Since the second half of 20 10, the consumer price trend of Anhui residents has entered an upward track, breaking through 5% in February of 20 1 1 and reaching the highest point of 7.2% in June, a 35-month high. After that, the rally declined, with a cumulative increase of 5.6% for the whole year, 2.5 percentage points faster than the same period of last year.
I. Operating Characteristics of 20 1 1 Consumer Price
1, the price increase is high in the middle and low at both ends. The year-on-year increase of CPI in our province was 4.2% from 65438+ 10, and then it continued to rise for five months, hitting a new high since August 2008, reaching the highest point of 7.2% in June. Then, due to the reduction of the hikes, the year-on-year growth rate dropped month by month. In February, 1 1 and 12, due to both new price increases and hikes, it rose by 9 months and fell by 2 months from the previous month, which was the same as 1 month. Among them, in March and June,165438+1October, the prices of pork and fresh vegetables decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, while in August, the prices of fresh vegetables and fresh fruits were flat.
2. Eight categories of prices rose by 7 1 down, basically showing an overall upward trend. The prices of eight categories of goods and services rose five times and fell three times in 20 10, rose six times and fell two times in the first half of 2010, and rose seven times and fell one time in the whole year, including May, August, 165438+ 10. Compared with the same period of last year, 20 1 1 year, food category increased by 12.2%, housing category increased by 4.6%, clothing category increased by 4.2%, medical care and personal articles increased by 3.5%, tobacco and alcohol category increased by 3.6%, and household equipment and maintenance services increased by1.
3. The price increase of industrial consumer goods and service items is the highest since the 11th Five-Year Plan. 2011February, the price of industrial consumer goods rose by more than 2% year-on-year, 2.4% for the whole year, and 0.9% month-on-month in April, the highest level since 2006. The price of service items rose by 2.9%, all of which were positive or flat. Both types of increase are the highest points since the 11th Five-Year Plan.
4. The hikes and the new price increase factors account for the same proportion. Among the 5.6% year-on-year increase, the hike effect of last year's price increase was about 2.9 percentage points, and the new price increase factor was about 2.7 percentage points. The rising effect is slightly greater than the new price rising factor.
5. The growth rate in rural areas is higher than that in cities. 20 1 1, the consumer price of urban residents in the province increased by 5.4% year-on-year, and that of rural areas increased by 5.9%, with a difference of 0.5 percentage points. Structurally, the price index of industrial consumer goods in rural areas is higher than that in cities by 1 percentage point, which is the main reason why the total index is higher than that in cities.
6. The cumulative increase is higher than the national average. From February of 20 1 1, the year-on-year increase of CPI in our province began to be higher than the national average, and the ranking in the country kept moving forward, rising from 26th in June to 3rd in June. After July, the ranking also gradually moved back with the decline of the index, which was 0.2 percentage points higher than the national ranking, and the national ranking was 1 1. Tied with Henan for the second place in Central China, East China 1. Judging from the eight categories, the trend of all categories in our province is consistent with that of the whole country, and the growth rate of food, tobacco, alcohol and supplies, clothing, transportation and communication is higher than the national average.
Second, 20 1 1 year Anhui consumer price change factors analysis
(1) Food prices have risen in turn, ranking first among the eight categories. 20 1 1 prices have risen, and food is still the main force of price increase. The upward trend is uneven, with one rising and then rising, resulting in a double-digit increase in food prices for nine consecutive months. 1 In February, the prices of grain, fresh vegetables, fresh fruits and eggs were in a leading position. In the second quarter, pork prices became the leader. In the third quarter, the increase of aquatic products, eggs and oil expanded, and the price of beef and mutton rose in the fourth quarter. Since June, the price increase of 16 food has been negative. Meat and poultry and their products, dried and fresh fruits, grain and oil, eggs, aquatic products, sugar and other seven categories, the monthly increase is more than double digits.
(1) Food prices continued to rise, with an increase significantly higher than in previous years. 20 1 1, affected by the increase of grain purchase price, cost factors and natural disasters in some areas, the increase rate of grain price was faster than that in previous years, and the chain was flat, while the rest increased, with an annual increase of 17.7%, 6.6 percentage points faster than that in the same period of last year. Among them, the price of rice rose the highest, with an increase of 20.2%.
(2) Oil prices rose sharply again. With the increase of soybean price in the international market, the price of edible vegetable oil began to rise again in the second quarter of 20 10. 20 1 1, the price rose month by month, only one month from the previous month was flat, the rest rose, and the annual cumulative increase was 16%.
(3) The prices of meat, poultry and their products were among the top gainers. In February, there was a double-digit increase due to the low price of pork in the base period last year. Since May, the chain has turned from negative to positive, and there has been a new round of increase. In June, the month-on-month increase reached 13.7%, which was close to the highest value since 2007. After 10 months, the growth rate dropped, but it still rose by 38.5% for the whole year, which affected the total index to rise by nearly 1.65438. From the second half of the year, the price of beef and mutton, which was relatively stable in the previous period, began to rise, with the chain ratio of 1 1 and 12 both above 3%, with annual increases of 5.3% and 15.8% respectively. Driven by the increase in meat prices, livestock meat by-products rose by 28.4%, poultry by/kloc-0 by/5.8%, and the prices of meat poultry and products by 24.7%.
(4) Eggs and aquatic products increased significantly. Due to the cost factor and the price comparison effect caused by the price increase of grain, meat and poultry, the prices of eggs and aquatic products increased by 12% and 10.3% respectively. Especially after May, the prices of eggs and aquatic products rose rapidly, among which eggs rose by 6%, 7.3% and 5.3% respectively in May, June and August, and aquatic products rose by 3.5%, 6.5% and 2.3% respectively in May-July, making them the two most prominent varieties after pork.
(5) The price of fresh vegetables fluctuates greatly, and the price of fresh fruits increases greatly. 1-In February, the price of fresh vegetables increased by 9% and 22% month on month, and in June, July, September and June, it increased by 4.4%, 6. 1%, 7.2% and 17.5% respectively. The price of fresh fruit has been rising all the way due to the reduction of production and the increase of cost in the previous year, with an annual increase of 20. 1%, which is second only to meat, poultry and products.
(2) The growth rate of residential category has narrowed, and the degree of influence still ranks second. 20 1 1 year, the house price rose by 5. 1%, which was 0.4 percentage points lower than the same period of last year, and the impact on the total index was nearly 16%, which was also lower than last year. After September, the year-on-year growth rate of each month decreased to less than 5%, and the year-on-year growth rate of 65438+February was only 1.3%, which was the same as that of the previous three months, and the growth rate in the rising month was smaller, which tended to be slower than that in the second half of 20 10. Among them, building and decoration materials, house rent, self-owned houses and water, electricity and fuel increased by 4.3%, 6.4%, 5.6% and 2.6% respectively. The smaller categories with higher increases are: cement growth 18.4%, private rent growth 8.3%, wood growth 10.5%, liquefied petroleum gas growth1.2%, and other fuels growth11.
(3) Industrial consumer goods and services increased. 20 1 1, the price of industrial consumer goods rose by 2.4%, among which clothing, tobacco and alcohol and some daily industrial products were the main rising varieties. Due to the rising prices of raw materials and labor, clothing prices have risen significantly since the beginning of the year, and the impact on the total index is about 0.5 percentage points. Among tobacco and alcohol, liquor increased by 12.7% due to the price increase of high-grade liquor, while Chinese herbal medicines and proprietary Chinese medicines, bedding, personal ornaments, vehicle fuel and spare parts, and building and decoration materials increased greatly. The price of service items rose by 2.9%, driving the overall CPI level to rise by about 0.9 percentage points. Among them, family services, private rentals, taxis, haircuts, bathing, sewing, etc. increased by more than 5%.
Third, 20 1 1 Analysis of the reasons for the increase in consumer prices in Anhui.
20 1 1 The fundamental reason for the rise in consumer prices is the long-term overheating of the economy and the excessive currency. Specifically, it includes short-term factors such as seasonality, festivals and natural disasters, as well as imported inflationary pressure brought by rising labor and raw material costs to downstream products and rising commodity prices in the international market.
1, the price increase of production factors such as raw materials and labor is the main driving force for the price increase. First, the pressure of upstream industrial products and raw materials prices rising to the downstream increases; Second, due to the general increase in crude oil, agricultural labor costs and agricultural materials prices, the production, transportation and operation costs of agricultural products have been greatly pushed up, resulting in an overall increase in agricultural products prices; Third, the rising wages of labor force leads to the continuous rise in the prices of labor-intensive products and services; Fourth, the prices of gold, petroleum, agricultural products, non-ferrous metals and other commodities in the international market continued to rise, and the cost of imported raw materials increased, which directly raised the prices of various related processed products in China and promoted the price increase in related consumption fields.
2. The structural contradiction of the supply of edible agricultural products and the periodic fluctuation of some food prices. The most obvious is the price of pork. Affected by factors such as rising production costs, unstable market prices, reduced retail farming, epidemic situation and lean meat incidents, pork production appeared in the first half of 201/kloc-0, and "three reductions". From 1, the price of pigs continued to rise, with a year-on-year increase of 73.6% in July. The sharp rise in the prices of eggs and aquatic products after May is also related to the relative decrease in supply.
3. The introduction of national macro-control policies directly pushed up the prices of related products. 1. On 20 1 1 year, the state continued to raise the minimum purchase price of wheat and rice, and the price increase of rice was the largest since the implementation of the grain purchase protection price policy in 2004. The sharp increase in the purchase price has correspondingly raised the expectation of rising food prices in the market. Second, the state has implemented a stricter new policy on the real estate market. The landlord's "rental loan" cost has increased, and "purchase restriction" has curbed some housing demand. The booming housing rental market has led to an increase of 10.3% and 8.3% in private rent and estimated price of self-owned housing respectively. Third, the price of refined oil has generally increased. The prices of gasoline and diesel increased by 13.4% and 13.6% respectively. The most direct impact is the obvious increase in transportation and tourism charges.
IV. 20 12 Forecast of Consumer Price Trend in Anhui Province
The trend of 2065 438+02 CPI depends on domestic economic policies and external economic environment. Under normal circumstances, due to the reduction of government-led investment and the cultivation of new economic growth points, the probability of inflation is relatively low, and the price increase of 20 1 1 is relatively high, and the price increase of 20 12 will be alleviated. However, the pressure affecting the price increase will not be eliminated in the short term, and there is still some inflationary pressure at 20 12.
(A) factors affecting the price decline
1. The monetary pressure pushing up prices has eased. The effect of government control measures is becoming more and more obvious. In terms of money supply, the cumulative growth rate of M2 and M 1 1 in 2065438- 10 has dropped to 12.9% and 8.4% respectively, which is close to the historical low of 1650 in the last decade. The loose domestic money supply has been well controlled.
2. The price index of the means of production is also gradually declining. From July of 20 1 1, PPI rose to the highest point 10.7%, and the increase rate dropped month by month. In June, the year-on-year increase of 5438+02 was only 1.9%, and only the chain was positive in the second half of the year. The prices of major industrial production materials such as steel and cement are basically stable, and the upstream and downstream conduction pressure is weakened. At the same time, the deterioration of the international economic environment has weakened the production of China's export industry. Coupled with the continuous decline in domestic industrial growth, the demand for upstream energy and raw materials has declined, which has played a direct role in alleviating inflationary pressures.
3. Europe and the United States were hit by the sovereign debt crisis, and international commodity prices kept fluctuating downward, which also effectively eased the upward pressure on domestic prices. From the perspective of specific commodities, the prices of bulk commodities have declined steadily recently. 65438+ 10, the spot and futures prices of agricultural products in the international market decreased by 4.58% and 8.08% respectively, and the spot and futures prices of industrial production materials decreased by 2.07% and 4.27% respectively.
4. With the further manifestation of the effects of various national policies and measures to support production and regulate the market, the grain will be harvested again in 20 1 1 year, and the supply-demand relationship of main agricultural products such as pigs and vegetables will tend to improve, especially the price of pork. It is expected that the supply will gradually increase after the start of 20 12, so that the pig price will enter an obvious downward track. The rise in food prices has stabilized.
According to the law of periodic fluctuation, this round of price increase is close to the turning point. By 20 1 1 10, the year-on-year increase of consumer price index has been going on for 25 months. According to the law of periodic fluctuation, it is more likely that the increase will tend to fall back.
(B) factors affecting price increases
1, the money stock is still very large. It takes a long time to digest the long-term foreign trade surplus and a large amount of borrowed money around 2009, while the global liquidity surplus caused by the quantitative easing monetary policy implemented by developed economies is still playing a role in China. In addition, the degree of inflation slowdown also depends on the degree of policy relaxation. 20 12 if monetary policy is relaxed, inflation may be higher than expected, especially in the second half of the year.
2. There are still uncertainties in agricultural production, and the foundation for the decline in agricultural product prices is not solid. First of all, compared with non-food prices, food prices have been underestimated for a long time, and there is a need for further increase; Secondly, the decline in the supply of land and agricultural labor is a trend, while the strong demand for agricultural products will not change for a while. If the production efficiency cannot be improved, the contradiction between supply and demand of some agricultural products will exist for a long time; Third, the rising prices of water, electricity and other resources will increase the cost of agricultural production. Therefore, the long-term trend of food prices is rising.
3. The decline of non-food prices is constrained by the rising labor costs. The extraordinary rise in non-food prices in this round of inflation reflects more trend factors such as rising prices of energy, labor and agricultural products. Among them, the labor price increase is "sticky", that is to say, the wage increase is generally difficult to adjust back, which means that the price increase of some industrial consumer goods and services brought about by wage increase is relatively slow, and the withdrawal of 20 12 administrative intervention measures may lead to the supplementary price increase of some commodities restricted in the previous period.
4. Price adjustment of resources and medical care. Since the second half of 20 10, due to the high overall price level, the price increase of water, electricity, gas and other resources has not been involved in the household consumption field. It is understood that the price adjustment of 20 12 above materials will be inevitable. Because it is a basic product, the indirect impact on CPI may be greater than the direct impact, which will drive a series of catering, public services, housing and so on. Some medical fee price reforms are being piloted in some cities in our province, and 20 12 will be implemented in the whole province, which will have a certain impact on CPI.