Kissinger, a famous American politician, once said this.
Hello, I'm Yu Jin.
Judging from Kissinger's remarks, no matter who controls oil and grain, the existence of dollar hegemony almost gives the United States the right to issue money. No wonder successive American presidents are keen to be "world policemen".
Dollar hegemony actually means that in the international monetary system, the dollar occupies a dominant position, and the United States can impose sanctions on other countries at will to restrict other countries from using the dollar for transactions.
This will directly affect the international trade of other countries, so how is the dollar hegemony established? The hegemony of the dollar can be divided into two parts, one is the gold dollar system, and the other is the petroleum dollar system.
The dollar gold standard means that after the end of World War II, the dollar is directly linked to gold, that is, the dollar is equal to gold. Gold has the advantage of hard currency and is less affected by leverage, so most countries will want to reserve gold assets.
This also means that countries need to exchange dollars for gold, so all countries in the world cannot do without dollars. Then let's look at how the dollar gold standard was formed.
As we all know, since the birth of capitalism, Britain has become an empire that never falls, and Britain has dug up a lot of gold in colonies and other places.
Before World War II, Britain's gold reserves were as high as 12000 tons, so before World War II, most of the world's trade was settled in pounds.
After World War II, Britain was hit hard by German aggression, Britain gradually declined, and its gold reserves were greatly reduced. During World War II, European countries were in chaos, and the war also brought a lot of uncertainty to the value of the pound.
Therefore, countries dare not use the pound as the settlement currency, but more use gold for settlement, and the status of gold is further improved.
Compared with countries in Eurasia, the United States is very quiet when it is far from the other side of the ocean. At this critical moment, the United States seized the opportunity to mass-produce military weapons and sell them to other countries.
In this war, the United States made another windfall. Because countries use gold to buy military weapons from the United States, a large amount of gold also flows to the United States.
By 1948, the domestic gold reserve in the United States had reached 2 1682 tons, exceeding that of Britain at its peak. At that time, the United States owned three-quarters of the world's gold.
The United States, which has a large amount of gold assets, held an international conference in 1994 to formally confirm the international monetary system after World War II, namely the famous Bretton Woods system.
At the meeting, the United States proposed that the US dollar should be made into an international currency, and the currencies of various countries should be directly linked to the US dollar, and the US dollar should be directly linked to gold. The ratio of dollar to gold is fixed.
At the same time, a stable exchange rate system was established, and the fluctuation range of the exchange rate of currencies against the US dollar should not exceed 1%, and the US dollar gold system was formally established. What the United States did not expect was that the Bretton Woods system collapsed in 197 1 year.
Why did the dollar gold standard collapse? The main reason is the flood of dollars, which is directly linked to gold, which means that the amount of dollars depends on the amount of gold, but the United States began to print and issue dollars crazily.
At that time, the United States issued dollars differently from now. The United States issued dollars mainly to help other countries, because the United States was less affected by World War II and its economy developed rapidly, and a large number of domestic goods were thinking about how to sell them. At this time, the United States thought of a way.
American aid to other countries can improve the consumption power of other countries, so that countries will import a large number of goods from the United States with dollars, and finally the dollars will return to the pockets of the United States, and the dollars will be globalized.
At that time, because all countries were busy with economic recovery, they didn't directly convert these dollars into gold, but they still wanted to put them on the market to promote national economic development. Therefore, countries simply didn't find that the amount of printed dollars was not equal to the amount of gold stored.
The massive issuance of dollars by the United States will inevitably lead to the depreciation of the dollar. After the United States released water crazily, countries began to realize that it was wrong.
Many countries in the world want to exchange their money for gold, but because the ratio of dollars to gold was fixed when the Bretton Woods system was established, it is impossible for the United States to give so much gold to all countries in the world.
In the end, the credit crisis broke out in the dollar and the Bretton Woods system collapsed completely. Countries no longer use dollars, which leads to extreme chaos in the foreign exchange market.
It was not until 1974 that the dollar oil system was formally established and the dollar once again established its dominance.
Currency hegemony is mainly based on the comprehensive strength of the country. Although the dollar gold standard system has collapsed, the comprehensive strength of the United States has not changed. The United States is still a superpower, and the United States will naturally not give up dollar hegemony.
As a result, the United States seized the fourth Middle East War, which led to a sharp rise in the price of oil, an indispensable energy source for all countries, and a rapid rise in the production costs of all countries, which in turn led to an economic crisis. At this time, the United States turned its attention to oil.
The United States is also an oil producer, but a single country doesn't have that much oil, so it found Saudi Arabia.
The United States expressed its willingness to provide assistance to Saudi Arabia, but Saudi Arabia's foreign oil export trade must be settled in US dollars. In this way, countries must have dollars to buy oil, and countries will naturally increase their foreign exchange reserves denominated in dollars in order to import oil.
If you want to import oil, all countries in the world can't do without the dollar. After the petrodollar system was formally established and the US dollar re-established its hegemonic position, the US dollar has been occupying a dominant position in the international monetary system for many years.
The dollar relies on Saudi Arabia to establish a dollar oil system, and naturally some countries will want to break through this system. There has been a credit crisis before the US dollar, so countries around the world will naturally not reserve US dollar assets unless they want to buy oil.
Countries will naturally buy US Treasury bonds for US dollar assets, but does the United States have the money to pay them back? There is also a big question mark.
Since the dollar is the dollar hegemony established by oil, it is too simple for all countries in the world to crush the dollar hegemony system as long as they do not use the dollar for settlement.
At that time, Saddam Hussein of Iraq announced that Iraq's oil trade would not be settled in dollars, but in euros.
This time, it directly seized the "lifeline" of the United States, and the United States launched a war against Iraq on the grounds that Iraq possessed a large number of weapons of mass destruction. In the end, the Iraq war broke out and Iraq was deeply involved in the war for many years.
In order to avoid the disappearance of the country, the Iraqi interim government quickly announced that the oil trade would be settled in euros instead of dollars. In the end, all countries in the world finally compromised to the hegemony of the dollar, and the dollar gradually became the first currency.
As the US dollar is the currency in circulation in the world and occupies a dominant position in the monetary system, most international trade transactions need to rely on the US dollar for settlement.
Therefore, the United States can also use the hegemonic position of the dollar to sanction other countries and restrict other countries from conducting international trade.
In today's economic globalization, if you can't trade with other countries because you can't settle in US dollars, you can imagine how serious the losses will be, and the economy of the sanctioned country will inevitably suffer a major blow.
Recently, Biden launched several rounds of economic stimulus plans after taking office. Biden's big release of water has made countries around the world very worried.
On the evening of 65438+ 10 14, Biden announced his coming to power, and immediately launched the first round of economic stimulus plan, amounting to 1.9 trillion US dollars, which was mainly used to fight the epidemic and distribute aid.
Affected by the epidemic, the economic development of the United States is not optimistic, so where should this huge sum be taken out? It's simple. We can get the money by raising tariffs and continuing to issue bonds.
In fact, borrowing money in the world means borrowing money from other countries to stimulate the economic development of the United States. In the final analysis, it is to harvest the wealth of the world to support the development of the United States.
The big release of the dollar will inevitably lead to inflation in various countries. After the discovery of a large amount of dollars this year, various countries, including Turkey, started to raise interest rates one after another to avoid the inflation crisis.
It was thought that inflation could be avoided by this method, but Turkey's interest rate hike also had a certain impact on the exchange rate of Turkish local currency lira against the US dollar.
After Turkey raised the benchmark interest rate from 17% to 19%, the lira fell by 17% against the US dollar, which means that Turkey's assets have been shrinking.
In order to solve this problem, countries can only continue to print money to maintain exchange rate stability. In this way, there will be more money circulating in the market, and an inflation crisis will naturally break out.
What is even more worrying is that with the improvement of the American economy, after the United States releases a large amount of water to a certain extent, the United States will adopt a tight fiscal policy and bring the world's dollars back to China quickly through various means, which is equivalent to the economic prosperity of other countries.
Affected by this, prices in many countries such as Russia have risen, and Brazil has repeatedly declared bankruptcy because it does not have enough funds to repay its foreign debts.
Biden's multi-billion-dollar plan has affected many countries. If the world continues to harvest dollars, the economic crisis in various countries will become more and more serious.
From ancient times to the present, dollar hegemony is only one of the financial weapons of the United States. There are also various rating and credit agencies in the United States. The United States has the ability to control the entire international financial market.
It can be said that the rules of the international financial market are decided by the United States and maintained by the United States. In this way, other countries will live under the dollar financial system, and the United States can use the dollar hegemony to launch financial wars against other countries at will.
It is normal for the United States to use the hegemonic position of the dollar to harvest in the world through various means.
Let me give you a few more examples.
Recently, as early as 20 19, Fitch and other international rating companies suddenly downgraded Greek government bonds, which led to countries all over the world selling Greek government bonds in order to avoid risks.
Many investors evacuated from the Greek financial system urgently, and this storm also spread to the whole European region, leading to the depreciation of the euro, and then the foreign exchange reserves of European countries quickly lost, so that the United States weakened the strength of the euro.
Previously, after the end of World War II, with the support of the United States, Japan's economy developed rapidly and its manufacturing industry rose rapidly. After people get a lot of wealth, they invest it in the stock or real estate market, and finally a bubble economy appears.
The United States devalued the dollar by manipulating the exchange rate, which made Japan's domestic currency appreciate rapidly, which brought a major blow to Japanese manufacturing.
Then, in order to stimulate the domestic economic development, the Japanese government could only continue to lower the loan threshold and urge people to borrow more money to invest in the economy, which eventually led to the complete collapse of Japan's bubble economy and the defeat of Japan's financial system by the United States.
If any country is persecuted by the dollar the most, it has to mention Libya. As early as 20 1 1, the multinational Coalition forces marched into Libya in order to seize oil resources under the guise of maintaining humanitarianism.
Although Libya's territory is small, it is rich in domestic oil resources. Libya once made a lot of wealth through oil trade.
The United States is a dollar hegemony system established by oil. If Libya does not use US dollars to settle its oil hegemony system, it will be greatly impacted. It is naturally impossible for the United States to allow Libya to take such action.
Therefore, the United States directly depressed Libyan oil prices through military invasion, which naturally caused fluctuations in Libyan oil prices.
Eventually, under the pressure of the United States, most of Libya's domestic crude oil was privatized. The so-called privatization is not controlled by the Libyan people, but mostly by foreigners.
In the end, Libya's oil resources were carved up by western countries led by the United States, and its economic development never recovered.
It has long been pointed out that the United States is targeting Libya at this time, not only because Libya wants to get rid of dollar settlement, but also because of China.
At that time, a large number of China people were engaged in various jobs such as oil exploitation in Libyan cities, and 1 1% of the oil exported from Libya entered the China market.
The United States is more worried that with the increasing cooperation between China and Libya, Libya will eventually unite with China to jointly resist the hegemony of the dollar. Obviously, as long as the United States can control all Libyan oil resources, the dollar oil system will not collapse.
Obviously, the United States has been pursuing this dollar priority strategy, which has harmed the interests of other countries. This move is eroding the dollar credit, which means that all countries in the world will take all measures to accelerate dollarization, and the trend of dollarization is unstoppable.
China has been targeted by the United States in recent years, and the United States may also use the hegemony of the dollar to curb the development of China. So can the RMB launch a counterattack? The answer is absolutely yes.
First of all, the dollar can determine its hegemonic position because all countries in the world are using it for settlement. If all countries in the world can reduce the use of dollars for settlement, then the hegemonic position of dollars will naturally be affected.
In fact, it is not stipulated that the trade between countries must be settled in US dollars. If both parties to the transaction can reach an agreement on settlement in local currency, or they can bypass the settlement in US dollars, then naturally there is no need to be restricted by US dollars.
Russia knows this truth well. As early as before, when Russia was sanctioned by the United States, Russia sold dollar assets and reduced the use of dollars for settlement. Most of Russia's trade with European countries is settled in euros.
Russia is gradually getting rid of the dollar settlement system, which is conducive to getting rid of US sanctions.
China can also take the same measures as Russia to accelerate dollarization, and another way is to promote the internationalization of RMB. If the RMB really wants to break through the limitation of the US dollar hegemony system, then the RMB must go international.
Because the United States has always pursued the priority of the US dollar, the credit of the US dollar has decreased, the Biden administration has continuously released water, and the trust of countries in the US dollar has become lower and lower, so the opportunity for the RMB has come.
China must give full play to its advantages as a big country, actively cooperate with other countries, make more use of RMB settlement in the process of cooperation, and promote the scope of RMB settlement.
In order to break through the hegemonic system of the US dollar, China has also made a lot of efforts.
As early as 20 15, China signed an energy agreement with Russia, which clearly stipulated that the energy trade between China and Russia should be settled in RMB.
China Shanghai Crude Oil Futures Exchange was formally established on 20 18. China took this opportunity to expand the pricing power of RMB and actively use RMB to settle accounts with Middle Eastern countries. Last year, the trading volume of Shanghai crude oil futures increased by 20% year-on-year.
In addition, in March this year, China signed a cooperation agreement with Iran, in which it was mentioned that the trade between China and Iran would be settled more in RMB, so that the US dollar could be bypassed.
It can be seen that more and more countries are breaking through the hegemony of the US dollar. China's efforts to promote the internationalization of the RMB are now reshaping the road of the United States, but at the same time, some lessons have been learned.
However, it must be noted that China's promotion of RMB internationalization is not aimed at establishing RMB hegemony to sanction other countries like the United States.
Instead, it hopes to provide more possibilities for trade settlement in other countries and prevent the United States from using dollar hegemony to sanction other countries.
In addition to adopting the above methods, China actually has another "trump card" of China, and this "trump card" is the launch of digital RMB.
In recent years, China has been building a payment system in digital currency. Once all countries in the world and China use digital currency for settlement, it will bring great impact to the hegemony of the dollar.
Compared with the real currency, digital currency will be more stable, the country will be easier to manage, and the value of RMB will be more stable.
In addition, China is at the forefront of countries in the world in the field of digital currency, and China has seized the opportunity of development.
The decline of dollar credit also brings opportunities for the launch of digital RMB. At present, China is accelerating the construction of digital currency projects with Indonesian and other countries. China will certainly seize this opportunity to launch digital RMB, so that China's RMB can go global completely.
As for how to end the hegemony of the US dollar, it is certainly difficult to rely solely on China, but some professionals have put forward the following methods, and I will give you a summary.
First, reduce the use of US dollars for settlement and introduce more regional currencies like Euro. However, due to the different monetary systems in different countries, it is difficult to establish a regional currency like the euro.
Or you can create a currency symbol with the same function, such as virtual gold, which is recognized by all countries in the region and can be used to determine the exchange rate.
The second is to make more sovereign currencies become common currencies. Euro, Japanese yen and RMB are all currencies of sovereign countries. These currencies bear monetary responsibility.
Countries around the world do not recognize each other in the process of trade, so they can introduce more sovereign currencies and give countries around the world more choices in trade settlement.
These sovereign countries must improve their credibility and settle accounts in local currencies in order to establish a diversified monetary system.
The third is to build a cross-border payment and settlement system. The reason why people don't use gold for direct settlement is because it is very troublesome to carry gold for settlement.
In this way, the United States has established a dollar settlement system, so all countries in the world should take action to establish a monetary system different from the dollar settlement and compete with the dollar in many aspects from now on.
Fourth, domestic acceptance of overseas institutions or local currency accounts. Take the RMB as an example. After the outflow, the RMB needs to flow back to China. Therefore, it is necessary to loosen the local accounts of overseas institutions as soon as possible, so that more overseas institutions can drive the return of local currency while trading overseas.
Fifth, international financial institutions should be established to coordinate international trade settlement, which involves many issues such as exchange rate.
Because reconciliation between the two sides will inevitably lead to some contradictions, it is necessary to establish an international financial institution to mediate these disputes and so on.
Sixth, keep the exchange rate stable and promote the appreciation of the local currency. A country's exchange rate has been fluctuating, which will bring great impact to the national financial system and it is not easy to gain the trust of other countries. Therefore, it is necessary to keep the exchange rate stable and constantly promote the appreciation of the local currency.
Countries around the world have made a lot of efforts to crush the hegemony of the dollar, but the dollar is still in a dominant position and needs to continue to work hard to end the hegemony of the dollar.
The US dollar accounts for 60% of the global foreign exchange reserves, which shows that the US dollar is still the main foreign exchange reserve of all countries in the world. Countries all over the world still use US dollars for settlement, with a utilization rate as high as 39.47%.
In addition, the hegemony of the dollar is guaranteed by American military, science and technology. The United States has advantages in these areas and can determine world hegemony.
The United States can naturally guarantee the stability of the US dollar by virtue of its own strength, so it is undeniable that international investors also regard US dollar assets as their main investment.
Although all countries in the world set off a wave of dollarization, the dollar still occupies a dominant position in the world with many advantages. The dollar has a solid foundation and it is difficult to be shaken by other countries.
At present, America is like a bully. Taking advantage of other countries' desire for a better life, the United States has been distributing chemical fertilizers to many countries such as China. After everyone's fruit trees bear fruit, the United States harvests them in China and other countries with broadswords.
If any country doesn't give in to the dollar, the United States will directly take out military weapons to make the dollar the first currency, and China will reap by printing money continuously.
But these days will come to an end, especially under the epidemic situation, China has become the only major economy in the world that has achieved positive economic growth, and China's strength should not be underestimated. China will continue to play its role and make joint efforts with many economies around the world to break hegemony at an early date and give the world more choices!