1. Relationship between supply and demand: the relationship between supply and demand determines the trend of oil prices, and the fundamental factors of crude oil supply and demand determine the long-term trend of crude oil prices.
2. Oil inventory: Among the factors that affect the rise and fall of spot crude oil prices, the impact of oil inventory on oil prices is more complicated. When the futures price is much higher than the spot price, oil companies tend to increase commercial inventory and reduce current supply, thus stimulating the spot price to rise and reducing the spot price difference of futures; When the futures price is lower than the spot price, oil companies tend to reduce the commercial inventory and increase the current supply, which leads to the decline of the spot price and a reasonable price difference with the futures price.
3. Oil production cost: As a kind of non-renewable energy, the production cost of oil will affect the intertemporal production allocation decision of producers, thus affecting market supply and indirectly causing oil price fluctuations. The lower limit of the world oil price is generally determined by the oil production in high-cost areas, and the oil in low-cost areas determines the price fluctuation range.
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