Short-term influencing factors affect oil prices by influencing the relationship between supply and demand or changing people's expectations of short-term supply and demand.

1. Sudden major political events

In addition to the attributes of general commodities, oil also has the attributes of strategic materials, and its price and supply are greatly influenced by political forces and situations. In recent years, with the development of political multipolarization, economic globalization and production internationalization, competing for oil resources and controlling the oil market have become important reasons for the oil market turmoil and soaring oil prices.

2. Changes in oil inventories

Inventory is a buffer between supply and demand and plays a positive role in stabilizing oil prices. The inventory level of oecd has become the vane of international oil price, and the influence of commercial inventory on oil price is obviously stronger than that of conventional inventory. When the futures price is much higher than the spot price, oil companies tend to increase commercial inventory, stimulate the spot price to rise and reduce the spot price difference of futures; When the futures price is lower than the spot price, oil companies tend to reduce commercial inventory, and the spot price drops, forming a reasonable price difference with the futures price.

3. Intervention in the market by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the International Energy Agency

OPEC controls most of the world's excess oil production capacity, and iea has a large amount of oil reserves, which can change the market supply and demand pattern in a short time, thus changing people's expectations of oil price trends. The main policy of OPEC is to limit production and protect prices and reduce prices to protect production. The 26 member countries of iea * * * control a large amount of oil stocks to deal with emergencies.

4. Short-term capital flows in the international capital market

Since the 1990s, the international oil market has been characterized by a significant increase in the influence of the futures market, and now a price formation mechanism has been formed from the futures market to the spot market. Although speculation in the international crude oil market is not the inducement of oil price rise, due to the lack of investment opportunities in the global financial market, a large amount of funds will enter the international commodity market, especially the crude oil market, which will inevitably push up the international oil price and seriously deviate from the fundamentals.

5. Exchange rate changes

Relevant research shows that there is a weak correlation between oil price changes and exchange rate changes between the US dollar and major international currencies. Due to the continuous depreciation of the US dollar, the real income of petroleum products priced in US dollars declined, which led the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to maintain the high price of crude oil as a response.

6. Abnormal climate

Many countries in Europe and America use oil as heating fuel. Therefore, when the climate changes abnormally, it will cause short-term changes in the demand for fuel oil, thus driving the price changes of crude oil and other petroleum products. In addition, abnormal weather may cause damage to oil production facilities, lead to supply interruption, and then affect oil prices.

7. Changes in interest rates

In the standard non-renewable resource model, the increase of interest rate will lead to the decrease of future mining value relative to current mining value, so the mining path will be convex to the present and far away from the future. High interest rate will reduce capital investment, leading to a smaller initial mining scale; High interest rates will also increase the capital cost of alternative technologies, leading to a decline in mining speed.

8. Tax policy

Government intervention will make the market consumption curve convex to the present or the future. The tax effect of intertemporal oil exploitation mode depends on the present tax value that changes with time. For example, with the passage of time, the reduction of the present value of tax will change the decision of mining order. Compared with no taxation, taxation will eventually reduce the net income at any time, and will also reduce the mining enthusiasm in the corresponding period. In addition, taxes will reduce the return on investment of newly discovered reserves.