The reporter recently learned that the agency's forecast of supply and demand of stock market funds next year is more cautious than in previous years. According to the agency, it is difficult to accurately judge the macroeconomic development situation at home and abroad next year, and the New Year path of China stock market is also confusing, so the funds that directly determine the stock market trend have become an unspeakable topic for the agency. According to the analysis of supply and demand, a rough judgment given by the organization is that the stock market funds in 2009 are generally tight. At the same time, institutions have given more imagination to the influence of monetary policy and fiscal policy on stock market funds. They believe that under the background of internal and external troubles, although the two major policies can not bring "great heat" to the A-share market, they may add a "warmth". The stock market funds are generally tight. The reporter learned in the survey that a rough judgment given by most institutions is that the stock market funds were generally tight in 2009. The institutional analysis of this comes from two aspects. On the one hand, the funds that can enter the stock market are relatively limited. According to the data of M 1 and M2, the growth rate of M 1 in1month was 6.8%, which was 8 percentage points lower than that of M2 14.8%, and the gap with M2 showed signs of further expansion. The reason may come from two aspects. First, residents' funds flow back to banks. The second is the normalization of corporate deposits. Since February this year, the number of new accounts opened by A-shares and funds has been decreasing, and the proportion of shareholding accounts in total accounts has also gradually decreased since May. Under the influence of wealth effect, residents' willingness to invest in the market will remain low in 2009. On the other hand, there will be a big gap in the demand for funds in the stock market next year. First of all, the potential demand for direct financing in 2009 is large. In 2009, the demand for direct financing (IPO, additional issuance, rights issue, etc.). ) It is definitely not as good as that in 2007 and 2008. However, even if the capital demand of the market was adjusted in the last round, considering that China Netcom, China Agricultural Bank, China Construction and other "Big Macs" will be listed soon, the capital demand of newly issued shares is estimated to be no less than 654.38+000 billion yuan, which puts great pressure on the market. "Even if the issuance of new shares in the primary market is not considered, the number of newly issued shares in the secondary market is still considerable." Wu Yunben, senior analyst of Haitong Securities, believes that easing the pressure of stock supply in 2009 will probably become one of the important goals of stock market policy in 2009. Secondly, the market demand for funds is huge. Even though the willingness of large non-investors to reduce their holdings is restricted by policies, the willingness of small non-investors to reduce their holdings is still strong in the overall poor market environment, especially the small non-investors of listed companies who lack fundamental support and have poor development prospects. According to statistics, from June 5438 to July 2008, the proportion of non-reduction reached about 29.78%. Among them, the proportion of big non-total reduction is 17.24%, and the proportion of small non-total reduction is 43. 15%. According to the latest statistical report of CITIC Securities, the number of A shares released in 2009 was 7083120,000 shares, while in 2008 it was only1622.02 million shares. The number of shares issued increased from 654,38+03,565,438+07 million in 2008 to 39,335 million in 2009. If the average share price of A shares in 200810.4 is 5.67 yuan, it is equivalent to an increase of 4,065,438 yuan+0,665,438 yuan+27 million yuan, which is almost equal to the circulating market value of A shares in 200810.4. In terms of time distribution, the pressure of lifting the ban in 2009 was particularly prominent in the second half of the year because of the lifting of the ban by hundreds of billions of shares, and the lifting of the ban was the largest in July and June of 2009 10. For example, in July 2009, the total number of shares released was186471000000, which exceeded the total number released in 2008, mainly because Bank of China had17103000. In June 2009, the total number of shares released from the ban was 313.057 billion, almost twice that of the whole year of 2008. This is mainly because ICBC issued 236 billion shares, China Petrochemical issued 57 billion shares and Shanghai Port Group issued 654.38 billion shares. It is difficult to consider the impact of interest rate cuts. Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the central bank, recently said in Hong Kong that from now until next year, China is under pressure to cut interest rates, but whether to cut interest rates depends on the speed of CPI decline. After several rounds of interest rate cuts, the role of interest rate cuts in improving market liquidity began to appear. According to the financial data released by the central bank recently, the balance of RMB loans increased by 1 16.03% at the end of 10, up by 1.45 percentage points from the end of last month. In the month, new loans amounted to 476.9 billion yuan, an increase of 295 billion yuan over the previous month and 389.5 billion yuan over the same period last year. "It is estimated that the future interest rate cut will be 54 to 108 basis points." Chen Xiaoxiang, the proposed fund manager of Huitianfu Value Selection Fund, said that the economy will gradually recover in the process of continuously cutting interest rates, which is the strongest support for the fundamentals of the stock market. He believes that next year, stocks in large-scale assets should be able to obtain excess returns relative to cash, commodities and bonds, and there will be structural opportunities in the stock market. However, the structural differentiation of the market will be more severe next year. Li Fei, a strategist at Jinyuan Lian Bi Fund, believes that the impact of interest rate cuts on stock market liquidity is not so obvious. "Whether funds can enter the capital market, especially the stock market, depends on the activity of credit and funds." He said that the current liquidity of funds is mainly concentrated in the interbank market. The liquidity of stock market funds is difficult to judge because expectations and fundamentals determine the performance of the stock market. Therefore, we should observe the new funds that may enter the market according to credit and M 1. A report from the fixed income department of Haitong Securities said: At present, the market funds are still abundant, and abundant funds are compressing the yield to "1", especially the money market interest rate is rapidly approaching 1%. On the one hand, the range and frequency of recent interest rate cuts are rare in recent years, and the reduction of the reserve ratio has released about 600 billion to 800 billion yuan; On the other hand, short-term and medium-term national debt will usher in a long-term active pattern: under the active fiscal policy, national debt will be issued in large quantities, and the scale in 2009 may reach several times that of this year. In addition to the secondary market, interest rate cuts will also have a positive impact on the company's capital flow. Judging from the interest payment in the third quarter of this year, the industries that can increase the net profit in this round of interest rate reduction are mainly machinery and equipment, automobiles, building materials, chemicals and electric power industries. From the perspective of cash flow relief, the industries that benefit from interest rate reduction include household appliances, communication and electrical equipment, pharmaceutical biology, basic chemical industry and so on. In addition, CITIC Securities believes that China's economy will rebound in the second half of next year with the introduction of a series of monetary and fiscal policies by the China government. In this way, overseas hot money will follow. According to the effects of fiscal policy research report recently completed by BOC International, the 4 trillion infrastructure investment in fiscal policy will promote the bank to increase credit by 550 billion yuan in 2009, and it can be predicted that the final credit line of commercial banks in 2009 will exceed previous pessimistic expectations. The active lending of commercial banks will increase the money multiplier of the whole society, thus improving the capital supply of the whole society. According to the analysis, from the perspective of the use of bank funds, banks will increase the proportion of bond investment when they are reluctant to lend. At present, the downside of the bond market has narrowed. By the second quarter of 2009, the time deposit of 1 may be lowered to 1.98%, while the central bank bill level of 1 may be lower than 1%. Prior to this, insurance funds and some equity funds will still hold bonds, and newly intensively issued bond funds will continue to bring incremental funds to the bond market. Therefore, in the short and medium term, the supply of funds in the bond market is abundant. Analysts believe that although the funds indirectly reaching the securities market through banks will be more invested in the bond market, it will be beneficial to the funds in the stock market next year, because it will reduce the funds diverted from the stock market. Following the pace of 4 trillion financial funds, the scale of insurance funds entering the stock market will also be improved. Wu Dingfu, chairman of the China Insurance Regulatory Commission, said that in the future, insurance funds will appropriately increase investment in the stock market. Wu Dingfu introduced that the proportion of insurance funds entering the stock market can reach 15%, which is only 8% at present, and there is still room for improvement of 7%. According to reports, the China Insurance Regulatory Commission is currently studying the system of insurance funds investing in the equity of high-quality listed companies, and will definitely increase its efforts in this regard next year. According to the data of the China Insurance Regulatory Commission, as of the end of September, the A-share investment of insurance funds was 407.56 billion yuan. It is estimated that the scale of insurance funds entering the market will reach about 700 billion next year. In addition, the recent information about social security increasing its stock investment position and Huijin increasing its holding of CCB has brought the market the expectation that incremental funds will enter the stock market. The market basically expects that social security and Huijin will replace the role of the stabilization fund. Driven by this good news and the expectation of interest rate cuts, residents' savings may be partially diverted to the stock market in the future. (