I. Introduction to training
Eight companies, iron and steel companies A and B, automobile companies A and B and household appliances companies A, B, C and D, conduct market-oriented operations under the leadership of the government, and take the annual profit and loss as the measure of enterprise management.
The initial state of the company: 1 production line, with a value of 1 100 million yuan, cash 1 0.45 billion yuan, 20,000 tons of steel, with a value of1100,000 yuan, 2-year accounts receivable of 0.5 billion yuan, 2-year loans of 0.4 billion yuan (interest rate of 6%) and 3-year loans of 0.6 yuan.
Division of responsibilities: General Manager: Wei Jiahong Production Director: Wendy Wang Finance Director: Wang Xi Marketing Director: Wang Mei Assistant General Manager: Wang Xueting.
Deputy Chief Financial Officer: Wang
Two. Macroeconomic policy analysis (third year)
I. Economic indicators of the previous year
Two. This year's economic environment
When the current government succeeded the previous government, due to the expansionary fiscal policy and irrational pricing of enterprises, the CPI dropped, the income of enterprises decreased, the GDP declined instead of increasing, the economic situation was depressed, and the total loanable funds of the government decreased. In order to avoid the fiscal deficit, the current government decided not to increase government procurement. Last year's fiscal deficit: 0
Estimated total amount of loanable funds (ten thousand yuan): 26,720 estimated domestic consumption (ten thousand yuan): 73,469 spot price of imported steel (ten thousand yuan/ten thousand tons): 7,300 futures price of imported steel (ten thousand yuan/ten thousand tons): 6,800 highest selling price of automobiles (ten thousand yuan/vehicle): 15.50 highest selling price of household appliances (ten thousand yuan)
Three. Comparison of economic indicators
Four. The current government's economic measures
1, tight monetary policy
In the second year of government implementation, the actual CPI was -3.28%, and we predicted that the market CPI index would rise, which was set at 1%, and there would be inflation risk. In order to stabilize prices, we decided to raise the loan interest rate to 6%, increase the cost of corporate loans, reduce the amount of loans, and reduce the demand for money, thus reducing the amount of money in circulation and stabilizing prices.
2. Expanded fiscal policy
We reduce the value-added tax to 16% and the income tax to 2 1%, which can stimulate enterprises to expand production and achieve the goal of increasing the gross national product. Government subsidies have not changed compared with last year.
3. Land auction
According to the tight monetary policy and the expanding fiscal policy, the expansion of production will increase the demand for land, so the land supply will be increased by 300 mu. 4. Salary
According to the labor supply curve, people will cherish their leisure time more when their wages are raised to a certain extent. Therefore, when wages reach a certain height and continue to increase, people's labor supply will decrease rather than increase, because the minimum wage will increase from the first year to the second year, so the salary in the second year is likely to be the turning point of the curve, so the salary will not change.
Verb (abbreviation of verb) Analysis on the completion of economic indicators this year and the reasons for its failure.
1. Completion of economic indicators this year
After one year in power, only the CPI growth rate of our government has basically reached, and the other three points: GDP growth rate, unemployment rate and personal total income growth rate are far from reaching.
2. Reasons for failure to achieve
(1) Reasons for the decline of GDP
In this year, the government purchase was zero, which did not stimulate the growth of GDP; Government income tax dropped to 2 1%, but the unemployment rate increased by 2.53%, personal income decreased, and inflation reduced personal consumption and GDP. In the third year, the lowest interest rate stipulated by the government was 6%. The high interest rate made it impossible for enterprises to expand their production scale, so the 300 mu of land provided by the government was not rented out. (2) The reasons for the rising unemployment rate.
The minimum wage of the labor force this year is the same as that of the previous year of 90,000 yuan, and the average wage of each enterprise is 98,750 yuan, which is relatively lower than that of the previous year. Because? Price rigidity? Leading to an increase in unemployment. (3) the reasons for the decrease of personal total income
This year's unemployment rate has increased by 2.53% compared with the previous year; In the third year, the average wage of enterprises was 98,750 yuan, and in the second year, the average wage of enterprises was 654,380+0.2 million yuan, and the wage level dropped greatly this year. The unemployment rate rises and the wage level falls, resulting in a decrease in personal income.
The policy harvest of intransitive verbs this year and the policy suggestions for the next government
During the current administration, there are still many shortcomings. Here we make the following analysis and suggestions:
1 How to stabilize CPI
This year, the average price increase of CPI index actually reached 1.87%, and the macro target of CPI index predicted by the current government basically reached. It is suggested that the next government should appropriately adjust government expenditure and raise the minimum wage to stabilize the CPI index.
2. How to improve GDP
The current government adopts a loose fiscal and monetary policy. Government purchase is zero; Government income tax drops but personal income drops; Inflation reduces household consumption; Enterprises did not expand the scale of production, resulting in a decline in GDP. It is suggested that the next government adopt a loose monetary policy of lowering interest rates to stimulate enterprises to expand production scale, and a loose fiscal policy of increasing government purchases (such as issuing government bonds) and reducing value-added tax and income tax.
3. How to reduce the unemployment rate
The minimum wage this year is still 90,000 yuan. At the same time, enterprises have reduced their salaries, and the unemployment rate has risen this year due to price rigidity. It is suggested that the next government raise the minimum wage to stimulate enterprise production. While increasing GDP, we should increase the demand for labor and increase employment by increasing production.
4. How to increase the per capita gross income
The unemployment rate rose last year, and the average wage of enterprises fell, which led to a decline in personal income. It is suggested that the next government raise the minimum wage and encourage enterprises to increase investment in advertising and management fees.
Summarize the government's suggestions
Reduce the interest rate to 5%, increase government procurement, keep the value-added tax unchanged, reduce the income tax to 15%, keep the government subsidy rate unchanged at 6%, and raise the minimum wage to 654.38 million yuan.
3. Microeconomic analysis (taking the second year as an example)
First, the government's macro policy
2. Market demand of household appliances
According to the labor input and output of home appliance enterprises, the output curve of home appliance manufacturers can be obtained:
y = -0.0085x^2+7.4235x-2 19.99
(1) price? demand curve
Factors affecting the demand curve of household appliances: income, consumer preferences, expectations, prices of related commodities, number of buyers, etc. From the demand curve, the demand curve is inclined to the lower right, that is, the demand and price change inversely. The higher the price, the less the demand.
ed=？
? Quiet plasma (quiet plasma)
? = 1.27 according to the price and demand, the price arc elasticity of household appliances demand is 1.27, ed >；; 1 Therefore, household appliances are elastic, that is, demand is sensitive to price changes. For ed>'s flexible goods of 1, lowering the price will increase the sales income of the manufacturers, so the home appliance manufacturers should implement price reduction measures.
(2) The influence of advertising fees on the total demand of household appliances.
As can be seen from the chart, how much do home appliance manufacturers spend on advertising? Demand is a curve inclined to the upper right, showing a positive correlation, that is, the more investment in advertising costs, the greater the total demand for household appliances.
(3) The influence of government subsidies on the total demand of household appliances.
Government subsidies? The demand curve is a curve inclined to the upper right, indicating that government subsidies are positively related to the total demand of household appliances, that is, the more government subsidies, the greater the total demand of household appliances. Second, the equal income curve
In the case of constant technical level, to achieve a certain output of household appliances, the influencing factors are: the increase in the number of workers, overtime pay and the expansion of production line scale.
Third, the cost of home appliance manufacturers.
Product cost can be divided into fixed cost and variable cost. Fixed costs are management fees, land and factory rents,
Interest, variable cost consists of salary, raw material cost, value-added tax and advertising fee. In order to get the maximum profit, the enterprise must reduce the cost, and the fixed cost is stable, so it is necessary to reduce the total cost by reducing the variable cost, such as wages and raw material costs.
(1) labor force
According to the total supply of wages and labor, the following curve can be obtained.
By labor wages? As can be seen from the supply curve, it is a curve inclined to the upper right, indicating that wages are positively related to the total supply of labor, that is, the higher wages, the greater the total supply of labor.
However, the cost of wage increase will also increase, so it is necessary to find a balance point, which can not only recruit the workers needed by enterprises, but also allow enterprises not to increase redundant variable costs.
This requires enterprises to accurately calculate how much labor is needed to produce the corresponding output, so as to quote the corresponding wage pricing to bid for enough labor.
The following labor force can be obtained from the relevant data of our enterprise? Yield curve
With the constant technical level, with the increase of labor force, the output of household appliances will increase in a certain proportion, but the range of output growth, that is, marginal products will increase first and then decrease with the increase of labor force. According to the market demand curve, the enterprise roughly obtains the change of demand, thus setting the production quantity and obtaining the required labor force according to the production quantity.
However, the labor force in marginal product is decreasing. After increasing the labor force to a certain extent, the income brought by marginal products is far less than the increased cost of increasing the labor force. Therefore, in this case, we can choose to work overtime, or improve a productivity to get more output.
(2) the variable cost of household appliances (assuming that the labor wage 1.2 million, steel 65 million/ton)
Four. Analysis of fund bidding
1. government interest rate and enterprise loan ceiling: the government interest rate is 5% this year, and the interest rate was 6% last year, down 1%. The company's loan ceiling is 8150,000 yuan.
2. The company's planned capital demand: 1.74 billion yuan (planned investment in advertising fee is 6 million yuan+salary is 65,438 yuan+09 million yuan+steel is 70 million yuan+interest is 65,438 yuan+0,800 yuan+government management fee is 2,000 yuan+storage fee is 65,438 yuan +000 yuan+due repayment is 4,000 yuan).
5. Decision-making error analysis: the advertising cost is too high, the advertising effect is overestimated, and the product pricing is too high, resulting in a decrease in orders.
Five. Analysis of short-term cost curve and production curve
According to the short-term total output curve, production is in the first stage, and the output increases with the increase of labor force. It is suggested to increase labor input and push production into the second stage. According to the total cost curve, the total cost increases with the increase of output. Due to the law of diminishing marginal income, the marginal cost of marginal products will become larger and larger after they enter the stage of diminishing, and the scale should be adjusted to reduce the cost.
Market structure of intransitive verbs
I. Perfect competition (first year)
1, the condition of completely competitive market
First of all, there are a large number of buyers and sellers in the market.
Second, the goods provided by every manufacturer in the market are completely homogeneous. Third, all resources are completely mobile. Fourth, the information is complete.
As one of the four major home appliance enterprises in the market, our company was in a state of complete competition in the first year of simulation. In this state, the situation of all home appliance enterprises is the same, and there is no competition between them, whether it is loans, raw materials, prepayments or product prices.
2. Background
In the first year, the whole market was in a state of complete competition. Take four home appliance companies as an example. Because the market has the same pricing in terms of product prices, advertising fees, wages, etc. There is no competition among the four home appliance companies, and the average profit of the four companies can only be120,000.
3. The demand curve of perfectly competitive manufacturers
Second, imperfect competition (second, third and fourth years)
1, forming the background
Since the second year, the government has been implementing expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, which objectively reduced the production costs of enterprises. However, due to the imperfect competition in the whole market, the competition among industries is becoming more and more fierce. Take the home appliance industry as an example. Home appliance enterprises began to monopolize the competitive market from the second year. In this state, companies apply for loans, book steel products, quote product prices and set advertising fees, and get corresponding orders here. At the same time, each company decides whether to increase land, the sale of production lines, the number of workers and the formulation of wages, which together determine the company's final profit.
2. Monopoly competition
Monopoly competitive market is a market organization where many manufacturers produce and sell the same different products. In this market state, the products of various e-commerce companies are different, the cost curve and demand curve between companies are different, and the profits are different.
3. The demand table and curve of monopoly competitors.
4. Short-term equilibrium of monopoly competitors
In the short term, monopoly competitors can realize the equilibrium condition of MR=SMC by adjusting the output and price under the existing production scale. Take home appliance company as an example, the variable cost of home appliance company (salary+raw material cost):
Take the company's third year as an example (the unit price of traction power is 6.5438+million, and the unit price of steel is 67 million): when the single-line output is 6.5438+0.2 million units, 280 people are needed, the labor wage is 28 million, and the steel procurement cost is 89 million, that is, 6.5438+010.7 million.
Four. Summary and reflection of sand table
In this sand table experiment, every decision of our group made use of the relevant economic knowledge of western economics to a certain extent, such as cost curve, output curve, production curve and so on. This effectively improves the rationality of decision-making, and enables our company to achieve a profit of 3 1 10,000 after four years of operation. But there are also many unreasonable places in this process. In the past four years, our company has adhered to the principle of small-scale operation, but it is very dull.
Everyone borrows 100 million yuan from the government every year, which leads to an increase in the interest cost of loans every year, which in turn leads to a decline in net profit. In terms of product pricing, the second and fourth years are unreasonable, which is also the consequence of not making reasonable decisions. In the fourth year, due to the wrong capacity decision, the labor force overpaid10 million yuan, thus reducing the net profit in the fourth year.
In this experiment, team members have a strong sense of team, and everyone has a clear responsibility. Although there are minor contradictions, they have all been resolved one by one and are moving towards our goal. I believe that everything gained in this sand table experiment will be of great help to our future study and life.
Finally, I want to sum up: I don't think about whether I can succeed or not. Since I chose the distance, I only care about hardships!