The second quarter was originally the off-season of the coal industry, but since April this year, coal prices have been rising all the way, and the spot price of thermal coal has increased by 50% compared with the same period last year. Futures prices hit an eight-year high, and coking coal has also raised prices many times this year. The mainstream price of low sulfur coking coal in Linfen and Changzhi is about per ton 1730~ 1780 yuan. In April, the price per ton was raised by 260~280 yuan, and the price rose to a high level in recent two years.

So what makes coal prices rise again?

TF Securities's research report believes that the mismatch between supply and demand is the main reason for the increase in coal prices. On the supply side, various inspections such as safety and environmental protection have been frequent recently, and the supply of restricted construction market has dropped sharply. At the same time, the maintenance of Daqin line also affected the transportation of coal. On the demand side, the demand for coal and electricity by industrial enterprises in the cement chemical industry has increased. In addition, the original pure coal inventory of power plants is at a low level, the peak of electricity consumption in summer is approaching, and the willingness of power generation enterprises to replenish inventory is enhanced, resulting in a large release of demand side demand.

The department concerned asked that the price should not follow the trend.

According to the survey, the coal market is tight in supply and demand, and the off-season is not weak. In fact, the relevant authorities have held many meetings to ensure the release of advanced production capacity in coal supply. The National Development and Reform Commission even proposed at a recent meeting that coal production should be organized according to the highest output in winter, and it is not allowed to follow the trend of price increase, hoping to increase output and supply and stabilize prices. On the one hand, there is a growing demand gap, and on the other hand, there is a steady increase in the requirements of the competent authorities. Under such a complicated background, how will the market outlook of the coal sector be interpreted?

How long can the market coal price go up?

I think, despite the pressure of carbon emissions, the consumption of electric coal and the overall consumption of society will still be very considerable under the background of economic recovery and the upcoming peak of summer electricity consumption, and the current shortage of hydropower capacity. Therefore, the price of thermal coal will still be effectively supported in the short term. In fact, many listed media also gave optimistic expectations for the subsequent development of the coal market. A number of listed companies have predicted in a quarterly report that the accumulated net profit in the first half of this year will increase substantially compared with the same period of last year, while the net profit of Hengyun Coal and Electricity Company increased by as much as 204. 15% in the first quarter of this year. Will winter, which originally belonged to the coal market, become spring?