After four months of continuous decline, domestic corn has stepped out of the slow cattle market that has risen sharply since March and has risen steadily. Although the increase is not large, the trend is quite stable. Recently, domestic corn continues to rise slightly, mainly due to:

First, corn exports increased substantially in the first half of the year.

According to customs data, China exported 770,000 tons of corn in May this year. From June to May, China's total corn export was 30 1 10,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.05%. The total export volume of corn in Jilin Province exceeded one million tons; From June to May, Heilongjiang exported 565,000 tons of corn, 5.4 times that of last year. The sharp increase in domestic corn exports has eased the domestic supply pressure, making the domestic corn from oversupply to a basic balance between supply and demand. At present, there is even a tight balance between supply and demand, and people's views on the trend of corn have changed from weak to strong. The increase or decrease of export volume is still the main factor affecting the domestic corn price. In the later period, it is still necessary to focus on the export price of corn in major corn exporting countries in the international market such as the United States and Argentina, as well as the demand for corn in major corn importing countries such as Japan, South Korea and Southeast Asia.

Second, the arrival of the breeding season is expected to stimulate price increases.

After entering the summer, the consumption demand of domestic aquaculture generally increased seasonally. At present, it is only two to three months before the peak season of meat, poultry and eggs consumption in the second half of the year, and the peak season of domestic feed and aquaculture has arrived. Recently, the stock of livestock and poultry in most areas of China has increased, and the sales of feed in some areas have rebounded. With the arrival of the breeding peak, the domestic corn stocks will continue to be consumed, the stocks will gradually decrease, and the corn market will continue to fluctuate slightly.

Third, the supply subject is reluctant to sell, and the market supply is tight.

Shanhaiguan: After June every year, the corn stocks in Shandong, Henan, Hebei and other major producing areas will drop to the bottom and the supply will decrease. At present, the number of corn in the hands of farmers in Hebei is decreasing, so they are reluctant to sell it. The supply of corn in Shandong is tightening, and the recent high temperature and hot weather in North China make the power supply very tight. Therefore, the demand for railway transportation of coal is increasing, which increases the cost of grain transportation. The shortage of corn supply in some areas of customs has driven up the price of corn.

Northeast China: With the seasonal decrease of corn supply in customs area, northeast corn has gradually become the protagonist of corn market supply. At present, the corn stocks of farmers in Northeast China have also dropped to a low level. According to the survey, the current corn stock of farmers in Jilin Province is about 10%, that of farmers in Liaoning Province is about 7-9%, and that of farmers in Heilongjiang Province is about 9- 10%. In particular, there are relatively few corn that meet the quality standards along the traffic line, farmers' reluctance to sell still exists, and the grain source flowing into the market is limited, which makes the corn price remain firm. Due to the difficulty in purchasing new grain in producing areas, some grain depots in Jilin are turning over some aged corn grain in Zhengshun City to ease the supply. Insufficient supply will lead to a stronger driving force for the price increase in the producing areas, and the price increase in the producing areas will be gradually transmitted to the sales areas.

4. The climate is unfavorable in the early stage of corn growth, and the market is worried about the yield of new corn.

In June, the precipitation in Huanghuai area of North China was generally less, and the continuous high temperature led to the development of drought in grain fields, which hindered the sowing of corn and affected the growth and development of corn that had emerged to varying degrees. Since July, there has been high temperature and little rain in North China, and rare high temperature weather has appeared in some areas, which is still unfavorable for corn growth. The precipitation weather in Northeast China is constant, and some areas have severe weather such as hail, and the corn in the affected areas is facing no harvest. Due to the continuous rainy weather, the temperature in most parts of Northeast China is low and the accumulated temperature in the field is not enough, which leads to the slow growth of corn seedlings and the prolonged production cycle. In addition, the sowing date is postponed this year, and if there is weather such as early frost in the later period, the yield per unit area of corn will be seriously frustrated.

Affected by the weather, it is estimated that the corn planting area this year is lower than expected, which is roughly the same as last year. Because the weather in all parts of the country was favorable for corn growth last year, corn has achieved an overall increase in production and a bumper harvest. Therefore, if the corn area increases little or even this year, it is unlikely to increase corn production this year, and it is possible to reduce corn production under bad weather conditions, so the corn production situation is relatively conducive to maintaining a relatively high price in the market outlook.

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