This week, oil prices hit the biggest weekly decline in the second half of the year. WTI crude oil fell 1 1.20% to 7 1.02 USD/barrel, the lowest closing price since 65438+February 20th last year. Brent crude oil fell 1 1.06% to 76. 10 USD/barrel, the lowest since 65438+February 24th last year.
In the news, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that Russia will not export oil to countries that impose price limits on it, and he will sign a decree in the near future to respond to the price limit orders of western countries.
Putin said that the price ceiling set by the G7 will not have any negative impact on the Russian budget, and Russia will not suffer economic losses due to the price limit order, because the threshold of 60 US dollars per barrel is close to the current market price of Russian crude oil. It is estimated that Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) will decrease by 2.9% this year and 0.9% in 2023. Overall, Russia's economic situation will further improve.
Putin stressed that Russia may cut oil production in response to the Group of Seven (G7) practice of setting a price ceiling for Russian oil exports. "I'm not saying this is the decision now, but if necessary, we will consider possible production cuts."
This news caused the international oil price to rise sharply on Friday, and the US oil futures price once rose by 2%. However, it was reported later in the day that Keystone, an important oil pipeline across the United States and Canada, was originally scheduled to be partially restarted this Saturday after it was temporarily closed due to oil pipeline leakage on Thursday. As a result, oil prices fell in intraday trading.
Regarding the game between the west and Russia in energy export, Li Jie, a senior researcher in energy and chemical industry of CCB Futures, believes that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine this year has caused the market to worry that the supply of Russian petroleum products may be greatly reduced, but by the end of the third quarter, the decline of Russian supply was relatively limited. 65438+From February 2022, G7 will impose a price ceiling on Russian oil exports, the EU will also impose an embargo on Russian offshore crude oil transportation, and refined oil transportation will also be sanctioned from February 2023. It is expected that Russia's supply will decline slightly and continue to tighten the supply of crude oil.
According to the data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as of the week of 65438+February 6, the net long positions of Brent and WTI crude oil held by speculators decreased by 7232 lots to 267749 lots, a three-year low. The net long position of NYMEXWTI crude oil held by speculators increased by 5688 lots to 17 1277 lots. The net long position of NYMEX gasoline held by speculators fell to a seven-week low of 52,665,438+02 lots, and the net long position of NYMEX diesel fell to a two-month low of 20,706 lots. The net long position of NYMEX natural gas held by speculators dropped to 258,365,438+0 lots, the lowest in the last six weeks.
Talking about the fundamentals of the current crude oil market, Zheng, an energy researcher at Shanghai Securities and Futures, said that on the supply side, US crude oil production increased slightly, maintaining a reduction of 2 million barrels per day, without expanding the current scale of production reduction, and the market was worried about its implementation. The European Union limits the price of oil to Russia to 60 dollars/barrel, which is higher than the current discount price of more than 50 dollars/barrel in Russia, and has little impact on Russian oil supply. On the demand side, the high level of refined oil cracking fell, gasoline cracking was at the normal level in previous years, and the capacity utilization rate of American refineries rebounded seasonally, slightly higher than the same period in previous years. On the demand side, the high level of refined oil cracking fell, gasoline cracking was at the normal level in previous years, and the capacity utilization rate of American refineries rebounded seasonally, slightly higher than the same period in previous years. With the implementation of China's "Ten Articles of New China", the medium-term demand will gradually recover. In terms of inventory, the inventory of commercial crude oil in the United States has fallen sharply, and the inventory of gasoline and distillate oil depots has risen sharply, which has aggravated the market's concern about terminal demand.
Looking ahead to the market outlook, Li Jie said that if China's demand can recover beyond expectations after the second quarter of next year, it is expected to further push up oil prices.
Specifically, according to Li Jie, in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the problem of domestic small and medium-sized oil production capacity will continue to be prominent in 2022, and Saudi Arabia has also indicated the lower limit of tolerance for oil prices. It is expected that OPEC+supply will not increase significantly. If oil prices fall beyond expectations, the possibility of Saudi Arabia tightening supply again will not be ruled out. In 2022, US crude oil production increased slowly. Under the restriction of capital expenditure, it is estimated that the increase in 2023 will be around 800,000 barrels per day. In the second half of 2022, the United States faced enormous inflationary pressure, and the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75bp four times in a row, which put pressure on the prices of crude oil and other commodities. On June 5438+ 10, 2022, the US CPI fell below 8%, and the market's expectation for the Fed to raise interest rates slowed down. If the inflationary pressure falls back as scheduled in the later period, the macro level may get some support. From the perspective of crude oil itself, the increase in demand in 2023 will mainly focus on aviation oil. Regionally, Asia-Pacific and America will continue to lead demand growth. In terms of refining profit, IEA predicts that the new global refining capacity will be 40% more in 2023 than in 2022, which will further alleviate the global shortage of refined oil, especially diesel. It is estimated that the global refining profit center will be close to the average level in 2023. On the balance sheet, although the uncertainty of the economic outlook has dragged down the recovery of demand to a certain extent, the market is still in the pattern of destocking in 2023, driven by OPEC+production reduction.
"On the macro level, the US CPI data will be released next Tuesday, and the Fed's interest rate decision will be held next Thursday. The market expects the Federal Reserve to continue to raise interest rates by 50 basis points, and the economic slowdown and falling demand brought about by the sharp interest rate hike are expected to suppress crude oil prices. Domestic short-term demand may decline, but medium-term demand will gradually recover. Overall, crude oil prices are weak in the short term. " Zheng said to him.
An Yang, head of energy and chemical industry research in haitong futures, believes that the overall performance of bulk commodities has obviously picked up under the background of the weakening of the US dollar, and the domestic industries such as black, nonferrous metals and chemicals have generally picked up under the background of real estate policy support, so the continuous sharp drop in oil prices will not last long. As strong expectations and weak reality gradually recede, the crude oil market is likely to pick up. "From the perspective of supply and demand, there will be no great oversupply pressure in the crude oil market before the first half of 2023, but there is still some uncertainty on the supply side. In particular, the determination of Saudi Arabia and Russia to jointly protect oil prices should not be underestimated. After the oil price plummeted by 30%, the US oil price has been very close to the target price range of the previous US strategic crude oil inventory, and it has already faced certain risks of continuing to be excessively bearish on oil prices. With the venting of pessimism, the oversold repair market may return to the market at any time, and follow-up attention will be paid to the degree of recovery of market confidence. "