For growers, cotton price is the most important concern.
The price of cotton this year will be much higher than in previous years. The following small series will take you to see why cotton will rise sharply and the cotton price forecast in 2020.
At present, cotton period and spot are on the rise, but at present, focusing on the downstream demand side, the pessimistic decline mentality of yarn and grey fabric still exists, and the actual demand has not improved significantly. Yarn enterprises and terminal grey cloth must have doubts. Why does cotton rise? In fact, there is a lot of evidence of cotton price increase. Let's list them.
1. There is good news about the trade dispute. According to market sources, the United States will sign a large-scale comprehensive trade agreement with it on June 5438+1October 65438+May.
American cotton rose to around 70 cents, driving Zheng Mian.
In addition, under the premise that the trade environment is expected to improve, the export of terminal textiles is also expected to improve.
2. The high price limit of the national cotton reserve rose continuously, and entered the sixth week this week, with the daily limit of 13869, up by 550, or 4. 13%, compared with the previous week.
Even with such an increase, the intention of cotton trading is still not high, even for seven consecutive days, which reflects that suppliers have better shipping options than purchasing and storage, or futures trading, or spot trading.
3. Cotton production reduction has been implemented. According to the cotton output data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the cotton output in 20 19 was 5.889 million tons, which was 210.3 million tons lower than that in 20 18, with a decrease of 3.5%.
Among them, Xinjiang's cotton output was 5.002 million tons, a decrease of 108 million tons or 2 1% compared with the previous year.
Although there are still more than10.7 million tons of imported resources in 20 19, the proportion of cotton inventory consumption has obviously decreased at present.
Simply put, although the supply is not tight, the supply pressure is not as great as in previous years.
Cotton has been consolidating at the bottom for a long time. Based on this news and technical foundation, a large amount of funds will flow into the main force of Zheng Mian futures, which will amplify the income. At present, it has stood at the 4000 mark, and the capital inflow is still large. Zheng Mian's main contract in 2005 rose from 13300 around Christmas to 14270, coveted the annual line.
With the processing of Xinjiang ginning factory coming to an end, ginning factory is in the state of selling lint or even selling out; Processing in Shandong, Hebei and other places in the mainland is still relatively concentrated. Before and after the traditional Spring Festival, local cotton farmers sold more actively. Longzhong information research shows that the price of tertiary seed cotton in Shandong has reached 3.33 yuan/kg, up 0.08 yuan/kg; The price of seed cotton in Hebei increased from 3. 15 yuan/kg to 3.20 yuan/kg, up by 0.05 yuan/kg. In addition to rising prices, some ginning mills even grabbed the harvest, and more than 80% of ginning mills were optimistic about the lint market after the holiday.
The rising price of seed cotton will undoubtedly provide strong cost support for lint prices in Shandong and Hebei.
Generally speaking, whether the downstream yarn enterprises accept it or not, the price increase of cotton has been stepped on their feet, and the idea of yarn enterprises purchasing high-quality and cheap raw materials has been difficult to realize.
Cotton price forecast in 2020. In 2020, the national cotton storage and storage inventory may be low, and the policy of collecting, throwing and storing may be adjusted.
Therefore, it is expected that the spot price of cotton will fluctuate within a narrow range in the first half of 2020, or it will be 15500- 16200 yuan/ton.
In the second half of the year, there is room for a sharp rise in prices, and the high point may reach 1.7 million yuan/ton.
Due to the shortage of land and water resources, the cost of land circulation and utilities will continue to rise in the future, and the cost of cotton planting in Xinjiang will continue to increase.
At present, mechanization has been completely realized in northern Xinjiang, but 40-50% of harvest in southern Xinjiang has not been realized, so there is still room for improving mechanization and reducing labor costs.
In addition, if the seed quality and field management level continue to improve, the yield per unit area may still be greatly improved and the cost per unit output will also be reduced.
However, in the context of macroeconomic downturn, it is difficult to boost cotton prices, and the compression of cotton planting income will become the norm in the past year or two.
It is not optimistic to predict the cotton price in 2020, but the market is unpredictable. At present, the demand for cotton at home and abroad is still relatively large, which also determines the planting scale of cotton. If the cotton yield is high next year, the price may be lower, and if the yield is low, the price will rise.
The above is the cotton information in 2020 provided by Bian Xiao. I hope the above information can help you.