At present, the pricing power of the international gold market is mainly dominated by the American gold market and the London gold market, and the domestic gold price is determined according to the international gold price, which is highly correlated with the domestic gold price. According to statistics, in 2007, the spot price difference between international and domestic gold markets remained within 1% most of the time. This fully shows that the trend of domestic gold price is consistent with the trend of international gold price, and the factors affecting the change of international gold price will also affect the change of domestic gold price. For a long time, the international gold price has been mainly influenced by the following factors:

1, international geopolitical events

When the political situation or geopolitical international relations of important countries are expected to be unstable, geopolitics will be attached to the price of gold and have a significant impact. Such as the United States 9? After the 1 1 incident, the international gold price rose by nearly 6 percentage points that day; Recently, the international gold price broke through a record high, and it was also with former Pakistani Prime Minister Bei? It is related to the political turmoil caused by Bhutto's assassination.

2. The trend of the US dollar

The international gold market is mainly priced in US dollars, and there is a high degree of reverse linkage between the trend of US dollars and the price of gold. When the dollar is weak, people will sell dollars to buy gold to avoid the risk of falling dollars, which will lead to the rise of gold prices. On the contrary, if the dollar strengthens, the price of gold will fall.

3. Oil price

Oil is an important strategic and economic resource. Rising oil prices will often increase the production cost of oil as a raw material, which may lead to inflation. Investors will buy gold to preserve its value and make the price of gold rise. In addition, the fluctuation of oil prices will also affect the American economy and even the world economy, leading to the rise and fall of the dollar, and will also have an impact on the price of gold.

In addition, there are also factors that affect the trend of gold prices in major countries, such as stock markets, commodity prices and gold production, which will affect the fluctuation of gold prices by affecting the supply and demand of gold.

Second, pay attention to the influence of spot price of gold in China on futures price.

At present, the spot price of gold in China is mainly formed in Shanghai Gold Exchange, while the domestic gold futures price will be dominated by Shanghai Futures Exchange. The spread between the spot price and the futures price of gold should be kept within a reasonable range. If the spread between spot price and futures price is too large, a large amount of arbitrage funds will be involved in the two markets to obtain risk-free arbitrage income, so that the spread between spot price and futures price of gold will return to a reasonable range. This reasonable spread range is mainly determined by the amount of expenses incurred in the process of trading, holding and delivery.

At present, the physical specifications of the products delivered by Shanghai Futures Exchange are basically the same as those of Shanghai Gold Exchange, both of which are 3 kg gold ingots with a purity of 99.95%, which provides convenient conditions for physical circulation and arbitrage in the two markets. However, at present, the warehouse receipts of the two exchanges cannot be exchanged, which makes the mutual circulation of gold futures and spot markets increase the cost.

Third, pay attention to the impact of RMB exchange rate appreciation on China gold price.

In recent years, the RMB exchange rate has maintained an appreciation trend. In 2007, the RMB appreciated by 6.4% against the US dollar, which means that the price of gold denominated in US dollars will decrease if it is denominated in RMB. According to statistics, the price of gold in London rose by 30.87% in 2007, while the price of gold in Shanghai Gold Exchange in 1995 only rose by 22.68%, with an increase of 8. 19%, which was higher than the appreciation of RMB exchange rate. Some professional organizations predict that the exchange rate of RMB/USD will fall to 6.64 by the end of 2008, which means that RMB will appreciate by 10% against USD. According to this estimate, the increase of domestic gold price in 2008 will also lag behind the increase of international gold price by about 10%.

To sum up, there are many factors that affect the domestic gold futures price, and these factors will have an important impact on the gold futures price through interaction or chain reaction. Among them, the international gold price is the dominant factor that determines the domestic gold price, and the domestic spot gold price and RMB exchange rate are also important factors that affect the domestic gold futures price.