On Wednesday, Zheng Mian rebounded slightly and fell back in the evening: the main contract was 0 1 up15 to13,970 yuan/ton, and the position increased10,000 lots. Among the top 20 main players, the main players increased by 4000 hands and the main players increased by 6000 hands.
On August 3rd, the central reserve cotton entered the market with 6000 tons, and the actual turnover was 3600 tons, with a turnover rate of 60%. The average transaction price today is 15779 yuan/ton, down from the previous day 18 yuan/ton. The highest transaction price is 15805 yuan/ton, and the lowest transaction price is 15745 yuan/ton. Among them, the inland warehouse sold 3600 tons, and the warehouse sold 2 tons. According to the warehousing price calculation formula, the highest bid on August 4th was 15703 yuan/ton, and the quantity of cotton purchased was 6000 tons (conditional weight).
Spot: On August 3rd, China cotton price index 15674 yuan/ton, down 104 yuan/ton.
Today, the domestic cotton spot market is dominated by stable lint spot, and the quotations of most enterprises have not changed much compared with yesterday.
The foundation has been stable recently. The impurity content of Xinjiang machine-picked/hand-picked 2 1/3 1 (double 29/ double 30) is below 2.5, and the basis difference of inland warehouse corresponding to CF209 contract is 600- 1300 yuan/ton; The basis of Xinjiang Shuang 28/ Dan 29 CF209 contract with impurity content of 2.0-2.8 is 500- 1000 yuan/ton.
Today, most of the futures market rose, and the spot closed up slightly. The spot market lint price is relatively stable. Some cotton merchants said that there are more buyers of lint recently, mostly seeking safe haven opportunities for textile mills.
At present, the ordering period is relatively short, mostly around mid-August. The downstream consumption of textiles improved slightly, and the demand for lint in some textile mills improved slightly. Individual textile enterprises report that there are occasional orders for medium and low count yarns in air spinning recently. According to the current purchase price of lint, there are still a few hundred yuan of profits to be made. However, there are many sources in the market, so it is difficult to find a suitable source that meets your own cotton needs. Some bases are high, some indexes are poor, and most of them are through picking transactions.
It is understood that the basis or unit delivery price of machine-picked cotton resources within 3 1 grade double 28/29 2.5 in some Xinjiang warehouses is 15330- 15850 yuan/ton.
[Abstract]
American cotton: The core of the price collapse is that the price rises to an overvalued level, and the profit is reflected (especially in July, when the contract was gradually terminated, the game factor came to an end). The direct factors are recent macro trends, demand concerns and the risk of economic recession after market transactions, and the fund began to withdraw quickly. So the price has also gone out of the other end of the pulse market. The latest monthly report and sales report show that demand is weakening, which leads to the strengthening of industry driving force. However, as we mentioned earlier, the short-term valuation is reasonable after the price drops sharply, and the short-term stabilization, rebound or high fluctuation are caused by factors such as poor weather and crop yield, downstream demand and short covering. However, the great weakening of demand in the future is still taking place, which determines the tone of weakness, especially in the context of continued trading of the US dollar to tighten liquidity and economic recession.
Domestically, the plunge is also following the general commodity decline environment, facing the weakness of the fundamentals themselves, the moisture of rising prices in the early stage, and the lightening of prices in the later stage, so the decline is relatively large. Then with the decline of American cotton. After the continuous rapid decline, the spot cost side resistance increased and the spinning profit recovered, which is the basis for the current stabilization and rebound. Especially from the perspective of positions, due to the rapid decline process, positions are maintained at a high level, and once they rebound, the cover of empty orders will cause great fluctuations. However, the overall weak tone of cotton prices is difficult to change (bottom operation or low innovation is possible), especially in the new economic and demand environment, facing the "free" pricing of cotton in the new year, combined with the macro situation and Li Po,
Related question and answer: What does Cotton 2 105 mean? Cotton 2 105 is a variety of futures, and the related trend can be seen in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange. As of August 20th, 20021year, the quotation is 17595.