In 23 years, from LME to COMEX, Jiang Yudong only made electrolytic copper. He tried to give up briefly, but he never gave up.
Only Dache can understand it.
However, the wealth of youth is always short-lived. He broke the position after earning 6 million with the principal of 6.5438 million, and broke the position after earning 8 million with the principal of 400,000. What is fresh in my memory is the "Sumitomo incident" that made him fall from the peak to the bottom.
In the early 1990s, Sumitomo Trading Company trader "Mr.five" (named for its frequent control of more than 5% of the trading volume and open contracts in the London copper market)-Binzhongnan artificially raised the copper price by controlling the warehouse receipts of LME copper for a long time, which made the copper price of LME soar from 1650 USD/ton to a high of 3075 USD/ton. Later, a large number of international funds and European and American traders,
"At that time, I had a lot of orders in my hand. I felt very happy when I started to skyrocket, but I couldn't bear to lighten up when I faced a plunge. After all, I am still young, so I am not as good as a veteran. I don't have an intuitive understanding and enough sensitivity to copper prices. In the end, I lost more than 6 million yuan and still owed more than 300,000 yuan to the futures company, but I had no choice but to mortgage the house. " Jiang Yudong recalled bitterly that the huge losses at that time left his family president in a discordant atmosphere for a long time, and the cruel reality seemed to give him a slap in the face.
After stepping on the peak of life many times, it ended in an explosion. This ups and downs made Jiang Yudong extremely sad. After leaving the futures market in despair, he began to sell cars, but he never did well. "May be suddenly fell from a very high place, the heart is biased. I've been adjusting for years Until 2005, I felt that non-ferrous metals were going to enter the bull market before returning to the spot industry and starting to trade one or two hands of copper with wages. "
While doing sales, let Jiang Yudong always pay attention to the trend of the disk. "Because the copper spot market is very common to use the futures price to increase the premium to run the spot price, I judge according to the change of the spot price, when the demand rises again and when the market falls again, it will be very hot." But what makes Jiang Yudong helpless is that according to this logic, his futures trading still has gains and losses, and there is not much improvement.
The omen of the Great Enlightenment came from the subprime mortgage crisis that broke out in 2008. "In the past, I judged the market price according to the quality of demand and the size of inventory. Later, it was found that it was backwards. Futures prices began to fall, but there was still no demand in the market. If prices continue to fall, demand will rise. I gradually realized that the original demand and inventory can't determine the futures price. On the contrary, futures prices determine demand and inventory. " This time, Jiang Yudong finally realized that it is necessary to put aside most of the spot influencing factors. Good demand at this time does not mean that next week is still good, and ultimately it depends on the macro trend.
In Jiang Yudong's thinking logic, the market with small capital should obey the market with large capital, and the slow market should obey the sensitive market.
Calm and rational lovers of electrolytic copper futures
For Jiang Yudong, futures trading is a hobby that runs through his daily work and cannot be easily given up. At the beginning of each year, he will invest $200,000 to $300,000 in his external account to trade electrolytic copper. By the end of the year, he will close his position and settle his account rain or shine. If you lose everything, you won't feel bad, you won't be persistent, and you won't affect your family life; If you win, it will be regarded as the market's affirmation of your energy and hard work for one year. This started in 2009, and he called it a "smooth sailing" model. Every year, doubling his external account is the basic performance. In the best year, the principal can be tripled. Slowly, this has become a pattern that he firmly believes. If there is no accident, it will continue to grow old.
Why only trade copper? Jiang Yudong faintly responded: "From futures to spot, I have been making copper for more than 20 years, and I have already realized my own set of methods. In the non-ferrous metal market, the variety of copper is more rational and difficult to manipulate. Fundamentals are not the key factors to determine prices, but capital games are. Compared with aluminum and zinc, copper fluctuates back and forth more frequently. "
1992, Jiang Yudong started trading copper in LME. Later, because the premium was quoted by foreign institutions when the LME contract was rescheduled, he chose to switch to COMEX.
"No matter what you do, capital preservation is the key. COMEX contracts are continuous and have a long trading cycle. There is only one hour's rest in 24 hours a day. If there is any unexpected situation, I can close my position at any time. " He told reporters that the futures market is a leveraged market dominated by small businesses, and investment must be free from any burden in order to be free from psychological pressure. When necessary, he rationally "cut positions", but conservative promotion does not mean that he has no passion and maximizes the value of this small fund. Man Cang's operation is his style.
The transaction goes smoothly every year, but Jiang Yudong's trading logic is really simple-stand higher.
From the beginning of the year, the long-term trend of copper for a whole year is judged according to the macro aspect. When it is in line with the fundamental situation, we will place an order in one direction, short when the economy is bad, turn around when the market is bullish, and immediately close the position. Everything is dominated by macro aspects. On the one hand, when the market situation evolves as expected, he will increase his position with book profits; On the other hand, when the loss of account funds approaches the principal line, he will decisively close the position and rest to observe and understand before placing an order. If he touches the principal line three times in a year, he will stop trading the rest of the time.
Since 2009, Yudong has rarely lost money to the principal line. At the beginning of this year's firm competition, the principal of his guidance account was about $200,000, and after the competition, the profit was about $600,000. Based on all the indicators, the account he directed won the fourth place in the second global derivatives firm competition.
As a veteran of copper trading for many years, Jiang Yudong finally concluded in an interview: "The China factor affects the price of copper, but it is foreign capital that determines the price of copper. In the past ten years, every festival in China is bound to change, and Man Cang is prone to explosion. It's best to close your position before going on holiday. After all, futures are futures and life is life. "
The futures market is a leveraged market with small scale and large scale. If you invest money, you must let yourself have no burden in order to get rid of psychological pressure. When necessary, you can rationally "cut the warehouse with a knife", but conservative promotion does not mean that there is no passion. You can maximize the value of this small fund. Man Cang's operation is his style.