The price of commemorative banknotes has been maintained at around 1000 yuan. Although it has soared by 1000 times, the current transaction is light and the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.

From 10 yuan to 1000 yuan, will the Olympic commemorative banknotes plummet after soaring? On August 8, after the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games, can the stamps for the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games also go out of the market?

Among all the Olympic collections, Olympic commemorative banknotes and Olympic stamps can be regarded as the varieties with the largest number of participants, but for the market outlook, industry experts say they are not optimistic.

Olympic commemorative banknotes fell at a high level.

Although the Olympic commemorative banknotes have dropped from the highest 1.25 yuan/sheet to 1.000 yuan/sheet, they are still the most popular varieties in the current Olympic collection market.

Song Jie (a pseudonym) of Lugong postal currency card market still remembers that on July 8, before the bank outlets started selling Olympic commemorative banknotes, the futures prices in the market had already appeared. At that time, the futures price of an Olympic commemorative banknote was 200 yuan.

From 10 yuan to 200 yuan, the premium is 20 times, which has not been seen in the postal currency card market for a long time, and Song Jie is not shocked. Buyers in the market, especially those dealing in commemorative coins, are also "positive" about this exciting variety.

Unexpectedly, on the first day of issuance, the futures price in 200 yuan was immediately refreshed, and the transfer price in 600 yuan was transferred out on the same day. The next day, the price continued to climb, falling from 800 yuan to 700 yuan and rising to 1 ,000 yuan in 900 yuan, and finally reaching 1, 250 yuan.

It is reported in the market that a large commemorative coin wholesaler has got seven stacks of commemorative banknotes, one of which is 100. According to the highest price at that time, it was worth 875,000 yuan. According to industry insiders, such large families often go to the next home after they have the next home. Many buyers are high-ranking, but now they are all quilted.

After visiting the postal currency card market, the reporter found that there are about hundreds of commemorative banknotes on the counters of many buyers, but the number of commemorative banknotes in the real market is unknown. These speculators said that they have always been skeptical about whether the circulation of commemorative banknotes is 6 million.

At that time, a commemorative banknote published online was numbered "10000009". Does this mean that the circulation exceeds 100000? The reporter learned from the People's Bank of China that the initial printing volume was 10 million. However, due to the high demand for printing technology and high error rate, the final issue is indeed 6 million.

The transaction of Olympic commemorative coins was light.

At present, the price of Olympic commemorative banknotes has been maintained at around 1000 yuan. Although it has soared by 1000 times, judging from the current trading situation, it is relatively cold and the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Yin Min, an expert in investment and collection, said that the Olympic commemorative coins were fried too high, far exceeding their due value.

"With the approach of the Olympic Games, there are many sayings about Olympic commemorative banknotes in the market. It is generally believed that the price of commemorative banknotes will fall after the Olympic Games, which makes some Tibetan friends who want to buy commemorative banknotes choose to wait. On the other hand, the collection market is difficult to predict. After all, the circulation of commemorative banknotes is too small. If the market demand is still large after the Olympic Games, its price may rise instead of falling, which makes those merchants or Tibetan friends who want to sell commemorative banknotes choose to' wait a little longer'. Therefore, there are too many uncertainties now. "

"In fact, the price of 10 yuan face value Olympic commemorative banknotes has skyrocketed in a short time. In addition to the objective reasons for low circulation, artificial speculation is also an important factor. " An expert on postal currency cards in Lugong Post told reporters that the market may also be waiting for new speculation opportunities, and the "hands-on" behavior between speculators is not ruled out. During the Olympic Games, it is estimated that the market fluctuation of commemorative banknotes will not be too great, and it is more likely to go down.

At present, among the collections of the same kind, there are the Millennium Dragon Banknote issued in 2000 and the commemorative banknote issued in 1999 to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the founding of People's Republic of China (PRC). The price of the former in the collection market is 330 yuan, with a face value of 100 yuan and a circulation of 100 million. The latter is currently priced in 60 yuan, with a face value of 50 yuan and a circulation of 60 million. These two varieties have also dropped from the high position in 480 yuan and 88 yuan to the present price.

Olympic stamps fell by 65% from a high level.

Compared with Olympic commemorative banknotes, the downturn of Olympic stamps has lasted for more than three months.

"The price increase of Olympic stamps was mainly between 2006 and 2007, and then it was in a downturn, and it began to fall from April to May. The Olympic mascot mini-pane fell from the highest position of 140 yuan to 50 yuan, the Olympic glue from the highest position of 240 yuan to 82 yuan, and the Olympic emblem from the highest position of 186 yuan to 6 1 yuan. " Ma Lianhong, who is familiar with the postal market.

The market has been looking forward to the opening ceremony stamps issued at the same time as the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games. Because this stamp issue is extremely confidential, there are not many elements that can be mastered in the market, but the Olympic postal market sector expects that this stamp issue will bring considerable market.

Industry insider Baomu said that it may be difficult for the Olympic postal market to have a big market. Since the price of the "Olympic emblem and mascot" sticker mini-pane plummeted in mid-June, the trend of the entire Olympic plate has gone from bad to worse, and 1 month has been in a state of "falling endlessly". The Olympic stamps issued some time ago have all fallen. For example, the prices of the "Sydney Olympic Games" sheetlet and the two-person sheetlet dropped to 4.6 yuan and 3 1 yuan respectively. The price of the "Athens Olympic Games" sheetlet fell back to 29 yuan; "Successful Olympic bid" mini ticket dropped to around 20 yuan; "Looking forward to the Olympics" to commemorate the postage prepaid film can not escape the fate of decline, the current price is near 5 yuan.

Ma Lianhong said that the adjustment of the stamp issuance plan of the State Post Bureau actually increased the circulation and put upward pressure on the market in the second half of the year.

It is reported that the State Post Bureau cancelled the original stamps of Dragon and Tiger Mountain, Three Rivers Source and Foreign Musicians. Four sets of stamps were newly issued, namely Airport Construction, Asia-Europe Summit, 50th Anniversary of CCTV and State Grid Construction.

In fact, one of the main reasons behind the downturn of the Olympic postal market can be found, that is, the circulation of Olympic stamps in China is too large, and the circulation of the emblem alone is as high as 20 million; Secondly, there are too many kinds of stamps. In 2008 alone, there were 25 sets of 65 official stamps. Plus the stamps and unofficial stamps issued in previous years, the number is countless.

"On the other hand, the postal market, like the stock market, is also expected to cash in. Before the Olympics, the market often warned, and now the market as a whole is relatively cold. " Ma Lianhong said. (Financial Weekly)