1, Heilongjiang Jiusan Oil, Yihai Grain and Oil, Dalian Huanong, Dalian Jinshi, Beijing Huifu and other large oil companies, local oil plants in Heilongjiang Province, and oil companies in North China and Northeast China that rely on domestic soybean crushing have not yet purchased a large number of soybeans. At present, the oil enterprises in Heilongjiang Province, headed by Jiusan Oil, have basically run out of soybean stocks. In the next step, these enterprises will definitely enter the soybean market to purchase. They can buy it at a low price, but they can't keep it for a long time.
2. According to our tracking of the import cost of American soybeans, although the CBOT soybean futures in the United States have been falling recently, the cost of American soybeans to China port is actually increasing due to the rising sea freight and the firm spot basis, and the American market is not easy to fall deeply around 500 cents, which may be close to the seasonal bottom.
At present, the cost of American beans arriving in Hong Kong is about 2770 yuan/ton. If Heilongjiang soybeans fall to 2200 yuan/ton, the price difference between them will reach 500-600 yuan/ton. Excluding the reasonable price difference of 150-200 yuan/ton, purchasing domestic soybeans is 300-400 yuan/ton cheaper than purchasing imported soybeans, and the crushing profit is also higher. Once the spot price of soybeans in Heilongjiang fell to 2200 yuan.
3. Farmers in Heilongjiang Province are generally reluctant to sell. Judging from the farmers' mentality, in the past two years, when they first entered the market, all the soybeans were sold at reduced prices. Therefore, farmers are reluctant to sell this year. From our communication with the following farmers and a large number of farmers' telephone calls, we know that many farmers are "not short of money" because of the sharp increase in the prices of agricultural products last year and the purchase price of rice this year (at present, the purchase price of rice in various regions is as high as 0.75-0.8 yuan/kg, while it was only 0.5 yuan/kg in the same period last year). As in previous years, they don't have to sell soybeans as soon as they harvest them to repay their loans. Many farmers ask, can I last until next year? Can I make a bet? 1.2 yuan/kg above, farmers are still selling soybeans. If the price falls below 1. 1 yuan/kg, farmers will choose to continue to hold soybeans. Farmers' reluctance to sell is not the decisive factor of price rebound, but it will have an important impact on prices.
4. Although the agricultural tax was abolished in Heilongjiang and other provinces this year, due to the rising prices of agricultural materials such as chemical fertilizers, diesel oil and seeds, and the widespread aphid diseases in Heilongjiang this year, farmers increased their investment in pesticides. Generally speaking, the cost of planting soybeans this year has increased a lot compared with last year, which will also limit the decline of soybeans.
5. "Cheap beans hurt farmers". Although soybean has been fully integrated into the market economy, the price rise and fall is completely determined by the market, but the national policy on increasing farmers' income will not let soybean prices fall back to the level of previous years. The United States protects the purchase price of soybeans for farmers, and the China government will allow the soybean price to fall below 2,000 yuan/ton?
Of course, this year's sharp increase in global soybean production and relatively weak demand are the basic reasons for the current decline in soybean prices, and there will be no fundamental change in the short term, but soybean prices will not continue to fall and will not be bottomless. After all, there is a serious shortage of domestic demand for soybeans, and the Northeast Oil Plant will rely on domestic soybeans. Once the above factors change, domestic soybean prices will stop falling and rebound. We expect the time to be around 1658. (Yisheng Information)