The underlying reasons for the skyrocketing bitcoin.
According to the market data of Bitcoin CoinDesk, the global bitcoin transaction volume is the highest since 20 1 1, and the bitcoin market shows a strange trend that is almost synchronized with the decline of RMB exchange rate. According to the data of the bitcoin trading platform OKCoin, bitcoin has shown a continuous upward trend in the last three months, with a cumulative increase of more than 10%, and the highest breakthrough was 5,300 yuan/coin. Compared with the data of 438+05 in the same period in 2065, Bitcoin has increased by more than 200%, making it the best investment product of the year. Among them, the vast majority of global bitcoin transactions take place in China, and the transaction volume of the three major bitcoin trading platforms in China has successfully accounted for 98% of the total global transactions.
The amazing crazy performance of Bitcoin has amazed all investors. At a time when the bitcoin market is booming, we cannot look at the development of bitcoin in isolation. The author believes that the fundamental reason for the large-scale rise of Bitcoin is the specific investment environment in China. Decider:
First, real estate regulation squeezed out funds to invest in Bitcoin. /kloc-since 0/0, major first-and second-tier cities across the country have intensively introduced real estate control policies, which is called "the strictest property market regulation in history". After the regulation, the transaction volume of real estate in various places decreased rapidly, and the cooling of real estate squeezed out a lot of funds from the real estate field. At the same time, under the premise of negative interest rate and asset shortage, domestic investors are facing the dilemma of lack of investment channels. Investment funds that were still waiting to see the property market have sought new investment channels, and decentralized bitcoin is undoubtedly a new bright spot for investment. What's more, the investment threshold of Bitcoin is low, and investing in Bitcoin has almost become an effective means to realize asset appreciation in China.
Second, the volatility of the stock market leads investors to strongly avoid risks. Since September, the stock market, as another big reservoir of funds, has been rising all the way, with the stock index reaching more than 3,200 points. However, recent market volatility has intensified, which has increased the pressure on investors. Compared with the long-term fluctuation of the stock market, bitcoin has become an important product to replace the stock market for asset allocation due to its recent continuous rise. New investment channels, such as bitcoin, have become excellent inflow targets of funds flowing out of the stock market and the property market, thus raising the price of bitcoin.
Third, exchange rate volatility has increased the popularity of Bitcoin. As mentioned above, while bitcoin keeps rising, the RMB exchange rate keeps falling. This potential correlation between Bitcoin and RMB has aroused the imagination of a large number of investors. Some media reported that Bitcoin can be traded in the international market. Therefore, under the background of the rapid depreciation of RMB and the increase of foreign investment control by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Bitcoin began to become the so-called "foreign exchange underground highway", and some people realized RMB funds going to sea through "foreign exchange currency". The so-called "currency exchange" is to convert domestic RMB assets into bitcoin, then use bitcoin to transfer to bitcoin trading platforms in other countries, and finally sell them through bitcoin trading platforms in other countries to obtain foreign exchange.
Fourth, bitcoin arbitrage has become a new way to make money. In ancient China, merchants made money by buying things in the east and selling them in the west, earning the price difference through different prices of the same commodity in different places. This phenomenon that the same investment product has different prices in different markets has formed a large number of arbitrage market behaviors. Some people say that as long as there is a price difference, there is room for arbitrage. Bitcoin is no exception. Because there are so many bitcoin exchanges, none of them are authoritative exchanges. In the case that Bitcoin easily crosses national borders and exchanges, a large number of financial and computer professionals have joined the Bitcoin arbitrage army. They constantly searched for the price difference between different exchanges through web crawler technology, and obtained high profits through price difference arbitrage, thus attracting a large number of people to flood into the transaction process of Bitcoin.
The above four reasons * * * have a comprehensive impact, leading to a hot domestic bitcoin trading market and soaring prices.
Does Bitcoin invest in seawater or flame?
As an investment product, any investment product will have risks, and Bitcoin is no exception. The author has been paying attention to Bitcoin since its rise a few years ago. As a kind of virtual digital currency without any currency reserve and any national credit guarantee, Bitcoin is no less than a ticking time bomb in the eyes of any financial professional. Although the bitcoin market is booming and a large number of investors are wandering in it, its risks still exist.
First, is Bitcoin a currency or a commodity? As we all know, there has always been a dispute between money and goods in the investment field. If bitcoin is a currency, then the price of bitcoin should be determined by its currency value, so investing in bitcoin has a relatively fixed range just like investing in foreign exchange, but the bitcoin we see is not like this. Compared with currency, bitcoin is more like a commodity that delivers parcels. Just like tulip bubble, Clivia bubble and postal card bubble, it has no precious metals such as gold and silver as currency equivalents, and no national credit, government credit or even bank credit as guarantee, so the transaction risk of Bitcoin is extremely high. Once any loopholes are found in the mathematical model of Bitcoin, it will be an almost catastrophic risk for Bitcoin.
The second is the prevalence of bitcoin financial mutual assistance. In addition to the traditional bitcoin mining and trading methods, there are a large number of mutual gold companies at home and abroad that conduct P2P transactions under the banner of bitcoin, such as the well-known MMM financial mutual gold community platform in Russia. These platforms hold high the banner of financial circulation creating value and attract investors with high interest rates. As long as you lend Bitcoin to others, you can get a high profit return. However, anyone who has carefully studied the principle of Bitcoin will understand that owning a private key is the only proof of owning Bitcoin. Once you give Bitcoin to someone else, it means that you may lose all the ownership of Bitcoin. Once bitcoin leaves your offline wallet, it means it may be lost forever. This is because the so-called mutual gold servers are mostly abroad, and they take advantage of the anonymous private key transaction characteristics of Bitcoin. Even if they steal or illegally occupy your bitcoin, it is basically impossible to recover it if the law is not perfect.
The third is the high risk of bitcoin monopoly. Where there are people, there are rivers and lakes. There are dealers and brokers in the stock market, and the bitcoin market is still indispensable. Compared with the high capital in the capital market, it is much easier to become a banker in the bitcoin market than in the capital market. Some media reported that if there are powerful organizations and institutions to mine or buy bitcoin in large quantities, as long as the shareholding ratio reaches 25%, they can completely manipulate the bitcoin market. In the real market, although there is no big market maker to manipulate the market, it is very common for Bitcoin to chase up and down and maliciously short for profit. The characteristics of easy bitcoin trading make the volatility of bitcoin market much higher than that of stocks, even crazier than futures trading with violent market fluctuations.
Fourth, the risk of bitcoin money laundering is greater. As a special investment product, Bitcoin is extremely complex in nature. Due to the adoption of blockchain technology and its remarkable characteristics of virtualization, anonymity and decentralization, it can escape the supervision of regulatory agencies to some extent. Therefore, to some extent, Bitcoin has become an important tool for criminals to launder money. Overseas, news that criminals use bitcoin to launder money often breaks out. Although the domestic formal bitcoin trading platform is relatively strict in monitoring money laundering transactions, due to the concealment of bitcoin, bitcoin money laundering is still a very likely thing, so the risk of money laundering is still high. If you accidentally violate the national laws, you may go to jail.
Looking back on the development of Bitcoin, there are four reasons why Bitcoin has become the hottest investment product at this stage, but the four major risks have always warned us that investing in Bitcoin is extremely risky. I hope that investors can maintain a cautious attitude and treat bitcoin investment.
Viewing Jiang Han, the official account of World WeChat from an economic perspective ID: jianghanwiew