Personally, I think: to study banks, we can't use abacus and just look at statements. If you only look at the report, what you actually get is just a "legend". But there is always a way to measure things. I found that I can use a big abacus to learn from banks. What is a big abacus? It's a big account, not a small one. The following are some accounts that I personally calculated for the bank:
First, the local banks are surging, the competition among banks is fierce, and the industry is already surplus: the old shareholders remember the long-term bull market of SDB. But what era was that? The financial industry is blank. Shenzhen's reform and opening up has just begun, with fewer banks and fewer outlets. Such an era is gone forever.
Second, banks have the same development model, similar business projects and serious homogenization: there is one China Industrial and Commercial Bank in China and three state-owned banks similar to ICBC. In addition, dozens of joint-stock commercial banks want to become ICBC, and hundreds of local banks want to become joint-stock commercial banks. Can China really accommodate hundreds of "industrial and commercial banks"? Do you need to put it aside? The problem is that in order to realize their dream of ICBC, they keep opening branches, constantly lack funds and constantly raise funds, and the final result is death or inefficiency.
Third, the authenticity of bank performance is unconvincing: 1, making money, why does no bank dare to insist on a large proportion of cash dividends? 2. If you make money, why do you need to keep allotment/issuance/private placement/convertible bonds /H shares (often in turn)? If joint-stock banks have opened new branches, why do all state-owned banks need them? Can't understand.
Fourth, the profit source of banks is single, and the principal is worrying: most of the profits of foreign banks come from intermediate income (including securities/futures fees) and investment income (including equity acquisition and commodity investment). In China, banks are not allowed to engage in these industries. Then the bank's income can only rely on loans, and loans can't help but worry about the safety of the principal. This risk is too great (and the loan interest rate has not been marketized).
Fifth, banks are highly leveraged industries, facing disasters at any time: banks are highly leveraged industries that use other people's money to do business, and it has its heyday, but when banks "defect", they often come very unexpectedly, and most of the time they completely disappear from the earth. Needless to say, the fallen banks in the United States (how many banks are there in a hundred years? )。 Let's say China: ancient businessmen Qiao Zhiyong, Meng Luochuan, Hu Xueyan, etc. I didn't start from industry, but I ended up in a "money house" and lost my life.
Sixth, banking is a strong cyclical industry: the nature of banks determines their tragic fate. What is the essence of banking? Since ancient times, it is precisely because banks are the mother of all walks of life that banks are actually a tool of the government. When it is necessary to invigorate the economy, the government has an attitude towards banks, such as lowering the deposit reserve ratio and lowering interest rates. When it is not needed, it is another attitude, such as letting the bank perish and letting the bank bear the consequences that the government should bear. The bank is just a pawn.
Seven, the person who manages the bank must be an expert in investment and have a very good conscience, so that the bank will have a good future. Buffett said that insurance is not an easy business, and I don't think banking is a good business. First of all, we should know about Qian Shengqian. Secondly, we should always have a sense of security. I haven't found such a bank yet.
Eighth, no bank will give shareholders more cash dividends than they get from IPO. Many financial enterprises, the current net assets are less than the total cash obtained through IPO.
I can't read the bank statement. But these eight, I understand.
(Personal opinions are for criticism or reference only and do not constitute any investment basis. The stock market is risky, the decision is up to you, and you need to be careful when buying and selling. )