The "Biggest Idiot Theory" invented by Keynes. From 1908 to 1914, Keynes taught all kinds of courses: principles of economics, monetary theory, securities investment, etc. He was thus described as "a machine that sells economics by the hour." Keynes's motivation for earning tuition fees was to be able to engage in academic research freely and focused in the future without having to worry about money. However, just by earning class fees, you won’t be able to save much money even if you vomit blood. Keynes finally understood this truth, so in August 1919, he borrowed several thousand pounds to do forward foreign exchange speculation. In just four months, he netted more than 10,000 pounds, which at the time was equivalent to his income from lecturing for 10 years. Speculators often have this experience: the first jump is often a near miss, and the money gets into their pockets inexplicably. Just when he was drifting, he suddenly fell into the abyss. Three months later, Keynes lost all the profits he earned and the principal he borrowed. Gamblers often have this mentality: they want to win back what they lose from the gambling table. Seven months later, Keynes got involved in cotton futures trading, betting wildly and achieving great success. Spurred by this, he made all futures varieties. If it's still not enough, go and speculate in stocks. In more than ten years, he has made a lot of money. By the time he retired due to illness in 1937, he had accumulated a huge amount of wealth that he would never be able to enjoy in his lifetime. Unlike ordinary gamblers, he left a very charming gambling experience to future generations - the Biggest Idiot Theory, which can be regarded as a by-product of his speculative activities. Some people speculate that Keynes may have participated in newspaper beauty pageant prize voting. Otherwise, he would not have used this example: choose the face you think is the most beautiful from 100 photos, and you will get a prize for choosing it. Of course, in the end, the highest number of votes will determine which face is the most beautiful. How should you vote? The correct thing to do is not to choose the face that you really think is beautiful, but to guess who the majority of people will choose and vote for her, even if she is as ugly as an entertainment star who appears in various funny situations and makes people have nightmares at night. . That is to say, speculation should be based on speculation about mass psychology. Futures and securities are to some extent a form of speculation or gambling. For example, you don’t know the true value of a certain stock, but why do you spend 20 yuan to buy 1 share? Because you expect someone to pay a higher price to buy it from you. This is what Keynes called the "biggest fool" theory. The reason why you have no regard for the true value of something, even if it is worthless, and you are willing to pay a high price for it is because you expect that a bigger idiot will pay a higher price to buy it from you. Walk. The key to speculation is to judge whether there is a bigger fool than yourself. As long as you are not the biggest fool, it is a matter of winning more and losing less. If you can't find a bigger fool willing to pay a higher price to buy it from you, then you are the biggest fool. The most powerful explanation for the speculative frenzy that continues to unfold in Chinese and foreign history is the Biggest Idiot Theory. In 1593, a professor of botany from Vienna went to Leiden in the Netherlands to teach. He brought a plant cultivated in Turkey that the Dutch had never seen before - tulips. Unexpectedly, the Dutch were fascinated by it, so the professor decided that he could make a lot of money. His price was so high that the Dutch had no choice but to steal it. Late one night, a thief broke in and stole all the tulip bulbs that the professor had brought, and quickly sold out the bulbs at a much lower price than the professor's price. In this way, tulips were planted in the gardens of thousands of Dutch households. Later, the tulips were attacked by mosaic disease, which caused the petals to develop contrasting colored strips or "flames." What is dramatic is that diseased tulips have become treasures, so much so that the more bizarre a tulip bulb is, the higher its price. So some people began to hoard diseased tulips, and more people bought them from the hoarders at a higher price and sold them at a higher price. In 1638, the biggest fool appeared, and the tulip mania that lasted for five years ended tragically. The price of the bulbs dropped to the price of an onion. The British stock speculation frenzy that began in 1720 had such an episode: an unknown person founded a fictitious company. No one knew what kind of company it was from the beginning to the end, but nearly a thousand investors rushed to crowd the door when they subscribed. Not many people believed it was truly profitable, but expected bigger fools to appear, prices to rise, and money to be made themselves. Interestingly, Newton participated in this speculation and unfortunately became the biggest fool. He lamented: “I can calculate the movement of celestial bodies, but people’s madness is really hard to estimate.

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