Recently, I have seen many people say that I am a wizard in a million, and I can make a steady profit without losing money! !
Few people who have come into contact with any industry can be so arrogant as futures trading, because futures trading is a training ground for human nature. In this extremely cognitive field, everyone is limited to his limited understanding of trading.
It is said that there are no more than 65,438+00% people who make long-term stable profits in futures trading.
Actually, there are many variables How long is the long term? How stable is stability? Do not exceed 10%, what is it? In futures trading, except those who are new to the trading industry, in fact, most people know in their hearts whether they are the "stable" people now.
Of course, there are very few players who really understand whether there is so-called stability in the futures market.
I once said that if you want to make a stable profit, you have to have a trading system. What is a trading system? It is a systematic treatment of uncertain trends, which can reduce losses when losing money and earn more when making profits. But what is the core of systematization? This is tracking what you need to profit from system trading. Need a market, need a way out. However, in an era without market, what should we do? wear
Many people choose multi-variety trading, because multi-variety can spread risks and seize the big market of all varieties. If more than 40% of the trading varieties have a certain trend, then his capital curve will inevitably rise. However, what should we do when the market is extremely short of * * * and only a few varieties have unilateral quotes? Can only start to encounter crisis.
Therefore, from 20 10 to 20 16, multi-variety quantitative trading began to languish. Apple, sugar and crude oil have not realized the quantitative trading of these three varieties this year. No matter what cycle you are in, it is basically difficult to achieve greater returns.
The obsession of most multi-variety system traders is that although my profitability depends on the market, the market will fluctuate after all. Just like Livermore said: trading wants to make money, relying on the big market. The same is true for futures. The only opportunity for futures lies in the trend, which lies in the general trend of the whole market. That is, without intervention, the wrong party will fail in a complete general trend, and the big market will eventually collapse due to the lack of one party, and no one can benefit in a longer period of time. Because there is no one-sided speculative market, it will slowly strangle everyone.
Some people say that multi-variety system trading is not feasible, but I will make a long-term stable profit in the future.
I remember once listening to a speech by a famous domestic futures investor, Mr. Qingze, in Dalian. He said: in a few days? I don't believe any day at all.
Can it be stable in one day? The ideal state of a day is to capture the trend of the day through multiple transactions on the same day. Trading 20 times on the same day, maybe 18 times, is a small profit and a small loss, and the profit depends on explosive market only a few times. Intraday trading gains an extremely stable capital curve by releasing risks on the same day. In this ideal state, there is no doubt that the capital capacity must be limited. Because if the amount of funds is infinite and the capital curve can go up and down, wouldn't it kill the market?
Secondly, the requirements for handling fees, liquidity and intraday slippage make it more unstable than quantitative trading. The instability of quantitative trading comes from the lack and incompleteness of market trends. The instability of intraday trading comes from the instability of external factors such as handling fees and liquidity.
When Apple Futures was not listed, Japanese traders were scattered all over the country and had nowhere to live. After the listing of Apple Futures, due to the handling fee policy, the turnover rate reached more than 10, which became a paradise for day traders. Now Apple is dead again, because of all kinds of complaints. Day traders turned to crude oil and fuel oil again. In fact, it should have been like this long ago, and the varieties with strong correlation with the external market are much less likely to be restricted again.
There is a question that everyone should actually think about. How long has it been since you saw a 45-degree upward curve in one day for more than a year?
15 has an extremely powerful day trader, which is said to be quantitative. A few days ago, I watched Weibo ask another person what's the difference between Apple's intraday method and Liba's method ... In fact, there is no difference. At this stage, some people rely on Apple futures to make profits because Apple has a smooth unilateral. I also need intraday fluctuations, and I like a stable market. What if I don't? Have to go through the test. The smaller the cycle, the more fragile it is, and the smaller the level, the more fragile it is. It's hard to talk about stability during the day.
In today's market, only one strategy is the best, which conforms to the "trend" trading idea and can achieve better profit: subjective variety selection trading. Only by choosing the right variety and concentrating most of the funds can we earn enough money to make up for the previous losses. That is to say, in the first half of 20 18, there are two kinds of people who can make more money in futures trading:
Top subjective variety trend traders and short-term lucky ones. The main logic of better profit is to concentrate funds to choose the right variety. However, what if the varieties selected by traders with few varieties do not appear at first? At present, the most profitable person in the market is going to change again.
In other words, it is the market trend, not the subjective choice of traders, that determines which style of people can make better profits at present. The market trend is chaotic and full of uncertainty. Therefore, the trading mode of all traders may be severely tested in an uncertain period of time.
Stable profit? It is not as easy as many people think. Walk on thin ice, keep awe, continue to export your positive earnings expectations, and go forward bravely.