trend in detail, but this is not the case. When analyzing the price chart, retail investors often have preconceived views on the market trend, and sometimes it is not easy to detect, so when analyzing the price chart, they can often construct the price chart and trend line they want. Some retail investors like to use technical indicators to analyze the market, but when using this method, the selection of parameters is very arbitrary, which is often inconsistent with the periodic characteristics of the analyzed varieties. Moreover, the traditional technical analysis system can only display the technical form by setting the technical parameters subjectively, and judge the trading opportunities in the market subjectively or by personal experience, which not only has the randomness of technical parameters, the lag of trading signals and the subjectivity of technical form, but also has no function of simulation and prediction. A complete futures trading should include investment psychology, fund management and market analysis, and its importance is decreasing according to the ranking, but most retail investors only realize the importance of "market analysis", which obviously smacks of putting the cart before the horse. Trading in the venture capital market (especially in the futures market) is a combination of cognition and action. Correct analysis only solves the cognitive problem. If the investment psychology and fund management are not handled properly, even the correct view may lead to serious losses. The author believes that a successful futures trader needs professional knowledge such as economics, finance, chart analysis and mathematics, perfect personality and psychological quality, sufficient (relative) capital, and especially an excellent computer "trading system" that has been tested for a long time and tested in actual combat. After entering the 1990s, with the leap-forward development of computer technology, a new technical analysis method system characterized by "computerized decision-making through fuzzy analysis" is taking shape in the global venture capital market. "Trading system" is a complete rule system composed of interrelated trading rules with powerful computer as the carrier and technical analysis as the background. The understanding of the "trading system" in the venture capital market has gone through a process from scratch, from disdain to active research. As an individual investor, he has also gone through the stage from panic and greed driven by interests, to independent analysis and following the banker's ambivalence, and finally to the objective and rational use of the "trading system" for trading. Richarddenis is an evergreen tree in the American futures market. In the 1960s, he achieved great success by analyzing technical indicators. However, in the late 1970s and early 1980s, when the price fluctuated, he suffered serious setbacks due to his negligence in fund management and investment psychology. He lost more than half of his management account, and richarddenis once disappeared. However, in the 1990s, richarddenis rose again with his "trading system" designed with great concentration, and was re-appointed as the national investment fund manager in 1996. At present, "trading system" is widely used in developed foreign futures markets, which has become a machine disturbance. It can avoid people's mentality in futures trading, effectively prevent people from chasing up and down and losing money, avoid trapping space or attracting more traps, get rid of the harmful influence of investor's emotional fluctuation on trading to the maximum extent, and minimize the trading risk through good fund management, thus improving investors' mentality and establishing a virtuous circle that is extremely beneficial to successful investment. A complete "trading system" should include three parts: trend operating system, fund management system and risk control system. It is an organic combination of psychological control, fund management, risk control and market statistical analysis. It can give a series of characteristic parameters of the trading system before trading, such as expected profit rate, possible maximum loss, stop-loss reversal price, trend reversal probability, etc., so as to realize objectification and intelligence of the trading system. The domestic futures industry has not been recognized by the market, and the market forces that follow the system trading are only a small part, which will not affect the market itself and produce less "noise", so the next few years will be the time for the "trading system" to show its talents.